This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
This is my final piece of the regular season! It's a sad reality because it feels like the season has flown by. The good news is that we still have games that matter, with a handful of teams vying for the final few playoff spots. That's all we can ask for as baseball fans in the final week, and it should be exciting to see how things play out. With that in mind, let's dive into this tiny three-game Thursday slate!
Pitching
David Festa, MIN vs. MIA ($8,100)
There's only one bad offense on this shortened slate, so we have to exploit them. That's the Marlins, who rank 29th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA and xwOBA. Those numbers have gotten even worse since they traded away Jazz Chisholm and Bryan De La Cruz, and they should struggle against a team fighting for its playoff life. Festa has been a sneaky-good pitcher for the Twins recently, allowing two runs or fewer in nine of his last 11 starts. He also has a 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 11.5 K/9 rate in that span, entering this must-win matchup as a -250 favorite! A limited pitch count is a slight concern, but the Twins need him to throw at least five innings after getting just three outs from their starter yesterday.
Top Targets
Shohei Ohtani, LAD (vs. Joe Musgrove) $5,200
It's safe to say that Ohtani is the best player in fantasy right now, leading the league with 16.8 FanDuel points per game. To put that in perspective, Walker Buehler is averaging 19 FD points per game and is $8,000! We're talking about a guy with 53 homers and 56 steals, posting a .407 OBP and 1.127 OPS against right-handers! He also has 36 homers and 41 steals across his last 86 games, totaling a 1.084 OPS in that span. Musgrove has been magnificent recently, but he allowed nine baserunners and five runs across 2.2 innings in his one matchup with LA!
Manny Machado, SD (vs. Walker Buehler) $3,600
Machado got off to a slow start this season, but something clicked in the second half. The former All-Star has a .298 AVG, .553 SLG and .894 OPS across his last 91 games. The last few weeks have been even better, generating a 1.027 OPS across his last 15 outings. Having Fernando Tatis back has given him that lineup protection he needs, and we love that Manny has a .952 OPS against the Dodgers this season as well. The Buehler matchup might be the best part of this, and we'll dive into it later!
Bargain Bats
Trevor Larnach, MIN (vs. Valente Bellozo) $3,000
Larnach and Matt Wallner have been platoon players for the Twins all season, but with Wallner on the IL, we'll go with Larnach here. The lefty masher always bats cleanup whenever the Twins tussle with a righty, tallying a .338 OBP and .779 OPS against them this year. We love that when looking at his recent form, amassing a .422 OBP and .791 OPS across his last 15 games! Finding a .400 OBP guy at just $3K is brilliant, and we'll talk about the matchup with Bellozo in the stacks section!
Xavier Edwards, MIA (vs. Festa) $3,000
Edwards has been one of the most underrated rookies in the league, but nobody talks about him because he's in Miami. The speedster has been their everyday leadoff hitter, accruing a .382 OBP and .766 OPS in a remarkable rookie season. He's paired that with 30 steals across 65 games, ranked fourth at the shortstop position with 10.7 FD points per game! He's also been much better against righties, totaling a .785 OPS against them. We said we like Festa as a pitcher, but we can't overlook a guy like Edwards against him since there are only six teams to pick from!
Stacks to Consider
Minnesota Twins vs. Miami Marlins (Bellozo): Byron Buxton ($3,300), Larnach ($3,000), Edouard Julien ($2,700)
The Twinkies have been freefalling down the standings the last month, but this is their last chance at a free win. They play the Baltimore Orioles this weekend and they need to take care of business in this final matchup with Miami. Facing a guy like Bellozo is a good way to accomplish that, with the righty registering a 5.74 FIP and 5.43 xFIP. That makes his 3.82 ERA one of the flukiest in baseball, and this is a great opportunity for the Twins to tank that regression.
Stacking Minnesota can be challenging because you never really know who will go off. We will use Buxton as the top option of the bunch, posting a .853 OPS in one of the best years of his career. He also has a .384 OBP and 1.040 OPS across his last 52 games! We already discussed Larnach as the cleanup hitter, but Julien is projected to lead off. The second baseman has a .359 OBP and .782 OPS against righties throughout his career.
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Buehler): Tatis ($3,800), Machado ($3,600), Jackson Merrill ($3,300)
This game decides this critical series and is the final opportunity for San Diego to close the gap on LA. Bobby Miller would be the best possible matchup but facing a broken Buehler will be just fine. The former ace hasn't been right since returning from Tommy John surgery, getting blasted to the tune of a 5.63 ERA and 1.58 WHIP this season. He's been even worse recently, registering a 6.35 ERA and 1.72 WHIP since June 1. That's scary with how San Diego has been swinging the bat, ranked Top 3 in runs scored and OPS over the last two months! In their last matchup, Buehler allowed seven baserunners, three runs and two dingers across 3.1 ugly innings.
Don't look now, but Tatis is returning to the All-Star we know and love. An IL stint got him fully healthy, with Tatis tallying a 1.072 OPS across his last 12 outings! He's also homered in three of his last nine games against LA, flirting with a 1.200 OPS in that span! Manny is an easy pairing with Tatis, but Merrill is right there with these guys. The NL Rookie of the Year frontrunner has a .310 AVG and .889 OPS against right-handers while accumulating a .938 OPS across his last 89 outings.
