Spring Training Prospect Mailbag

Spring is here! I answered a bunch of listener questions from my Twitter followers on Wednesday's RotoWire Prospect Podcast:

You can listen to the RotoWire Prospect Podcast or subscribe on your podcast app by searching "RotoWire Prospect Podcast".

Here is the written version of the podcast. Feel free to add your own question in the comments, on Twitter or on Discord.

Max Wollner: How does Gavin Lux's injury change your perspective on Miguel Vargas this season?

It lessens concerns with Vargas and Chris Taylor that they'd be in danger of not playing much with any struggles. Mostly, it makes Miguel Rojas a viable late-round option in 15-team mixed leagues.

Finny: Can you talk about how you feel long term about Bryce Miller and Junior Caminero? Their offseason helium has gotten insane…

Caminero has a chance to be a four-category beast at third base. In the outlook I wrote on Caminero a few months ago, I said "this is the type of hitting prospect worth paying up to speculate on." We're probably at the point now where there are managers in leagues who are too desperate to acquire him, as seemingly everyone wants to get in pre-breakout.

Daniel Harting: Realistic ceiling for Bryce Miller?

Realistic ceiling is a high-strikeout SP2. He could also be a top-five closer, but I expect him to make it as a starter. He's mostly a two-pitch pitcher with a dominant fastball and plus slider, so not a finished product. I'd be open to trading him this offseason or this season if someone is aggressively pursuing him.

Toolsy: With Daniel Espino facing another lost year, do I stay the course or offload the risk? Would you rather have Tanner Bibee?

I tried to make a point with my Jan. 15 ranking of Espino as the ninth best pitching prospect that he's extremely risky, we already knew he dealt with a shoulder issue last season. I'm glad I had Brandon Pfaadt ahead of him, but I should have pushed Espino even lower. Now he's in a terrible position for a dynasty pitching prospect, where the writing is on the wall that he doesn't have a starter's durability, but he's too talented for his big-league team to give up on that dream. He might not pitch at all this season, he might pitch 50 innings, and then in 2024 he'll have a hard time getting up to 100 innings no matter how healthy he is. I'm already dreading trying to slot him on the next update. If it were me, I would have already unloaded the risk, which is now a 10 out of 10, if it wasn't before. If you go back and read the last four preseason outlooks I wrote on Espino, the phrases "extreme risk" and "career derailed by injuries" were there even before the 2022 shoulder issue. This is why you don't pay up for pitching prospects who aren't big-league ready. As for Espino vs. Bibee, I'd take Bibee (or preferably yet unrealistically Pfaadt, Gavin Stone or Hayden Wesneski). 

Finny: I'm having a hard time buying into these three industry darlings: Curtis Mead (Rays and positional concerns), Jackson Merrill (Padres development hasn't produced but seems to hype up guys), Evan Carter (power?). Can you explain if I'm crazy or if there's some validity?

My only concern with Mead is just hoping his elbow strain from last season doesn't pop back up. He played third base Tuesday, so so far, so good on that front. One of the best pure hitters in the minors, nobody is standing in his way on the Rays' infield depth chart. 

With Merrill, I agree about Padres prospects getting overvalued, especially a few years ago. They've had some developmental hits and misses, but I don't think their track record with position players is so bad that it should affect Merrill's dynasty value.

I'm with you on Carter, and he was someone who I kind of wanted to rank lower than 34th on the last update. He seems incredibly safe as a future leadoff hitter, but it's possible it's more like Andrew Benintendi or Brandon Nimmo production in fantasy. As boring as that sounds, it's actually not a bad outcome for a player ranked outside the top 30.

Danny J: Thoughts on Brandon Walter? His stats rule…

Yeah, I've been snagging Walter late in some draft and holds. He's easily my favorite of Boston's next wave of SP prospects. Who knows when he'll get a look, but I think he could be a mid-rotation starter. He's got three good pitches and excellent control. 

Beerbot: Would you drop Brayan Rocchio for Junior Caminero in an OBP league where timeline isn't an issue?

Timeline should always be an issue unless you're 100 percent sure the league will exist in six or seven years. I'm taking Rocchio over Caminero, unless you're 3-to-4 years away from contending. It's hard to separate the ETA aspect in a question like this, because what Rocchio has achieved at levels Caminero has never played at matters in terms of how confidently we can project these guys.

Brian Mac: Will we see Masyn Winn in 2023 and will he move to CF?

We could maybe see Winn in 2023, but I have no idea why he'd be playing CF. He's the Cardinals SS of the future if all goes well.

Stretch: With Joe Musgrove out for a while, is Michael Wacha a good pickup in points leagues?

Yeah, sure. His rotation spot is super safe as long as he's healthy, regardless of Musgrove's injury. Just don't expect more than 130 innings from Wacha.

Brian Mac: Thoughts on Adrian Morejon finally stepping into a rotation?

I've been out on Morejon as a starter for a long time. He just doesn't have starter's durability, and he's shown that to us time and again. I don't even think he's durable enough to have a James Paxton breakout year that suckers keep chasing for the rest of his career.

Ryan: Are there any skills/habits the best dynasty managers you know have that you're trying to improve on?

Well the best dynasty managers are better than me at trading. The way I'm trying to get better at that is to trade less. I'm not a patient trader, because of how busy I am with other leagues and with fantasy baseball being my job, so at times I've pulled the trigger on trades without taking the time to work for a better deal. Given how well I do in the draft and on the waiver wire, not trading (unless it's an obvious win) is going to make me better, I think.

Cody Martin: What are your thoughts on Prelander Berroa?

I love Berroa's fastball/slider combo. His stuff is completely disgusting. I know some people think he's a reliever all the way, and while I wrote last week that he's more likely to end up in the bullpen, I'm not closing the book on him making the two-pitch thing work as a five and dive guy.

BMo: Would love to hear more about Xzavion Curry, Louie Varland, Darius Vines, Justin Yeager and Ryan Murphy

Curry is nowhere near as good as his minor league stats indicate. He's more Eli Morgan, Konnor Pilkington than he is Shane Bieber or Triston McKenzie. He's 5-foot-10 with no plus pitches and in a super crowded org, so not interesting at all for fantasy unless you want him as one of your last picks in an AL-only or something like that. 

Varland is a back-end starter/swing man who could maybe outperform that projection due to his control and deception.

Vines is my favorite of these guys. He's got one of the best changeups in the minors and is in a great organization. Probably more of a No. 4 or No. 5, but I'm rostering him in dynasty leagues.

Yeager could be a late-inning arm with improved control, but I wouldn't roster him until he shows signs of that.

Murphy had kind of a lost season last year due to back and elbow injuries. No plus pitches, but could be a back-end starter if he bounces back this year and can build back up over 100 innings.

Danny J: What do you expect from Lazaro Montes this year?

Extreme exit velocities and tape measure home runs. I have no idea how the hit tool will translate stateside. He struck out too much in the Dominican Summer League, but he also walked a ton and had an OPS north of 1.000. He is probably a Jhonkensy Noel type, but there are some really high-end outcomes (think Yordan Alvarez) if he develops a good hit tool.

Bounce Back Athletics: Brandon Pfaadt ETA? I can understand Ryne Nelson, but Zach Davies?

I think Pfaadt is up within the first month or so and wouldn't rule out him winning a job this spring. He's a finished product. Davies is there to absorb innings in the event that the rotation isn't healthy or one of the youngsters needs more time at Triple-A. It will be pretty easy to just move him to long relief whenever they're ready to start Pfaadt's clock. I'd co-sign the idea of stashing Pfaadt in most formats even if he opens at Triple-A.

David M. DiCenzo: Do you see guys like Noah Denoyer, Richard Fitts, Tristan Beck and Abner Uribe potentially making the rotation some day?

I'd recommend checking out my reliever rankings to reference which guys are likely to start and which guys are likely to relieve. I think Denoyer could start, but not sure how committed the Orioles will be on that front given that he is already on the 40-man roster and the questions about whether he can handle a starter's workload. Fitts and Beck TBD, both need to add a quality third pitch. Uribe is a reliever all the way.

Artur Domingues: Thoughts on Endy Rodriguez for 2023 and beyond? Where do you envision the Pirates playing him and when will he debut?

He's my top ranked catching prospect. I expect him to hit for a high AVG with a high OBP, maybe a .265 AVG, .350 OBP at peak. Around 20 HR with a handful of SBs. The main appeal is that he's a catcher who won't hurt you anywhere and will play a ton. His floor is very high. He could get starts at DH and maybe second base on days he's not catching. I'd guess he is up in May or June, along the same lines as Oneil Cruz last year.

J ShipD: What's the type of return you'd cash out Elly De La Cruz for in a dynasty league before he debuts? Is a player like George Kirby enough?

I have Kirby at 63 and Elly at 83 on the dynasty rankings, so yeah, that'd be a great target if you're looking to cash out Elly. Zac Gallen, Cristian Javier or one of the elite closers (Emmanuel Clase or Edwin Diaz) would be some other MLB pitchers I'd flip him for if that's what you're looking to do.

M Festtt: What guys in the lower levels could rocket to MLB?

I don't think these guys will rocket to MLB, but of the best players in the lower levels, Jackson Holliday, Termarr Johnson, Jackson Merrill and Emmanuel Rodriguez all have a chance to move very quickly. Of those, I think Merrill is the best bet to get to the big leagues way faster than people expect.

Casey Unrath: Are there any generational talents or someone who could be a top-10 fantasy pick for multiple years you're ranking lower because they are still a year or two away from the majors?

Just go to the top 400, click on add filter, and make it a 2024 or greater ETA. Druw Jones, James Wood, Jackson Holliday, Termarr Johnson, Elijah Green, Jackson Merrill, Jasson Dominguez, etc…

Toolsy: Who are some of your favorite buy-now guys before they take off?

I'm going to focus on guys I think are undervalued. Royce Lewis is a buy. He could be getting drafted in the fifth or sixth round in redraft next year if he doesn't suffer setbacks or re-injury. 

Curtis Mead is a total boss, and I think he could be valued as a prospect in the 20-30 range in trade right now, whereas I think he's pushing towards the top-10. 

Everson Pereira, Emmanuel Rodriguez, Junior Caminero, Josue De Paula and Miguel Bleis are some others whose dynasty value could explode this season.

Ulysses: Are you at all concerned about Jordan Walker's 6-6, 250-pound body type holding up until age 29-30?

I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if he dealt with similar durability stuff that has popped up for Yordan Alvarez, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton at times in their careers, but he's also a better athlete than all those guys, so it's not factored into his ranking. 

Dandy F Chiggins: Is Jordan Walker's ceiling something like Julio Rodriguez? He seems faster than previously believed and maybe the power could be 80-grade? What does his ceiling line look like?

No! Just a different caliber of prospect. I've been hearing this comp from other prospect analysts since the Arizona Fall League and I think it does a disservice to Walker and underappreciates Rodriguez. They're tall, they played in the AFL and they can steal more bases than some people expect, but despite those similarities I don't like this comp. Rodriguez is one of the best prospects I've ever ranked or will ever rank. Walker is my fourth ranked prospect right now and couldn't justifiably be higher than three. Walker could have a 40-homer season or multiple 40-homer seasons and he could steal double-digit bases, but I don't think he'll ever do both of those things in the same season. Rodriguez also projected for a plus hit tool for years, while Baseball America and FanGraphs have Walker as a 50-grade and 45-grade hitter respectively. Walker's got a very high ceiling, but he's not J-Rod. One way I'll try to describe the difference to my eyes: Rodriguez moves like he's 6-foot-2 in the box and in the field and on the bases. Walker moves like he's a fast 6-foot-6. This leads me to believe Rodriguez will be a premium athlete for a decade and Walker will lose a little bit of his quick-twitch athleticism each year as he matures.

Ulysses: Long term, Eury Perez or Gavin Williams?

Perez, but really whichever guy stays healthier (obviously we don't know the answer to that).

Paul: You have 10 SPs in a row from 117 to 126 (Cade Cavalli, Ryne Nelson, Cooper Hjerpe, Brandon Barriera, Jarlin Susana, Cade Horton, Dylan Lesko, Bubba Chandler, Connor Prielipp, Emmet Sheehan). Which ones are your favorites to target in dynasty leagues? 

I've already targeted Hjerpe in a FYPD in a dynasty league where I was light on pitching. He's my favorite pitcher from last year's class. I also think Prielipp is undervalued in FYPD, so he's a target. The rest seem to be properly valued for the most part. Nelson is the best bet to provide value this year, and he could move into the top 100 on the next update with a strong spring. Barriera/Susana/Lesko/Chandler are extremely risky and have super high ceilings and are a ways away, so no strong preference between those four. Sheehan's got one of my favorite pitches in the minors (his fastball) and I'm betting he'll provide fantasy value one way or another. I lumped those arms together so that each person can kind of go after the archetype of pitcher they prefer from that group.

Sewerleague: Which pitcher is most likely to contribute positive MLB stats in 2023 out of Tanner Bibee, Emerson Hancock, Michael Grove and Taj Bradley?

Bradley. Hancock is a back-end starter/middle reliever and is somehow still getting by on name value. Grove is basically Mitch White 2.0. Maybe he gets some wins if the Dodgers deal with injuries, but he could also hurt your ratios and make less than five starts. Bibee is the next best bet behind Bradley, but it's still crowded there even with the Cody Morris shoulder issue. Bradley has a clearer path and is a better prospect than Bibee. He is also good enough to provide fantasy value in relief if the Rays opt to break him in out of the bullpen.

Tim Buckenowski: I am picking at the end of the first round in my FYPD. Is it better to trade for a pick in next year's FYPD or hope someone like Spencer Jones falls?

I know most of you know this, but I don't follow amateurs year round. Like, at all. I study them in the couple months leading up to the draft and in the month leading up to Jan. 15, but I'm fully focused on pro prospects right now. I generally think next year's draft class gets massively overrated, especially in the fall and winter, as so much can change leading up to the draft. If you knew for certain you could get a top-three pick, then sure, I'd take that over a late pick this year, but you can get players who turn into great prospects late in the first round this year. I'd suggest looking at Cooper Hjerpe or Jett Williams or just read my FYPD Blueprint.

Banks Thompson: Need to drop two of Brennen Davis, Hayden Wesneski, Aaron Ashby, Kyle Manzardo, Marcus Stroman and Tyler Mahle in a dynasty points format with a win-now team that also has good future pieces….

I'd drop Davis (extreme risk) and Stroman (no upside). Maybe drop Wesneski over Stroman if you think you'd use Stroman early in the season.

Jason Erb: Who would you take in a H2H dynasty, Kumar Rocker, Sixto Sanchez, Nate Pearson?

Pearson by a mile, even though he's a reliever only. He is humming at triple digits this spring and could be next up for saves if something happens to Jordan Romano. I don't expect Rocker or Sanchez to ever be as good again as Pearson is now.

Ross Redcay: Looks like you're pretty out on James Triantos with him dropping off the list. Is it just a solid hit tool with no pop?

Not out on him, but don't really see much to like besides the hit tool. He's a bad defender, so if you're going to be at the bottom of the defensive spectrum and you don't have plus power, you're probably not going to play.

Ross Redcay: Why are you lower on Jace Jung?

He's a terrible defender in an organization with zero track record of developing and he didn't hit for power in his debut. Just not a recipe for a player moving up the rankings, and not the type of player you'd ever strongly regret passing on.

Matt Angelo: Can you explain why you are a bit lower on Gabriel Gonzalez than others in the industry?

I lumped all my favorite unproven teenagers from Brady House at 86 to Anthony Gutierrez at 116, and Gonzalez fits right in that mix. Gonzalez could climb quite high with a great season, but he doesn't have a great body and I'm trying to not push teenagers higher than that range unless I really believe in them, like Junior Caminero and Jett Williams. 

Nick: With Nick Loftin's versatility around the diamond, do you think he can break camp as the Royals starting third baseman? 

Did Nick Loftin send in this question? That seems like a stretch for a guy who hasn't been better than league average since he was at High-A as a 22-year-old. You're right about the versatility, and there was a time I thought he was a sneaky fantasy prospect, but I'd guess he gets a look as a bench piece this year and if he performs well, maybe he will play regularly somewhere next season. 

Downtown: Who are some "Under the Radar" rookies that could surprise with real 2023 value?

There isn't really such a thing as an "under the radar" prospect that I believe in that you guys haven't been made aware of. Brandon Walter comes to mind, who we've already touched on. Jordan Diaz, Addison Barger, Maikel Garcia, Mike Baumann, Joey Ortiz, Robert Gasser, Matt Wallner also come to mind. Perhaps Wallner fits the question the best, as he's basically free in most formats due to the strikeout issues. I think he's very similar to a young Joey Gallo — maybe not quite 80-grade power like Gallo, but someone with the potential to provide a lot of value in OBP leagues, even if he's a batting-average drain in standard roto leagues.

Kevin Thurber: Are you high on Logan O'Hoppe and Sal Frelick long term?

I am. I really liked Jesse Roche's Will Smith ceiling comp on O'Hoppe (from the Baseball Prospectus TINO podcast), as they've got very similar skill sets. We'll see how it translates for O'Hoppe over a full season, but I'm fine with him being my C2 if I miss out on Danny Jansen and Keibert Ruiz.

I expect Frelick to basically be Steven Kwan 2.0, with a touch more power and maybe more speed.

Kevin Thurber: Who's next year's Andrew Painter and Jackson Chourio?

With the understanding these are completely unrealistic expectations, Josue De Paula for next year's Chourio, and Tink Hence for next year's Painter. Just remember the Daniel Espino career path before paying up for Hence at this stage of his development.

Stinky Mclinkerson: Who do you think gets to the majors first between Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams?

Williams, but I don't feel confident about either guy having a lengthy run in the MLB rotation this season.

Kid for the Win: What could Everson Pereira look like as a regular in the bigs?

Ceiling comp: Tyler O'Neill. The hit tool will never be a strength, but he provides elite damage on contact and should be good for double-digit steals early in his MLB career.

Corey: What are your thoughts on Spencer Jones and Zac Veen?

Both are overrated albeit top-100 prospects. Jones' data is excellent, but he was also not at an age-appropriate level and I could see him struggling with strikeouts at Double-A. Veen is one of my toughest ranks. Sometimes I think I'm too low on him, but I'm also trying not to have my thoughts swayed by others being too high on him. I think people drastically overrate his chances of being a 20-plus steal guy and I'm not sold on the hit tool — plus he still hasn't started getting to his raw power consistently in games.

BC: Wondering what Tyler Glasnow's injury does to his dynasty value, specifically, would you still rank him ahead of Pablo Lopez, Logan Gilbert or Blake Snell?

It's an oblique strain, so I don't think it should do much at all to his dynasty value. I could see taking Snell or maybe Gilbert over Glasnow if you're in win-now mode, but I'd guess this injury will lead to him actually being undervalued in dynasty in the short term.

Matthew King: Who had the more impressive minor-league career, Adley Rutschman or Miguel Vargas?

Fun question. I'll say Vargas. He had a longer minor-league career, obviously, and is a career .313 hitter in the minors to Adley's .281 AVG and they had an identical .390 OBP. Vargas also improved his defense more than Adley did (since Adley was a great defender when he made his minor-league debut).

Phil Kramer: What do you see as Nathaniel Lowe's upside for the next few years in OBP leagues?

Just hope he repeats last year. I don't think there's a level beyond that.

Rick Bonino: Wilmer Flores is a bit of a prospect list darling these days, but it appears you're not as impressed – can you elaborate?

That's news to me. He seems like a potential No. 4 starter with No. 3 starter upside on a terrible team with a good home park. Just not very exciting for fantasy – much better real-life prospect, so maybe those are the lists you're talking about.