We've got a monstrous 13-game slate to sort through Friday evening, with games going off between 7:05 and 10:15 p.m. EDT. Four arms are priced in five-figures with the top two squaring off against each other, while six more come in at $9,000 or more. With only 10 of 26 being payup options, this feels like a slate to live in the middle tier, take what's available and load up offensively.
That could prove challenging, however, as the slate doesn't profile to have huge scoring. Orioles-A's is our highest total at 9.5, a full run better than any of the other 12 matchups. It's a competitive batch of games, too, with San Diego (-162) the heaviest favorite, a pretty low number to be the leader. Weather doesn't appear to be a heavy factor Friday. Moderate rain chances in Cleveland need to be monitored, and perhaps some slight outbound winds in Los Angeles and San Francisco could assist the bats.
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Pitching
Robbie Ray, SF vs. PIT ($9,000): As noted in the intro, I want to take what the slate gives us. Yes, Ray's strikeouts are sliding for the third straight year, but he gets a Bucs side that's fanning 27.5 percent of the time against lefties, the third-highest rate in the league. His presence forces O'Neil Cruz to hit right-handed, which he can't, and the rest of the Pirates roster has a .685 OPS against him. I'll admit the price is a little rich, but without looking, I like a Ray K prop here which gives us a floor and ceiling if it hits.
Carmen Mlodzinski, PIT at SF ($8,100): Why not stick in San Francisco and consider both sides of this matchup and its low 7.5 run expectancy? Mlodzinski seems due some better results, as his 4.78 ERA comes with a 2.49 FIP and an unsustainable .378 BABIP. The Giants have been horrible all year, sitting with a league-worst .280 wOBA and 76 wRC+ off righties. Mlodzinski is a ground ball guy (45.4 percent) and has allowed just one homer across 34.0 innings. He's striking out a career-best 10.6 per nine. Do we really trust the Giants to string together multiple hits and inflict serious damage?
Robby Snelling, MIA vs. WSH ($7,000): Snelling is set to make his major league debut, so it's anyone's guess how he'll handle that. But there is reason for optimism/a high-ceiling performance. The Nationals are fourth off lefties with a .345 wOBA and 118 wRC+, but they strike out at a 25.5 percent clip. Snelling posted 11.0 K/9 last year in the minors and is up to 13.7 this season. Miami is a slight favorite and the Nationals have a mediocre 4.1 run expectancy.
Top Targets
Bobby Witt ($3,500) can be a nice building block at a very fair price. Kansas City is just one of two teams expected to score five-plus runs. Witt has homered in two of his last four and four of his last 13, hitting .321 in that stretch with 13 runs scored.
The Athletics are on the wrong side of the total in our expected highest-scoring game, but there's still appeal. Teams have loaded up on lefties against Kyle Bradish, so Nick Kurtz ($3,400) and his 30-game on-base streak stand out. But righties are posting a .460 wOBA against him (opposed to .359 from lefties). Shea Langeliers ($3,900) could be overlooked as a result.
Frankly, this has been as challenging of a slate to break down as I've ever encountered, and I don't feel terrific about the pay-up options. Jackson Chourio ($3,700) has come off the IL hot, going 6-for-9 with three doubles, and he's 2-for-4 off Max Fried. Given Fried's price/name recognition, you can expect low roster percentages here.
Bargain Bats
The Orioles have the highest run expectancy at 5.6 against lefty Jacob Lopez, who is allowing a .411 wOBA and .944 OPS to righties. Pete Alonso ($3,200) is hitting .346 with three homers in his last seven. Taylor Ward ($3,200) isn't hitting, but he has seven runs in his last three thanks in part to six walks and brings a .427 wOBA off lefties into Friday.
I'm likely never not playing Juan Soto ($3,100) at this price. Tuesday, he was in Coors Field at $3,700. Chase Field isn't at elevation, but it's not exactly a pitchers' park. He's 3-for-12 off Ryne Nelson but with two homers.
Even if you're on Snelling above, you can consider Brady House ($2,800). He slots into a run-producing place in the order, is hitting .333 over his last five, and has a .413 wOBA and 164 wRC+ off lefties.
Stacks to Consider
Guardians vs. Connor Prielipp (Twins): Jose Ramirez ($3,700), Chase DeLauter ($3,300), Austin Hedges ($2,700)
Prielipp doesn't have targetable splits, largely thanks to only throwing just 14.0 innings. But his 3.86 ERA comes with a slightly higher 4.41 xFIP, and after strong ground ball rates throughout his minor league career, he's at just 28.6 percent since promotion. The Guardians make this tough as it's a left-handed heavy lineup. Turning Ramirez around to the right side, where he has a .423 wOBA, 172 wRC+ and .359 ISO makes him an elite standalone play. Despite the LvL, DeLauter sits at .477/208/.222 and is hitting .522 over his last seven. The third piece is where this gets weird, and we may need to see how the Guardians lineup up. Hedges hits when he plays, sitting at .469/203/.250, but he's not going to factor atop the order. He can be a discount one-off, but we'll likely be able to find a third piece once Cleveland gives us their card.
Cubs at Kumar Rocker (Rangers): Ian Happ ($3,700), Seiya Suzuki ($3,600), Michael Busch ($2,900)
Rocker doesn't have highly targetable splits and he's been better at home, so this is a volatile, GPP, risk/reward option on a challenging slate. When Happ hits, it usually comes in bunches. He has seven hits in his last six, with six of those coming in two games, homering in each. He has a .422 wOBA and 172 wRC+ off righties overall. Suzuki has three homers in his last 11, posting a .902 OPS, and has a .403 wOBA and 159 wRC+ on the season. Busch brings a potential power boost at a cheaper price. He hasn't hit righties well overall, but is hitting .417 over his last seven.
