Thursday slates are always among the most fascinating of the week because we rarely have a full one. That's just what we're looking at here because we have seven games spread throughout different times. It's unique in that no more than two games can start at the same time. That'll make it tough to dissect, but we're going to focus on the night slate of four games since it's the main card on FanDuel.
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Pitching
Eduardo Rodriguez, ARI vs. COL ($9,900)
E-Rod has always flashed moments of brilliance throughout his career, but he's having one of his most consistent seasons. The left-hander has a 2.53 ERA and 1.26 WHIP while allowing four runs or fewer in all nine starts. He's also averaging 41 FanDuel points per game across his last three outings after scoring 25 FD points against the Rockies in his most recent start. That one was in Coors Field, but facing the Rockies on the road is a different animal. They rank last in nearly every offensive statistic on the road over the last five years, with E-Rod averaging 33 FD points per game across their last four matchups. That's why he's a -190 favorite in this game!
Luis Severino, ATH at LAA ($8,200)
We had Aaron Civale as a disappointing recommendation yesterday, but we always love these A's pitchers on the road. They seem to become All-Star talents when they leave Sacramento, with Severino sporting a 3.02 ERA and 1.07 WHIP on the road last season. He's backed that with a 3.56 ERA on the road this year, and it's even more impressive since Severino has a 3.00 ERA and 8.1 K/9 rate across his last five starts. We didn't even discuss the best part: this road matchup with the Angels. Los Angeles had the worst K rate in baseball last season and holds that crown once again this year. That was clear when Severino scored at least 27 FanDuel points in both of their matchups last season.
Top Targets
Corbin Carroll, ARI (vs. Rockies Bullpen) $3,900
Carroll goes on these stretches where he looks like an MVP, and he's currently having one of them right now. The outfielder enters this matchup amid an eight-game hitting streak in which he's a .583 OBP and 1.506 OPS. He's also scored at least 15 FanDuel points in seven of those, while recording two homers and two steals. That's bad news for any Rockies righty, especially since Carroll has compiled a .349 OBP and .889 OPS against right-handers since the start of last year.
Hunter Goodman, COL (vs. Eduardo Rodriguez) $3,200
While we do like E-Rod as one of our pitchers, we have to acknowledge that this is a good matchup for Goodwin. Rodriguez has been susceptible to subpar performances, posting a 5.02 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over the last two seasons. He also gives the platoon advantage to Goodman, who has an .858 OPS against southpaws since the start of last year. Not to mention, Goodman has an .832 OPS across his last 28 outings while hitting second or third for the Rockies every day.
Bargain Bats
Jazz Chisholm, NYY (vs. Spencer Miles) $3,000
It's been a nightmarish season for Chisholm, but there's a reason why he was a top 40 pick in season-long leagues. He had 31 homers and 31 steals in his debut season with the Yankees last year and is still on pace for 20 homers and 35 steals this season. What matters here is that Chisholm faces a rookie righty who hasn't even thrown 40 innings between the majors and minors. Chisholm has a .804 OPS against righties over the last three years while collecting a .565 OBP and 1.302 OPS across his last five fixtures.
George Springer, TOR (vs. Carlos Rodon) $2,700
Springer hasn't given us much reason to trust him, but he's too good to be sitting at $2,700 against a struggling southpaw. Let's start there because Rodon has a 5.63 ERA and 1.63 WHIP across two starts this season. The only success Springer has had this season is against southpaws, amassing a .353 OBP and .869 OPS against them. He's also showing signs of breaking out, scoring at least 12 FD points in three of his last six outings. Vladimir Guerrero ($3,000) has a .667 OBP and 1.608 OPS in 17 at-bats against Rodon, if you want to stack him with Springer.
Stacks to Consider
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (Rockies Bullpen): Carroll ($3,900), Ketel Marte ($3,00), Ildemaro Vargas ($3,600), Geraldo Perdomo ($2,900)
It saddens me to recommend stacks against the Rockies in every article I write, but I know better than anyone since I live in Colorado and watch this team regularly. The sad thing is, everyone else is starting to realize how putrid this pitching staff is, ranked 28th in xwOBA and 29th in wOBA this year.
Carroll is easily the best option on this slate, but don't forget about Marte. This perennial All-Star candidate has scored at least 15 FanDuel points in four straight games. Vargas has quietly been one of the best bats in the NL, producing a .340 AVG and .902 OPS in a career year. Perdomo has struggled, but he still has a .379 OBP and .818 OPS since the start of last season.
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Spencer Miles): Aaron Judge ($4,500), Ben Rice ($4,500), Cody Bellinger ($3,800), Chisholm ($3,000)
We briefly mentioned that we like this Miles matchup for the Yanks, so let's discuss it! Honestly, there's very little information about Miles, with the righty posting a 4.30 ERA and 1.36 WHIP across 14.2 innings throughout his minor league career. None of that was even above A-Ball, with Miles missing tons of time due to back and elbow surgeries. It's quite a testament to be starting in MLB with all of that, but the Yankees are projected to score five runs in this favorable matchup.
Judge is the most expensive player on this slate, but he's earned it. This MVP has a .436 OBP and 1.105 OPS across the last five years. Rice is amid a breakout season, registering a .397 OBP and 1.067 OPS this year. Bellinger is starting to get hot, posting a .405 OBP and .962 OPS across his last 29 fixtures.
