This article is part of our DraftKings NBA series.
Slate Overview
IND vs. WAS (-3), O/U: 237
The Pacers and Wizards played twice in May. Both games had massive point totals of 295 and 265. Tonight's game should be slightly less frenetic, as they usually are come playoff time, but you can expect a fast pace and plenty of points, as neither team plays much defense. Russell Westbrook continues to put up historic numbers, while Domantas Sabonis has been carrying the short-handed Pacers. Both players are close to locks tonight and will most certainly be chalky, so it will be important to find other ways to differentiate. Consider leaving some salary on the table, captaining some of the cheaper players or planning for a blowout.
Injuries to Monitor
Malcolm Brogdon (hamstring): QUESTIONABLE
Brogdon returned from a 10-game absence and played 21 minutes in Tuesday's win over the Hornets. He's listed as questionable again for tonight, but it's safe to assume that he will play and likely be on some type of minutes restriction.
Edmond Sumner (knee): QUESTIONABLE
Sumner returned from a four-game absence and played seven minutes off the bench in Tuesday's win over the Hornets. Assuming he plays again tonight, it seems unlikely that he would see significant minutes.
Caris LeVert (COVID-19 protocols) and Myles Turner (toe): OUT
LeVert's status will be re-evaluated next week, and Turner is still "a ways away" from returning. Justin Holiday and Oshae Brissett started in their absence on Tuesday.
Elite Players
Russell Westbrook ($13,400)
There isn't much else to say about Westbrook at this point. He's expensive tonight, but I think the only reasons to consider a fade would have to be game theory-based. Here are a couple of scenarios where he isn't likely to be on the winner: If Sabonis, Beal and Brogdon all smash, the lack of viable punts would prohibit spending for Westbrook. If the Pacers blowout the Wizards and secondary players like McConnell, Brissett and McDermott have nice games, Westbrook's modest fantasy point total wouldn't be optimal due to his salary. It's a tough fade, so make sure your lineup fits the script.
Domantas Sabonis ($11,200)
The Pacers played the Wizards twice in May, and Sabonis put up a whopping 74.25 DK points in both games. The same things I said about Westbrook apply here. He's likely going to smash in this matchup, and there aren't many reasons to fade. He might even be a better play than Russ based on salary.
Bradley Beal ($10,200)
Beal has put up 40+ fantasy points in seven consecutive games while topping 50 DK points twice in that span. He has considerable scoring upside in this matchup and won't be as popular as the other studs.
Malcolm Brogdon ($10,000)
Brogdon put up 28.5 DK points in 21 minutes Tuesday in his first action since April 29th, and he's likely to be on some type of minutes restriction again. That, plus his inflated salary, will have most people off him tonight, but the matchup with the Wizards is a great spot, and I'd expect him to see 30+ minutes in a close game. The likelihood of him going overlooked makes him a good tournament play.
Expected Chalk
Russell Westbrook ($13,400) and Domantas Sabonis ($11,200)
Normally, I wouldn't highlight the two most expensive players as expected chalk, but that's how it will be tonight for a couple of reasons. First, they have shown higher and more consistent ceilings than anyone else in the NBA over the last month. Second, there isn't any cheap value that stands out as elite, so I wouldn't expect any of the punts to be overly popular. I assume people will just lock in Westbrook and Sabonis and try to get different by switching up the cheaper plays.
Value Picks
T.J. McConnell ($8,000)
McConnell is coming off 34.75 DK points in 25 minutes on Tuesday. He was on his way to another 50-fantasy-point night had the game not been over by the third quarter. He will continue to see a bump in minutes and usage in the absence of Caris LeVert.
Doug McDermott ($6,200)
McDermott is likely to get another start at small forward. He's been consistent of late, putting up 24+ DK points in five consecutive games, and his three-point shooting gives him nice upside.
Ish Smith ($5,200)
Smith has scored 35+ fantasy points in consecutive games. If he sees upwards of 30 minutes again tonight, he's arguably the best value on the slate.
Justin Holiday ($5,000)
Holiday should play 30+ minutes in a close game tonight, and while he's not been a consistent fantasy producer, that type of run makes him viable for an affordable salary. We've seen ceiling games from him in the past, but they've been few and far between. He's topped 30 DK points in just one of his last 10 games.
Goga Bitadze ($4,200)
Bitadze smashed value on Tuesday when he put up 37.5 DK points in just 18 minutes. The minutes are anything but safe, but it's worth noting that the Wizards always play with a center on the floor, which could open up more of a role for him tonight.
