This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
Dissecting these Thursday slates can be challenging because of the limited options, but the pitching on this slate stood out like a sore thumb. There are three guys who have all been brilliant this season and all of them have amazing home matchups against some of the worst teams in baseball. The bats aren't quite as easy to figure out, but let's get started by talking about those arms!
Pitching
Luis Castillo, SEA vs. CWS ($9,900)
We would use any pitcher against the White Sox right now. Chicago is a historically bad offense, ranked last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA and xwOBA. Castillo is not just any pitcher, though, because he's been an ace since joining Seattle. The righty has a 3.22 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over the last three years while generating a 2.93 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 rate at Safeco in that span. That's why the ChiSox are only projected to score three runs, with Castillo sitting as a -190 favorite. That was clear when Castillo collected 55 FanDuel points in his last matchup with Chicago!
Joe Ryan, MIN vs. OAK ($10,800)
Ryan was one of the best pitchers in the AL in the first half of last season, and he's recaptured that form. The Minnesota hurler has a 3.30 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 rate. He's also scored at least 43 FanDuel points in five starts this season, posting much better splits at home throughout his career. A home matchup with the A's could add to those 43-point games, with Oakland ranked 28th in runs scored and 29th in K rate. That's why Ryan enters this matchup as a -250 favorite!
Luis Severino, NYM vs. MIA ($9,500)
Severino used to be one of the best pitchers in baseball before a nightmarish 2023 season, providing a 3.39 ERA and 1.12 WHIP through his first eight years. That's on par with what we've seen this season, with Severino sporting a 3.25 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. The right-hander has also established one of the highest floors, scoring at least 21 FD points in 11 of 12 starts. He could double that total against the Marlins, with Miami ranked 29th in runs scored, OBP and wOBA. We didn't even mention that he comes into this matchup as a -200 favorite.
Top Targets
Marcell Ozuna, ATL (vs. Cole Irvin) $4,100
Ozuna is having a brilliant season in Atlanta, and it feels like no one is talking about it. The slugger has 18 homers and 55 RBI while posting a .390 OBP and .993 OPS. That looks even better since he has a multi-hit game in four of his last five fixtures, destroying lefties all year. In fact, Ozuna has a .379 OBP and .982 OPS against them since the start of last season. Irvin is having a quality season for the O's, but he has a 4.23 career ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
Royce Lewis, MIN (vs. Luis Medina) $3,800
Lewis might have superstar upside, but injuries have kept him from reaching that status. He's played like it in a limited time, registering a .364 OBP, .574 SLG and .938 OPS throughout his career. He's actually homered in four of the eight games he's played this season and shouldn't be faded against one of the worst pitching staffs in baseball. We'll dive into that later on!
Bargain Bats
Corbin Carroll, ARI (vs. Griffin Canning) $3,100
Carroll has been one of the biggest busts in fantasy this year, but the 2023 MVP candidate is starting to turn things around. The speedster has a .429 OBP and .866 OPS across his last 13 outings. That's on par with what we saw last season, and Carroll has also compiled a .355 OBP and .849 OPS against righties over the last three years. Canning is a righty he can clobber, with the L.A. pitcher posting a 4.72 ERA and 1.33 WHIP since 2021.
Mark Canha, DET (vs. Patrick Corbin) $2,800
Canha has made a career of clobbering southpaws, and he should continue that against Corbin. The Motor City Kitties always hit Canha third or fourth whenever they face a lefty, with Canha collecting a .382 OBP and .848 OPS against them this season. That's not too far off of his career averages, and we adore that Canha has a .480 OBP and 1.89 OPS in 25 at-bats against Corbin. We'll talk about how pitiful Corbin has been in the next section!
Stacks to Consider
Detroit Tigers vs. Washington Nationals (Corbin): Wenceel Perez ($2,900), Canha ($2,800), Matt Vierling ($2,700), Andy Ibanez ($2,300)
Since we foreshadowed Corbin's ugly numbers, let's start there. The lefty has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball since 2020, totaling a 5.68 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in that span. That's 641 innings of putrid pitching, and he's been even worse this year behind his 6.15 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. Detroit is not a team we would want to stack, but we would use anyone against Corbin. That's scary since all of these guys are below $3K, so let's get into it!
Let's kick off our Tigers stack with Perez, providing a .357 OBP and .819 OPS against lefties this year. We already discussed Canha's superb splits and BvP numbers but Vierling has been Detroit's best bat as their leadoff hitter. He's got a .932 OPS across his last 13 fixtures while posting better career splits against southpaws. Ibanez is one of the value plays of the day, generating a .321 AVG and .834 OPS against lefties this season.
Minnesota Twins vs. Oakland A's (Medina): Lewis ($3,800), Max Kepler ($2,900), Trevor Larnach ($2,900)
The Twins have been one of the most inconsistent teams in baseball, but their offense is scorching right now. They have 39 runs across their last four outings, and they shouldn't have any issues duplicating that against an A's team that ranks 23rd in ERA and WHIP. Medina has been adding to those awful averages, accruing a 5.40 career ERA and 1.50 WHIP across 120 innings.
Lewis is one of the best high-priced options on this slate, but you can pair him with some of these outfielders below $3,000. Kepler is our favorite cheap play of this Twins stack, tallying a .367 OBP and .867 OPS against right-handers this year. That always has him batting fourth or fifth, but we love Larnach as their leadoff hitter. He's got a .764 OPS against righties since the start of last season.
