Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, June 18
MLB 2026 betting record: 17-27-1, -11.91 units
Thursday's MLB betting slate is fairly beefy, with nine games scheduled and the majority of them taking place this evening.
I have four predictions for the action, including a pair of picks from the series finale between the Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees.
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Predictions and Best Bets
Gage Jump under 5.5 strikeouts (-104 BetRivers)
Athletics pitchers rank last in MLB in home runs allowed per nine innings and ERA at home. Collectively, they're one of six teams with a strikeout rate below 20% at home. None of that should be surprising. The Athletics play their home games in an offensive paradise. Since opening last year, Sutter Health Park in Sacramento has been the No. 2 offensive environment in baseball, trailing only Coors Field (per Baseball Savant's park factors).
Jump has been solid for the Athletics and had a K rate above 30% in Triple-A, but this is still a fairly big number for a pitcher who's 1-3 against this line through four big league starts ahead of his fifth at an unforgiving park. Additionally, the weather is expected to be great for hitting, both in terms of temperature and wind, adding to the challenges pitchers could face tonight. That makes a long outing difficult to project for Jump, which would ultimately limit his strikeout upside.
The Angels have the highest strikeout rate in MLB, but they've been a little better in that department vs. left-handers.
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Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Predictions and Best Bets
Over 5.5 runs, first five innings (+100 theScore Bet)
White Sox moneyline (+135 DraftKings)
Whether you believe the White Sox are smoke and mirrors, the reality is that they're sitting in first place more than a third of the way through the season with the third-best winning percentage in the American League.
Chicago ranks third in the majors in homers, seventh in runs per game, and the club has manhandled left-handed pitching. Against southpaws, the White Sox are tied for first in homers and third in ISO, leading to the No. 3 offense, per wRC+. They get a lefty tonight in Ryan Weathers, who has been torched repeatedly since a strong start.
Weathers has allowed five-plus runs in four of his last five outings after having done so once through his first eight. Over that five-game stretch, he has a 6.44 ERA (6.16 FIP) despite a seven-scoreless-inning gem mixed in there.
Home runs have been a big problem for him. Weathers surrendered multiple bombs in all of those five-run outings and had another start this season where he allowed four. It has led to the second-highest home run/fly ball rate in baseball ahead of tonight's home outing at Yankee Stadium, where the wind is expected to be blowing out, producing favorable hitting conditions.
Chicago counters with righty Sean Burke, who's been up and down, and enters with similar production to Weathers. Burke can miss bats but he's been wild, walking five in each of his last two outings. New York leads the majors in walk rate, and only four pitchers (minimum 200 innings pitched) have a higher BB% than Burke since the start of last season. I think there's a good chance at least one of these starters gets touched up quite a bit.
While the Yankees have the bullpen advantage and a better-rested group, Chicago was off Monday and avoided its top bullpen arms the last two games as a result of the blowouts. The club will be able to deploy its leverage arms in lefty Bryan Hudson and hard-throwing righties Seranthony Dominguez and Grant Taylor, who have been particularly strong of late.
Chicago also has the luxury of avoiding slugger Aaron Judge, which hasn't mattered this series as the Yankees have won by scores of 12-2 and 10-5. But missing Judge is clearly never a bad thing. Add it all up, and the White Sox look like a strong underdog play to me.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Predictions and Best Bets
Juan Soto 3+ hits/runs/RBIs (+122 DraftKings)
I like the venue, matchup and conditions tonight. Finding good value on a Juan Soto prop is difficult, so I'm turning to an alternative market to back the Mets star against Aaron Nola and the Phillies. Soto's standard 2+ H/R/RBI line is priced around -150/-160.
Tonight's game is at Citizens Bank Park, among the best hitting and home run parks in MLB. Nola has been hit hard this season and sports a 6.21 ERA at home, where the wind is expected to be blowing out considerably to Soto's pull side.
Left-handed hitters are batting .292/.381/.500 off Nola a year after they posted an .862 OPS off him. Soto has a 1.009 OPS against righties, which would rank fourth in baseball if he had enough at-bats to qualify.
Soto walks at an elite rate and hits the ball with authority. His Baseball Savant page is predictably drowning in red. Hitting in the No. 3 spot, I expect plenty from him tonight against the struggling Nola. Soto has cleared this line in four of his last seven games and has the surging Bo Bichette hitting in front of him. Bichette is batting .387/.394/.645 in June and has recorded a multi-hit game in six consecutive contests.
MLB Picks Recap
•Gage Jump under 5.5 strikeouts (-104 BetRivers)
•White Sox/Yankees over 5.5 runs, first 5 innings (+100 theScore Bet)
•White Sox moneyline (+135 BetMGM)
•Juan Soto 3+ hits/runs/RBIs (+122 DraftKings)
