I know this is a baseball article, but can we talk about how special sports have been over the last week? We saw epic finals in the NBA and NHL, and the World Cup has just begun. It's amazing that we have all this going on around MLB, but it's about the time of year for baseball to take over. We've been grinding MLB DFS picks all season, and we have another fun card here. I'm actually going to take a contrarian route by recommending two cheap pitchers, so let's go ahead and start there!
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Pitching
Dustin May, STL vs. SD ($7,300)
May was a top pitching prospect for the Dodgers a handful of years ago, and we're finally seeing why. The St. Louis hurler has scored at least 19 DraftKings points in seven of his last 11 starts while posting a 2.89 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in that span. That's the best stretch of this guy's career, and we can't fade him against a team like the Padres. San Diego sits last in runs scored and wOBA, with May scoring 21 DraftKings points in their one matchup about a month ago. We also don't mind that May is a -145 favorite!
Ryne Nelson, ARI vs. LAA ($6,500)
Many DFS players will fade Nelson after his most recent outing, but we like that he'll be at a low roster rate here and an even lower salary. We're talking about a guy who had a 2.89 ERA and 0.99 WHIP across his previous seven starts before that stinker. That's in line with what we saw in the past, with Nelson posting a 3.39 ERA and 1.07 WHIP last year. We expect him to regain that form in a home matchup against LA because the Angels rank 19th in wOBA and dead-last in K rate. Not to mention, Nelson had a 2.71 ERA and 0.97 WHIP at home last year while entering this matchup as a -140 favorite.
Top Targets
Pete Crow-Armstrong, CHC (vs. Michael Lorenzen) $5,300
Crow-Armstrong got off to a nightmarish start this season, but he's played like an MVP over the last month. This defensive stud has a .426 OBP and 1.108 OPS across his last 22 outings. That's a month of raking, and he always rocks right-handers. PCA has a .261 AVG and .815 OPS against righties this year while recording nine homers and 14 steals against them. That's bad news for a bad pitching staff, and we'll dive into that more in the stacks section!
JJ Bleday, CIN (vs. Mets Bullpen) $5,100
We always like to stack teams who have a bullpen game, and that's what the Mets are doing here. Tobias Myers is expected to be the long man, but he's far from scary behind his 4.05 ERA. What we care about is Bleday because he's been one of the best bats in baseball. Bleday is averaging 9.5 DraftKings points per game while amassing a .358 OBP and .913 OPS. His OPS is above 1.000 against righties, and he should be more expensive behind averages like those. With Cincy projected to score five runs, guys like Matt McLain ($3,500) and Nathaniel Lowe ($3,400) make the Reds a worthy cheap stack with Bleday.
Bargain Bats
Lars Nootbaar, STL (vs. Lucas Giolito) $3,700
Nootbaar just returned from the IL two weeks ago, and it feels like the fantasy community is overlooking him. This outfielder had a .364 OBP and .900 OPS before going hitless on Sunday. We've seen that sort of potential in the past, with Nootbaar posting a .348 OBP and .774 OPS between 2021 and 2024. His splits are even better, sporting a .345 OBP and .766 OPS against righties. The sub-$4K price tag, paired with all those variables, makes him impossible to fade against a pitcher like Giolito, and we'll discuss that more in the stacks section!
Austin Slater, TB (vs. Eric Lauer) $2,800
Slater has always been a DFS darling whenever he faces a lefty. He's one of those southpaw killers, collecting a .352 career OBP and .772 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. That alone makes him an amazing value below $3K, but this matchup couldn't be much better. Lauer has a 5.70 ERA and 1.35 WHIP since his first start of the season. Junior Caminero ($5,700) and Yandy Diaz ($5,200) also have the platoon advantage against Lauer if you want to stack Tampa.
Stacks to Consider
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies (Lorenzen): Crow-Armstrong ($5,300), Michael Busch ($4,800), Ian Happ ($4,200)
It's another MLB DFS article, which means more stacking against Colorado. The Rockies have possessed the worst pitching staff since I was born, and they're last in wOBA and xwOBA so far this season. Lorenzen hasn't done anything to help those atrocious averages, accruing a 7.54 ERA and 1.90 WHIP this season. You might be saying that all of that damage is in Coors Field, but Lorenzen has a 14.04 ERA and 2.52 WHIP across his last two road starts.
PCA is an easy option atop this stack, but Busch is one of the best options on this slate. Busch has a .352 OBP and .844 OPS against righties since his call-up, while compiling a .421 OBP and .926 OPS over the last month. Happ also has a .357 OBP and .819 OPS against right-handers over the last three years while scoring at least 14 DraftKings points in three of his last five fixtures. With the Cubs projected to score five runs, you can use anyone in this lineup.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres (Giolito): Jordan Walker ($5,600), Alec Burleson ($4,500), JJ Wetherholt ($4,500), Nootbaar ($3,700)
The Cardinals are a contrarian stack, but this offense is better than people might realize. St. Louis sits sixth in xwOBA, despite having numerous affordable players. That makes them enticing against a guy like Giolito, who has a 6.57 xFIP and 1.74 WHIP.
Walker has completely broken out this season, and he could be headed to his first All-Star appearance behind his 10.2 DK points per game. Burleson has a .330 AVG and 1.010 OPS against righties this year while registering a 1.160 OPS across his last 11 outings. Wetherholt should bat leadoff since he has the platoon advantage against Giolito, generating a .352 OBP and .777 OPS against right-handers this year.
