FanDuel NBA: Monday Value Plays

Written by

Published on May 24, 2021

Monday's two-game playoff offering will be a little easier to predict since we have a better sense of the team's rotation as we head into their Game 2 matchups. Although we shouldn't solely rely on them as result indicators, we can gauge with some certainty how the minute allotment will shake out.

Heat @ Bucks (Bucks -4.5, O/U: 222)

TOP PERFORMERS (GAME 1)

MIA Goran Dragic 27.9 FDFP (35 minutes)

MIA Duncan Robinson 27.4 FDFP (36 minutes)

MIA Jimmy Butler 44 FDFP (46 minutes)

MIL Giannis Antetokounmpo 59.1 FFP (45 minutes)

MIL Khris Middleton 47.2 FDFP (45 minutes)

MIL Jrue Holiday 41.7 FDFP (42 minutes)

Things didn't shake out how we hoped for Miami, with Bam Adebayo failing to produce enough to make the top three. Aside from that glaring omission, the other interesting adjustment is the $100 differential between Khris Middleton ($7,900) and Jrue Holiday ($7,800) tonight. Both played well, but there was a 5.5 FDFP differential between them, and at a similar price, you aren't getting the same value from Holiday. Although Duncan Robinson ($5,000) would break 5x value if he turned in a similar performance, there's no guarantee that he will stay hot. Goran Dragic ($5,500) has a better chance to yield a similar total.

If we look at this game as a whole, it doesn't set up as well compared to the POR/DEN matchup in terms of DFS production. To flesh out a sensible strategy, we need first to establish where we can get value below the FanDuel median price of $6,777. Aside from Dragic and Robinson, neither team provided us with much in terms of budget selections. There is a little more value to be found in the other game, but going back to the well with Dragic appears to be the best avenue here. Although the Heat will live and die with Jimmy Butler, I will wait a game to see if he can get back to the playoff production he demonstrated last year.

ENDORSEMENTS (MIA/MIL)

PG Goran Dragic ($5,500)
SF Khris Middleton ($7,900)
PF Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900)
SF Duncan Robinson ($5,000)
PG Jrue Holiday ($7,900)

Trail Blazers @ Nuggets (Nuggets -1.5, O/U: 226.5)

TOP PERFORMERS (GAME 1)

POR Damian Lillard 53.9 FDFP (40 minutes)

POR Jusuf Nurkic 40.9 FDFP (33 minutes)

POR CJ McCollum 35.7 FDFP (31 minutes)

DEN Nikola Jokic 53.7 FDFP (35 minutes)

DEN Michael Porter 39.8 FDFP (37 minutes)

DEN Aaron Gordon 29.1 FDFP (28 minutes)

Let's first look at the two surprises from this list. All things considered, Jusuf Nurkic ($8,000) played well against Nikola Jokic and unexpectedly met value in what should have been a much rougher night. A lot of that is due to a solid minute count, which has sometimes evaded him. The other surprise is Aaron Gordon ($5,600), who popped up as a decent value. Michael Porter ($7,600) has a salary as low as you'll see, and based on his Game 1 performance, he gets clicked immediately. I also liked CJ McCollum ($7,500) to maintain a strong FDFP-per minute showing, and he also ranks high. Although Giannis found his way into the top 3 above, we have a big decision to make with our elites in this game. Do we seal up the C spot with Nikola Jokic ($10,700) or shore up point guard with Damian Lillard ($10,100)? We only have four viable centers at varying prices, and our baseline production for point guard is pretty wide, so it is a tough call. To find the perfect lineup, I think you have to seal up the valuable center spot with Jokic and largely pivot to Holiday as your top point guard instead of Lillard.

ENDORSEMENTS

SF Michael Porter ($7,600)
C Nikola Jokic ($10,700)
SG CJ McCollum ($7,500)

BUDGET PLAYS

I think we can safely put Dragic, Robinson and Gordon into this category already, but to fill out the remainder of your lineups, you'll need more players at lower salaries.

PF Robert Covington, POR ($4,600), SF Norman Powell, POR ($6,200) or Carmelo Anthony ($4,400)

RoCo provided 17.5 FDFP but played 34 minutes. Powell actually bested him with 37 minutes. I think Powell is in an excellent spot to bounce back, but I can't stomach the price, making Covington a far better play. I'm also not a fan of Powell due to the increased involvement of Carmelo Anthony, who put up the ball 10 times in Game 1. Covington, followed by Anthony, are the best values here.

PG Monte Morris, DEN ($4,300)

Morris only played 18 minutes but managed to put together points and assists for a decent total. In terms of future value, he's a sound selection because his minutes will almost certainly trend up as he comes back from injury, and if Game 1 was any indication, the scrappy Facundo Campazzo was getting picked apart throughout much of the contest.

PG Anfernee Simons, POR ($4,100)

Portland only played with an eight-man rotation, so Simons isn't the garbage-time candidate you think he is. He showed up in every quarter and had almost equal production in the first as he did in the fourth. He's the primary relief at the guard position, so I wouldn't roster him with Lillard or McCollum due to correlation concerns, but he'll have great value in a grouping with Holiday or Dragic.

SG Kendrick Nunn, MIA ($4,800)

Nunn didn't do much in Game 1, but he's bound to improve if you look at his numbers this season. Of course, we said that about Nunn in the playoffs last year, but he ended up in the doghouse somehow and barely played. It worked well for the Heat last year, so are they sticking with the previous year's scheme? Since he played 22 minutes, I think he'll still be a factor.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.