MLB Futures: NL MVP Odds
The 2026 MLB season is here, and we break down the frontrunners for the NL MVP award.
The favorite is Shohei Ohtani, who already owns 4 MVP awards across the two leagues. The next tier only contains Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna Jr., who are generational talents.
NL MVP Odds
| Name | Team | Opening Odds (11/12/25) | Current Odds (3/25/26) | Change |
| Shohei Ohtani | LAD | -110 | -45 | 35 |
| Juan Soto | NYM | 800 | 900 | 100 |
| Ronald Acuna Jr. | ATL | 1200 | 1000 | -200 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | SDP | 1200 | 1600 | 400 |
| Elly De La Cruz | CIN | 1700 | 2500 | 800 |
| Bryce Harper | PHI | 3000 | 2500 | -500 |
| Kyle Schwarber | PHI | NA | 2500 | 2500 |
| Paul Skenes | PIT | 3500 | 2800 | -700 |
| Kyle Tucker | LAD | NA | 3000 | 3000 |
| Ketel Marte | ARI | 2200 | 3000 | 800 |
The Field
| Rank | Player | Tier | Profile Strength |
| 1 | Shohei Ohtani | Tier 1 | 9–10 WAR ceiling, two-way impact, historic narrative |
| 2 | Juan Soto | Tier 2 | Elite OBP, playoff context, 7–8 WAR path |
| 3 | Ronald Acuna Jr. | Tier 2 | 30/30 upside, MVP pedigree, 8+ WAR ceiling |
| 4 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Tier 3 | Power + defense combo, 7–8 WAR upside |
| 5 | Elly De La Cruz | Tier 3 | Explosive ceiling, speed + power, volatility |
| 6 | Bryce Harper | Tier 3 | MVP pedigree, power bat, health variable |
| 7 | Kyle Schwarber | Tier 3 | HR-driven profile, defensive penalty |
| 8 | Paul Skenes | Tier 4 | Pitcher narrative hurdle for MVP |
| 9 | Kyle Tucker | Tier 4 | 6–8 WAR upside, balanced skillset |
| 10 | Ketel Marte | Tier 4 | WAR-efficient profile, balanced production |
NL MVP History
- 2025 Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Dodgers
- 2024 Shohei Ohtani Los Angeles Dodgers
- 2023 Ronald Acuna Jr. Atlanta Braves
- 2022 Paul Goldschmidt St. Louis Cardinals
- 2021 Bryce Harper Philadelphia Phillies
- 2020 Freddie Freeman Atlanta Braves
- 2019 Cody Bellinger Los Angeles Dodgers
- 2018 Christian Yelich Milwaukee Brewers
- 2017 Giancarlo Stanton Miami Marlins
- 2016 Kris Bryant Chicago Cubs
NL MVP Benchmarking
The MVP of the league will typically come from this group of benchmarking.
- 7–10 WAR
- 170+ wRC+
- 40+ HR or elite OBP
- 145+ games played
- Plays premium position OR has historic offensive season
- Team in playoff mix
NL MVP Picks
Kyle Tucker (+3000)
Tucker should be closer to +1500-2000. He will be hitting second for the Dodgers between Ohtani and Mookie Betts. I can see him getting off to a blistering start in his case he odds will be cut in half.
Juan Soto (+900)
Soto will be the focal point of the team in one of the biggest markets. He's a generational talent with elite OBP skills and represents solid value at +750.
Ketel Marte (+3000)
Marte is regarded as the best second baseman in baseball, but in his case the Dbacks would need to be close to the top in the National League for him to get consideration. He is a balanced player and leader, and with Corbin Carroll out he does gain from this much like Soto.
Elly De La Cruz (+2500)
De La Cruz only has a projected WAR in the 4.0 range, but he is a unicorn and if everything breaks right there is a ceiling and narrative path for the MVP.
Jackson Chourio (+4000)
Chourio is still not getting all of the love he should be for a player of his age. His potential of getting 30-30 while being the top hitter on the Brewers should put him in play for at least a possible top-5 finish.
How to Bet Shohei Ohtani
You can go two ways with him. You can just accept the chalk and his track record, but split the unit with other players. Or you can fade him early, hope he either starts slow or has a minor injury and you can jump on +EV.
NL MVP Best Bets
2-Unit Portfolio
- Kyle Tucker (+3000, 0.60 units)
- Ketel Marte (+3000, 0.50 units)
- Elly De La Cruz (+2500, 0.40 units)
- Juan Soto (+900, 0.30 units)
- Jackson Chourio (+4000, 0.20 units)
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