MLB Best Bets Today: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

MLB Best Bets Today: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

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MLB Best Bets Today: Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees

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The Boston Red Sox take on the New York Yankees today in the second game of this rivalry series.  The Red Sox won the series opener yesterday after they came back from being down 7-4 late in the game.  The Red Sox bullpen came in early and gave up a three-run home run to Aaron Judge, but the Red Sox quickly answered with two runs in the bottom of the seventh inning and three more runs in the bottom of the eighth to take the lead and win the game. The Red Sox are now 5-2 against the Yankees this season and have won each of the first two series between these teams.  The Red Sox are sneakily only 3.5 games back from the Yankees in the American League East and the Wild Card standings. The Yankees are 10-23 since June 15th while the Red Sox are one of the best teams in the league in that same timespan (20-12).

Marcus Stroman faces off against Kutter Crawford in the second game of this series. Marcus Stroman has struggled lately going 2-3 with a 4.46 ERA in his last seven starts. He has faced the Red Sox once this season, allowing four runs in five innings with four walks. He has pitched six innings just once in his last eight starts, meaning there will be plenty of bullpen usage for the Yankees. Kutter Crawford has been great lately – 4-3 with a 3.12 ERA in his last seven starts. He has faced the Yankees twice this season and pitched a quality start both times. He allowed three runs in six innings the first time and allowed only four hits in a seven-inning gem on Sunday Night Baseball the second time around. He struggled in his most recent start but that was against the Dodgers on the road – his first start after the All-Star break.

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The Yankees are still dealing with key injuries to players like Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo in the middle of their lineup. Neither are expected to return for this series. The Yankees still have the highest wOBA in the league against righties in the last 30 days, but the Red Sox are even better, ranking first in that time. The Yankees have the better bullpen overall, especially with the Red Sox dealing with injuries to Chris Martin and Justin Slaten. However, their bullpen has been significantly worse over the last month or so than they were to start this season, and we saw that play out last night.

The Yankees are terrible right now and there is no help in sight. Maybe getting Giancarlo Stanton back in the lineup will help them, but they have been struggling in just about every aspect of the game. The Red Sox got off to a brutal 1-5 start to the second half of the season but that was all on a road trip to Los Angeles (Dodgers) and Colorado, two very hard places to play. They usually lock it back in whenever they face the Yankees. We kind of saw that last night with the Red Sox going down 7-4 in the seventh inning but then immediately coming back and taking the lead again in the eighth. Fading the Yankees has been very profitable over the past month and a half, so I see no reason why we should get away from that.

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Red Sox ML -120 vs. Yankees (DK)

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
John Bollman
I am a data scientist and baseball analyst who grew up in Bethesda, Maryland before I moved to South Florida about five years ago. I went to Tulane University in New Orleans for both undergraduate and graduate school, and worked for the Tulane Baseball team as a Quantitative Analyst while working towards my Masters degree in Biostatistics and Data Science. I worked for the Toronto Blue Jays in their Player Development and High Performance departments out of graduate school and I am the founder and owner of my company Baseball with Bollman.
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