This article is part of our PrizePicks MLB series.
With a heavy dose of day games Thursday, we only have three evening games to enjoy. While that leaves us with limited options on PrizePicks, here are four projections that could still prove to be profitable.
Carlos Correa, MIN vs. MIA: More Than 1.5 Total Bases
Injuries have limited Correa to just 84 games this season, but he has been productive when on the field. His .894 OPS is on pace to be his highest mark since 2019. Since coming off the injured list, he is 10-for-32 (.313) with four doubles across nine games.
Correa has dropped his strikeout rate to 16.8 percent this season while still producing a .201 ISO. He's not sacrificing power just to make contact. His power prowess is noteworthy for this matchup with Valente Bellozo, who has given up 14 home runs over just 63.2 innings with the Marlins. Prior to that, he had allowed 10 home runs across 66 innings in the minors this year, so this is not a new problem for him.
Byron Buxton, MIN vs. MIA: More Than 0.5 Home Runs
Staying with Bellozo's propensity to give up home runs brings us to Buxton. Since coming off the injured list, he is 12-for-29 (.308) with two home runs over 10 games. He also loves hitting at home, posting a .269 ISO there this season. He has produced an ISO of at least .259 at home in five of the last six seasons. This is a Demon projection, meaning the payout is boosted if it hits. Given the matchup, the risk is worth the potential increased award.
Xavier Edwards, MIA at MIN: More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
It looks like the Marlins have found their shortstop of the future in Edwards. He has produced two hits in both of the first two games of this season while recording two RBI and one run scored. He is batting .314, although his wOBA isn't as impressive at .339. The stat that jumps off the page with him is that he has stolen 30 bases over 65 games.
Starting this game for the Twins will be David Festa, who has followed up his 1.36 WHIP at Triple-A this year with a 1.28 WHIP in the majors. He hasn't provided the Twins with much depth, logging fewer than five innings in three of his last six outings. The Twins used six relievers in Wednesday's game, so their bullpen isn't exactly in the best shape. With his speed and contact skills, Edwards has the potential to produce another valuable stat line.
Xander Bogaerts, SD at LAD: More Than 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
It has been a productive series for Bogaerts, who is 3-for-7 with two RBI and one run scored over the first two games. It has been a disappointing season for him overall with his .118 ISO and .298 wOBA. He also has been limited to only 107 games because of injury.
As underwhelming as Bogaerts has been, a matchup against Walker Buehler can solve a lot of problems. Since returning to the Dodgers starting rotation in August, Buehler has a 1.65 WHIP and has given up 24 runs (20 earned) across 33.1 innings. He's not missing many bats anymore, posting a 19.4 percent strikeout rate this season that is more than six percentage points lower than his career mark. The Padres could have a big night at the plate, so more-than is the way to go here with Bogaerts.
