Todd's Takes: Running, Not Running and Overrunning

Hedging Your Bets

Let's rewind to Tuesday night. It's the ninth inning in Coors Field with the Rockies and Guardians tied at three. Andres Gimenez led off the top of the frame with a single, then Steven Kwan collected an infield hit. Austin Hedges steps into the box against Daniel Bard. C.J. Cron is practically holding his hand to protect against a bunt while Ryan McMahon is in a few steps at third. 

Hedges indeed bunts, but it goes foul. The next pitch is a ball. The announcers note the defensive alignment and opine Hedges needs to force McMahon to field it with Cron so close. Hedges failed to heed their advice, instead popping a foul bunt into catcher Brian Serven's awaiting mitt.

Myles Straw took a third strike, then Amed Rosario grounded to the pitcher. Cleveland won the game in the 10th, so all was forgiven.

The failed bunt got me thinking. The Guardians had two excellent baserunners on... should they have tried a double steal instead? Granted, one can argue they should have just had Hedges, Straw and Rosario try to drive home the runs the old-fashioned way. My self-posed question was more about probability of success. Which had a better chance of success, Hedges laying down a successful bunt or Gimenez sliding into third safely?

I went down the rabbit hole of determining the success rate of a sac bunt, but my data source wasn't granular enough. I'm assuming there is a way to search one of the sites archiving each play, but I'm not adept at that process. I relied on the Internet to set the success rate between 70 and 80 percent. That's right around the same rate as stealing third.

So now it comes down to the individuals.

Hedges already has three sac bunts this season. He laid down seven last season, adding five in the abbreviated 2020 campaign, so he's a capable bunter. 

Gimenez is a career 23-for-25 stealing, but he's only tried to nab third once, and he was successful. The league-wide rate stealing third is 78%. Bard is not good at holding runners (11 steals against in 92 innings over the past two seasons), though that's mostly about stealing second, but it speaks to a longer delivery. No one has attempted to steal in Serven's short time behind the plate.

Maybe it's too close to call, as Hedges can bunt, but I think trying a double steal in that scenario would have been a slightly better ploy.

Practice Makes Perfect

You never know what you'll see at a ballgame. Tuesday in St. Louis, Nolan Gorman walked to load the bases with two outs, then this happened:

If Gorman were forced out at second, the run coming in from third would not have counted. However, because he was safe, the run indeed went into the books. There is some argument whether Gorman needed to run through the base to be safe, but what I find fascinating is this is a play the Cardinals practice. Further, that's a 22-year-old rookie with less than a month of MLB time who had the wherewithal to pull it off.

Spoiler alert: I talk about this play with Brian Walton from The Cardinal Nation on Thursday's Rotowire podcast.

An Afternoon House Call

Yesterday's viewing started out on a sour note as I had written up Alex Faedo as one of the day's top streamers in my Wednesday ESPN blurbs. However, while the call didn't get better, the call of the game featured a pleasant surprise when Dr. Tom House joined the Tigers broadcast for a multi-inning visit. 

In short, it was fantastic. Kirk Gibson did a lot of the interviewing which made it even better since he shared some of his personal experiences. Some of the topics covered were pitch counts, arm recovery, youth baseball, playing multiple sports, how Dr. House lost a job after working with Randy Johnson and his work with some of the top NFL quarterbacks, including Drew Brees.

If you have the ability to watch previously recorded games, trust me, it's worth checking out.

Would it Dong?

One of my favorite Twitter follows is WouldItDong. It shows long flyballs and indicates in how many venues those flyballs would have cleared the fence. As an unabashed park factor wonk, I find some of the results fascinating, especially those which are counterintuitive to how the park is perceived.

For instance, Citizens Bank Park generally embellished power. However, there are some quirks which hinder homers, such as:

Following this feed is a great way to get a feel for the so-called lucky long balls, as well as helping to see why a player's expected homers may differ from his actual. In terms of Statcast's expected stats, assuming they agree Hoskins' triple would have been a homer in 24 of 30 parks, it would have been credited as .8 HR, with the other .2 worth of outcomes divided among doubles, triple and out.

You're Not the Boss of Me

In yesterday's Diamondbacks-Reds game, it was tied 3-3 in the bottom of the eighth with one out when Josh Rojas clearly ran through a stop sign at third base to score the go-ahead run. I was curious what others thought, so I posted this Twitter poll:

The pool was still ongoing as I'm typing this, so the results may not be viewable, but the top two are close around 40 percent. "A" is a tick below at 39.8 percent while "B" is 42.9 percent.

Personally, I'm not sure. Completely anecdotally, I thought about how back in the 60's, Red Auerbach would yell at Bill Russell, figuring if he could yell at Russell, he could yell at anyone. Of course, the analogy is poor, compared to today's culture (not to mention the difference in sports), but it was amusing to ponder.

My friend and colleague Kris Olson from BaseballHQ sagely pointed out the manager's action likely would be different from player to player, perhaps giving a veteran who is known for playing the right way a pass, while using it as a teaching experience for youngsters.

Near No-No and a Change of Heart

The story of Wednesday's slate was Tyler Anderson's 8.1 inning effort, allowing just one hit to Shohei Ohtani. I'll let others discuss his throwing a career-high 123 pitches for a team with an injury-depleted staff. I found myself actively routing for the veteran, which is not my norm.

As a kid, I was hoping for a no-hitter every time I waddled up to my seat in Fenway Park (maybe two or three times a season). As I became more...um...statistically driven, I considered no-hitters mostly luck, having seen oodles of better pitched games where the hurler allowed multiple knocks.

However, last night, I was caught up in the moment. Obviously, this is how most were, and it's good for the game.

Maybe a no-hitter is mostly luck, but baseball is a game featuring events, and my spreadsheet approach admittedly cost me some utils of enjoyment over the past few seasons.

That said, I still don't care about hitting for a cycle.

Box Score Blitz

Jon Berti stole two more bases, albeit in a losing cause as the Marlins' Tanner Scott yielded a three-run walk off homer to Phillies backup catcher Garrett Stubbs, playing because of the proverbial day game after a night game. Kyle Gibson went eight frames, but left behind 1-0, so we have to wait at least another day to learn if our Seranthony Dominguez gambit pays off.

Luis Garcia cruised to his fourth win as Houston took control early, defeating the Rangers 9-2. Garcia fanned nine with no walks in six frames, yielding just four hits and one unearned run. After surrendering just 19 homers in 155.1 innings last season, Garcia has already served up 12 in only 66 frames this year, including five over his previous 17.1 stanzas (one yesterday). This isn't a case of suggesting to "buy low" on a guy sporting a solid 3.41 ERA, but if he's on your roster, there is a good chance his homers fall, with his ERA coming along for the ride.

If you drafted Scott Barlow as your second (or third) closer, he came through with his seventh save yesterday. The problem is that towards the end of draft season, his price edged up to "late first closer" range. 

Sonny Gray wasn't involved in the decision, but it was encouraging to see him throw five scoreless frames in his return from the IL as the Twins shut out the Mariners, 5-0. Gray fanned three, without issuing a walk, though he threw only 63 percent (41-for-65) of his pitches for strikes.

After fanning eight in 5.2 innings last time out, Spencer Strider punched out 11 yesterday, also in 5.2 frames to record his third victory in the Braves 8-2 win in Washington. It could be a bit before his DFS price and strikeout prop number catches up, availing a window to profit.

Nestor Cortes and Shane McClanahan fell a bit short of an old-fashioned pitcher's duel, but both pitched well in the Yankees 4-3 win in the Bronx. Kyle Higashioka was the second backup catcher to propel his team to a win with a three-run shot on McClanahan in the fifth. Aaron Judge took the Rays righty deep in the first for his 25th in the first inning.

Jose Berrios continued to overcome a slow start after allowing three runs in seven innings to the Orioles. Perhaps a better outcome was anticipated against Baltimore, but Berrios did fan eight without issuing a free pass. He yielded a two-run homer to Ryan Mountcastle as well as Adley Rutschman's first career dong. The Jays eventually won 7-6 in ten frames.

Corbin Burnes threw a workmanlike six stanzas, fanning eight with no walks, limiting the Mets to just two runs as the Brewers prevailed 10-2 in Citi Field. Willy Adames recorded his second multi-hit and multi-RBI game in his last three. Hopefully this is a harbinger for the rest of the season. Kolten Wong hopes to return over the weekend to give the Milwaukee another needed boost.

The Red Sox's offense continued to roll, but the story in Fenway Park was Josh Winckowski rebounding after being lit up by the Orioles for his MLB debut in late May. About two weeks shy of his 24th birthday, Winckowski was named the International League Pitcher of the Week prior to his callup. With Nathan Eovaldi and Garrett Whitlock out, Winckowski is slated for an alluring date with the Tigers next Monday.

Jack Flaherty made his 2022 debut, throwing 60 pitches (37 strikes) in three innings. He wasn't helped by the usually reliable Cardinals defense, surrendering a total of four runs, though just two were earned. He fanned three with two walks.

The Padres routed the Cubs 19-5 in Wrigley Field. I'll backburner the position players pitching harangue, but trust me, it's coming. Well before Frank Schwindel was asked to throw (another) inning, Caleb Kilian was roughed up for five runs in four frames, bringing much of the damage unto himself with five walks and no strikeouts.

It's not often defense is the story of a 7-5 game in Coors Field, but such was the case as Steven Kwan possibly saved the game with a full-extension diving grab in the Indians 7-5 win over the Rockies.