This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
How wild were the games yesterday? It felt like we had half the teams in baseball score 10 runs, and it was wild to see some of the stat lines from frontline aces. I actually had Garrett Crochet as a recommendation in my DraftKings article, so I need a bounce back after that dud. With that said, I went 3-1 in last week's PrizePicks article, and the only loss was Reynaldo Lopez failing to reach the sixth inning. He would've done that if he didn't go full UFC mode against Jorge Soler, but that brings my season record to 7-2.
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Ryan Weathers, NYY vs. LAA: More Than 4.5 Strikeouts
I have used strikeout props against the Angels since the start of last year, and it seems to cash every night. Los Angeles had the worst K rate in MLB last season (27 percent) and currently sits 25th with a 25 percent K rate this season.
Now that we have the matchup out of the way, let's discuss Weathers. This lefty has found some extra velocity this season, recording at least seven Ks in two of three starts this year. He also threw eight one-run innings in his most recent start and could be asked to shoulder more here since Will Warren finished just 3.2 innings on Monday. This guy has an 8.6 K/9 rate over the last three years, so he should be able to clear this prop in five to six innings of work.
Mitch Keller, PIT vs. WAS: More Than 17.5 Outs
Keller has always been a solid pitcher, but he's on a different level right now. This veteran has a 1.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through three starts. Most importantly, he's completed at least 18 outs in all of those. One thing we know about Keller is that he'll eat innings and outs, finishing six innings in 21 of 35 starts since the start of last season. His splits have been superb, too, as he sports a 3.58 ERA and 1.25 WHIP at home since 2024.
A home start against Washington looks worrisome when seeing their recent form, but this lineup doesn't scare us. The Nationals were 20th in runs scored, 25th in OBP and 24th in OPS last season. We've also seen Keller finish six innings in two of their last three matchups. This overperforming offense is due for some negative regression, and this series in Pittsburgh will be the start of it after Paul Skenes' game on Monday.
Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. COL: More Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (vs. Michael Lorenzen)
This feels like one of the safest props on this slate. Alvarez has been one of the top-scoring players in fantasy, posting a .500 OBP and 1.255 OPS through 12 games. That's what we saw before an injury-riddled 2025 season, as he provided a .390 OBP and .973 OPS through his first six seasons. Alvarez also has the platoon advantage against Lorenzen and should have plenty of RBI opportunities for the highest-scoring team in the league.
We expect this Stros team to sink Lorenzen because they're projected to score more than five runs in this spot. That's no surprise since the Rockies righty has an 8.36 ERA and 2.14 WHIP through three starts. Yordan has at least 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI in 10 of 12 games this year and should have no issues adding to that in such a perfect matchup.
Bryan Reynolds, PIT vs. WAS: More Than 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (vs. Miles Mikolas)
The Pirates are starting to look like a force, and it's nice to see Reynolds play so well since he's grinded his full career in Pittsburgh. This former All-Star has been the everyday three-hole hitter for the Pirates for years, posting a .375 OBP, .859 OPS and .383 wOBA this season. He's also cleared this prop in three of his last four outings, while sporting better career splits against right-handers.
This really couldn't be a better time to face a righty because Mikolas is one of the worst in the league. Mikolas has a 12.41 ERA and 2.35 WHIP through three starts this season. That's horrifying, given Pittsburgh scored 16 runs on Monday, especially when considering Reynolds' BvP numbers. Reynolds has faced Mikolas in 44 at-bats, registering a .341 AVG and .912 OPS against him.
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