After yesterday's rain-reduced four game main slate, FanDuel's Saturday main has a more negotiable eight games, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Rain again could cut this slate by a game, as it's looking wet in Cleveland. Wind looks to be a factor against hitters in Minnesota.
Coors Field is on the docket, where we curiously have Jesus Luzardo ($10,100) as the slate's highest-priced pitcher. He's not in consideration for me even if the Rockies can't hit. That doesn't mean you shouldn't consider him. Unsurprisingly, this game has the highest run total at 10 with Philadelphia (-230) being the slate's biggest favorite. The Yankees (-180) follow behind. Three games have a low 7.5 run expectancy (including Cleveland), setting up this slate for some clear pitching and hitting targets.
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Pitching
Clay Holmes, NYM at SF ($9,300): This slate is void of high-upside starters at all tiers. While I'm not in love with the price per point we're likely getting out of Holmes, he's a fair target while he's fresh early in the year. He got to 90 pitches in his opener, fanning five in 5.2 frames. San Francisco's offense is off to a miserable start with a .270 wOBA, 75 wRC+ and 24.3 percent K rate. I trust him more than his opponent, Landen Roupp ($9,200) simply because he faces the lesser offense.
Ryan Weathers, NYY vs. MIA ($8,400): A potential revenge spot for Weathers facing his old team. He'll need to be a touch more efficient here to provide an elite return, however, as he was lifted after 77 pitches in his debut, making it just 4.2 innings. That's a touch concerning, as part of the appeal is the Yankees being big favorites and Weathers' potentially earning a win. The Marlins are actually off to a decent start against lefties, fanning just 18.5 percent while posting an above average 111 wRC+. I'd probably prefer the Cubs' Shota Imanaga ($8,000) in this tier, but the rain risk forces this pivot in the middle-tier of arms.
Steven Matz, TB at MIN ($6,600): Matz is certainly just a guy, but he's a bottom tier option to possibly allow you more than one top Phillie bat. This game comes with a low 7.5 run total, and the wind appears to be blowing in heavily. Matz isn't a heavy fly ball guy, but any little help is welcome for someone in this tier. He fanned just two over five innings in his first outing, so there's next to no upside, and we don't want to chase a win here. It's simply a low-scoring expectancy on both sides, and Matz is far cheaper than his adversary in Mick Abel ($8,000). Texas' Kumar Rocker ($6,300) is your pivot if you're seeking a higher ceiling.
Top Targets
We know the core of our lineups is going to be built around Phillies' bats. Chase Dollander gave up three homers in his opener and had a 9.98 ERA at home last year, allowing a .447 wOBA to lefties and .390 to righties, seemingly opening up the entire lineup. Kyle Schwarber ($4,400) and Bryce Harper ($4,000) are beyond obvious targets. Perhaps less obvious, and perhaps a nice mini-stack can include one of those two with either Adolis Garcia ($3,500) or Justin Crawford ($3,100).
The Angels' Jack Kochanowicz hasn't proven capable of getting big league hitters out. If you're a BvP guy, a slumping Julio Rodriguez ($3,500) is 5-for-7 off him. But it's lefties who have troubled Kochanowicz, allowing a .393 wOBA to them last year and a .526 wOBA in his debut. The Mariners have a plethora of left-handed options from which to choose, with only lineup construction preventing a traditional stack. Cal Raleigh ($3,800) has taken Kochanowicz deep twice in five at bats and is overdue a long ball.
Bargain Bats
Ben Rice ($3,300) is cooking, going 9-for-22 out of the gate with two homers and four doubles, but the price hasn't fully risen accordingly. Marlins' starter Max Meyer has struggled more against righties, however, something the Yankees don't have a lot of. Maybe it's a Jose Caballero ($2,600) day if he draws the start.
If looking down the Mariners lineup for options, Josh Naylor ($2,800) stands out on potential. Cole Young ($2,600) is riding a seven-game hitting streak and offers a cheap option at the keystone.
The top of Arizona's lineup isn't firing on all cylinders, but I'll never not target against Bryce Elder when he's on the docket. Gabriel Moreno ($2,700) should still hit cleanup behind the Diamondbacks' big three. Nolan Arenado ($2,500) looks completely cooked, but he's priced low enough that may not matter.
Stack to Consider
Braves vs. Michael Soroka (Diamondbacks): Matt Olson ($3,500), Drake Baldwin ($3,500), Mike Yastrzemski ($2,700)
Soroka was incredible in his opener, so perhaps he's fully healthy and ready to regain form that once had him looking like an ace in Atlanta's rotation way back in 2019. Or perhaps he's due a regression to the mean. Atlanta, under new skipper Walt Weiss, has been a heavy platoon lineup and will stack left-handed bats atop their lineup. Olson looks locked in, hitting in five straight and seven of eight overall, homering in consecutive games while having a third one robbed last night, adding four doubles. Baldwin, too, just piles up hits, nine in eight games including three homers. Yastrzemski gives us a likely five-hole hitter near these too to make it a true stack, and gives us a budget play. He's got six hits in his four starts.
