A moderate seven-game main slate awaits MLB's second full day of the season, with first pitch coming at 7:07 p.m. EDT. Unofficially, I counted six teams that have yet to start their campaign, so there is some unknown with regards to lineup construction, so be sure to do your part and confirm batting orders before setting your final roster.
It's always a pleasure to be back for this grind. That's what baseball DFS is...lots of highs and lots of lows. Best of luck to all and let's be successful together!
Pitching
Framber Valdez, DET at SD ($9,400): This is a really tough slate on the bump for me; I want strikeouts more than innings being this early in the year, but Valdez has never been more than a 9k per nine guy. He had a solid spring and has solid history against the Padres lineup, allowing a .222 BA and .597 OPS with an elevated 25.8 percent K rate. I'm a touch worried that the Padres are seeing a lefty for the second day in the row, but Valdez and Tarik Skubal aren't the same arsenal.
Sandy Alcantara, MIA vs. COL ($8,900): This seems a touch like low-hanging fruit, but Alcantara is also priced up a bit more for my liking given last season's returns. He gave up some runs in the spring, but also had a nice 16:2 K:BB rate over 12.2 frames. It's strictly a matchup and favorable ballpark play. Colorado had a league-low 74 wRC+ and 26.4 percent K rate off righties last year.
Mike Burrows, HOU vs. LAA ($7,500): Burrows had 97 Ks in 96.0 innings last season and makes his Astros debut against an Angels' team that fanned at a robust 27.0 percent off righties last year. I'm not expecting him to qualify for a quality start, but after the Astros were shut out Thursday, there's expectation they come out swinging, jump on a lead and Burrows can get a rare win that escaped him last year (two in 19 starts).
Top Targets
This section is likely to be littered with, "Which Dodger do I play today" throughout the season. They look stackable on the surface against Ryne Nelson, but across 101 plate appearances, their lineup is hitting .220 with a .635 OPS. Give me one of Shohei Ohtani ($4,500) or Kyle Tucker ($4,100) to build around and look elsewhere.
The elevated run total in Toronto seems to suggest the Blue Jays are a stack consideration, but Luis Severino has given up just a .205 average and .628 OPS to this lineup across 93 plate appearances. Similar to the Dodgers, give me one of Vladimir Guerrero ($3,800) or George Springer ($3,900) as our second building block.
Bargain Bats
Mike Trout ($3,200) homered and walked three times Thursday. Whenever healthy and at this price, he must be considered.
Kevin McGonigle ($2,100) is one of a plethora of underpriced options as FanDuel catches up with new players' roles. He's unlikely to duplicate the four-hit debut from yesterday, but at this price, do we really care? Jordan Lawlar ($2,300) and Owen Caissie ($2,300) also fit this bill. They come with less upside, but surely less roster percentages and allow you to really pay up for pitching or more sure fire bats elsewhere.
Probably a lazy take, and I personally think he's cooked, but Ozzie Albies ($2,900) gets to open the season against a lefty, which always puts him in the mix. I personally prefer Austin Riley ($3,200) off his hot spring.
Stacks to Consider
Astros vs. Yusei Kikuchi (Angels): Yordan Alvarez ($3,700), Isaac Paredes ($3,100), Carlos Correa ($2,800)
As noted above, Houston shut out and had only three hits Thursday, Either their aging lineup is in full decline; something we should monitor throughout the first two weeks, or they bounce back in a big way. But if you've read this column over the years, you'll know I don't believe in anything Kikuchi is offering. Correa looks like a terrific value on BvP alone, going 14-for-28 off of the Angels starter. Alvarez is 10-for-28 with three homers, and Parades is 6-for-18 with two long balls. They hit 2-3-4 yesterday and likely will again, and it allows us exposure to Jose Altuve ($3,300) without rostering him, hopefully benefiting from whatever he may produce with higher rostership projections. Altuve is just 5-for-28 off Kikuchi.
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