This is my final baseball article of the week, and I'm really proud of the results thus far. It's been my most profitable week from a DFS standpoint, and it feels like all of the averages are finally creeping back to the mean. It's funny how every player eventually gets closer to what's on the back of the baseball card, and it makes MLB more predictable than any sport out there. There's one pitcher who's going to have one of the greatest baseball cards of all time, so let's go ahead and start there!
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Pitching
Paul Skenes, PIT vs. STL ($10,800)
Skenes will likely be recommended on nearly every slate for the remainder of the season. This is simply one of the best pitchers of this generation, generating a 2.01 ERA and 1.93 WHIP throughout his career. He's been even better this season, tallying a 2.48 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. What's really changed is the support around him because a 4-1 record really adds to his value for DFS. We love that in a home start against St. Louis because Skenes has a 1.10 ERA and 0.55 WHIP at home this season, while throwing five scoreless innings in his last matchup with the Cardinals.
Andrew Abbott, CIN vs. COL ($7,900)
Not many DFS players will use Abbott when examining his 6.59 ERA and 1.78 WHIP, but this is a great spot for a bounce-back start. This lefty was a breakout with Cincy last season, sporting a 2.87 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 29 starts. We'll trust that large sample size over this small one because he has the best matchup in baseball. That's a home start against Colorado, with the Rockies ranked near the bottom of every road statistic over the last five seasons. That has Abbott entering this matchup as a -180 favorite, with Abbott scoring at least 37 FanDuel points in three of his four starts against the Rockies.
Top Targets
Bryce Harper, PHI ($3,400) vs. Adrian Houser
The Phillies just fired their manager, so look for Harper to take on a leadership role and get this team out of its slump. He's already shown flashes of that, tallying a .386 OBP and .988 OPS across his last 24 outings. That's not even far off from his career averages, but we love that he matches up with a weak righty. Harper has a .397 career OBP and .939 OPS against right-handers, while facing a pitcher with a 7.36 ERA and 1.79 WHIP.
Adley Rutschman, BAL ($3,400) vs. Lance McCullers
Rutschman had a disastrous 2024-25 season, but he's bounced back this year. The Orioles catcher has compiled a .393 OBP and 1.020 OPS in what's developing into a career year. That's what O's fans expected to see, and we love this matchup with McCullers. The Astros righty has a 6.58 ERA and 1.71 WHIP since the start of last season, while Rutschman has a .474 OBP and 1.209 OPS against righties this year.
Bargain Bats
Juan Soto, NYM ($3,300) vs. Miles Mikolas
It's ironic that we have Harper and Soto in here because both are playing well despite their teams' terrible play. Soto has a .408 OBP and .896 OPS across his last 12 outings after homering on Tuesday. He's also got similar splits to Harper, amassing a .438 career OBP and 1.000 OPS against right-handers. That's bad news for Mikolas because Soto has a .381 AVG and .952 OPS in 21 at-bats against the righty. We'll talk about Mikolas' numbers more in the stacks section!
Konnor Griffin, PIT ($2,800) vs. Hunter Dobbins
We had Griffin in this section a few days ago, and he'll remain in these articles until his salary bumps up. This top prospect is projected to be one of the best players in baseball, amassing a .420 OBP and .950 OPS throughout his minor league career. He did that while recording 21 homers and 68 steals across 127 games, so he has the stuff to be a DFS stud. We're finally seeing glimpses of that at this level, with Griffin generating a .389 AVG and 1.143 OPS across his last five fixtures. He also has the platoon advantage against an inexperienced Dobbins, who's making his season debut.
Stacks to Consider
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies (Michael Lorenzen): Elly De La Cruz ($4,500), Sal Stewart ($4,100), TJ Friedl ($2,600), Matt McLain ($2,900)
It saddens me to do this since I live in Colorado, but we'll stack against Colorado pitching on every slate. This team was last in ERA and WHIP last season, and they're the favorites to do that again this year. It's easy to see why when examining this pitching staff, with Lorenzen posting a 5.97 ERA and 1.85 WHIP. That won't bode well in a hitter's haven like Great American Ballpark, with the Reds projected to score five runs.
We have to start our Cincy stack with De La Cruz because he's a top 5 player in DFS. He's got a .362 OBP and .952 OPS this season while averaging 26 FanDuel points per game across his last six outings. Stewart has been one of the biggest breakouts, sporting a .385 OBP and .987 OPS. Friedl should hit leadoff and has a .920 OPS across his last seven outings. McLain is also getting hot, maintaining a .900 OPS in that same seven-game span.
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals (Mikolas): Soto ($3,300), Bo Bichette ($2,700), Francisco Alvarez ($2,600)
It's hard to believe that the Nationals keep sending Mikolas out there. This 37-year-old journeyman simply doesn't have it anymore, tallying an 8.49 ERA and 1.84 WHIP. Numbers like those were always in play when seeing his lack of strikeout stuff, and it feels like we could be seeing Mikolas' final season as a starter. The Mets have obviously struggled, but they have 10 total runs over the last two games!
There's no question that the Mets have struggled, but Soto and Bichette are finally getting things going. Bo should bat leadoff here and has a .360 OBP and .905 OPS across the last week. Alvarez is a sneaky option at catcher, collecting a .780 OPS since the start of last season.
