The conference tournaments have given us just a little taste of what we're going to see in June...chaos at its finest. There's been a lot of upsets and heartbreaks. With wrinkles being thrown into the mix, a lot of questions still have to be answered. As for the pre-tournament picks I gave you guys, we're still in decent shape with what's available.
Let's see if we can bag a winner.
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Kansas Jayhawks (+130) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers (-166) | Total: 13 (at DraftKings)
The two best teams in the Big 12 all year rightfully play each other for the right to call themselves conference champs. I'm not going to lie. I'm not happy to see Kansas here. Aside from the fact, we had OK State in this spot against WVU with a lot of scratch on the line, that blew the last leg of my parlay when the Pokes melted down.
Anyway, we're riding that +320 ticket on West Virginia for this one, so I'll try and separate Church and State. From a hedge standpoint, you can blindly take Kansas at plus-money to secure a profit. But, in terms of straight betting the winner, I like WVU.
It's unclear at the moment of the exact pitching matchup, but remember the fact that these teams are still needing to keep their guys fresh for the regionals next week. Process of elimination, Kansas already threw Mason Cook and Dom Voegele this week, so there's a good chance we will see Mathis Nayral. And, Nayral is sporting a 4.91 ERA and 67 K:24 BB ratio across 62.1 IP. He faced the Mountaineers a couple weeks ago, giving up seven hits and three runs (one earned) over 4.2 innings in a loss.
The Mountaineers offense is good, not great. Their main M.O. is stealing bags (95 on the year). However, they have potentially the top pick in next year's draft in Gavin Kelly (.381, 13 HR, 1.158 OPS), as well as handful of other weapons. WVU has won 11 of their last 12 contests, including that sweep over Kansas. They've already burned Maxx Yehl, Ian Korn, and Chansen Cole.
Dawson Montesa threw 1.2 IP (23 pitches) in Friday's win over Arizona State, but he may be a candidate for an inning or two. Chances are though, WVU is looking at a bullpen day. With Johnny Wholestaff probably going, it should be a lot of mixing and matching. We're probably going to see some of the guys that threw an inning against ASU make an appearance in this one. Truly handicapping it off pitching is more difficult.
Kansas' offense has really looked good this year so many JUCO players stepping up. The best one has been Tyson LeBlanc, hitting .333 with 21 homers. The Jayhawks have hit 98 homers as a team his year, so there's thump in this lineup.
The only reason I like WVU is how well they've been playing and managing adversity. The pitching matchup on paper may not favor them, but there's a lot of ways they can bring this thing home. But like I said, if you are looking to hedge that pre-tournament ticket, take Kansas at plus money.
