A busy 12-game slate is on tap Tuesday evening at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Cam Schlittler at $11,700 leads four arms priced in five figures, and certainly looks like the preferred pay-up in a clash with Detroit if you can afford him. Five more arms are priced at $9,000 or greater, potentially giving us some ceiling at a reduced cost.
Despite some of these top arms, it's about as high of a scoring slate as I've seen this season. We have massive 11.5 run totals in Cubs-Padres and Marlins-Rockies, 11.0 with Dodgers-A's, and five more games coming in at 9.0 or 9.5. The Mariners (-184) and Brewers (-172) represent the slate's biggest favorites. Wind looks like a major factor as of early Tuesday, with double-digit outbound winds expected in Chicago, Kansas City, Boston and Denver.
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Pitching
Bryan Woo, SEA vs. LAA ($9,700): Woo feasts at home, bringing a 2.00 ERA into Tuesday as opposed to 6.38 on the road. He hasn't given up a run over his last four home starts, fanning 35 in 28.0 innings. Outside of Jo Adell (5-for-11, three homers), the Angels have struggled against him, and even including Adell their roster is hitting .240 with a .660 OPS in 77 plate appearances, fanning 24.7 percent of the time. The M's are heavy favorites, and the Halos have a 2.8 run expectancy.
Griffin Jax, TB at KC ($8,400): The price is a little high for my liking as Jax hasn't worked more than five innings all season, taking a quality start out of play. He's also allowed just two runs over his last 20.0 innings though, striking out 21. Kansas City has just a .151 ISO and 94 wRC+ off righties, and while wind is a concern, Jax keeps balls on the ground at a decent 45.6 percent clip. There's minimal ceiling, but perhaps a decent enough floor to allow for offensive spending.
Mike Burrows, HOU vs. MIN ($7,200): With so many high-scoring games expected, it seems you're going to have to pay for an arm that's not in one of those spots for stability. Perhaps Burrows can be the exception, especially if Byron Buxton (hip) is out of the lineup. That's honestly the appeal; a depleted Twins lineup. Burrows has ugly home splits and the Twins have positive numbers against righties, yet Minnesota only has a 4.5 run expectancy. There's also no strikeout upside. That's the state of this slate. Unless you're willing to take a shot on Matthew Liberatore ($6,900) against a slumping Atlanta lineup, paying down isn't likely to be a winning strategy Tuesday.
Top Targets
Where do we start? How about with the ugliness that is Colorado-Miami, as the salaries paired with the names make it less than ideal. Tanner Gordon is allowing a .472 wOBA and 1.122 OPS to lefties, seemingly making Kyle Stowers ($3,700) a preferred option. On the other side, Eury Perez is surrendering a .478 wOBA and 1.137 OPS to righties on the road. Hunter Goodman ($4,100) has five homers in his last six.
Matt Olson ($3,600) will be completely overlooked given the more obvious games to target. Despite Atlanta's struggles, he's hitting .350 in his last five and is long overdue a homer, with his last one coming June 12. Liberatore is allowing a .437 wOBA to lefties on the road.
The same can be said for Junior Caminero ($3,600) who is on a ridiculous power binge (seven homers, 15 RBI in his last six). Noah Cameron has a 39.8 percent flyball rate against 35.4 percent on the ground. Confirm outbound winds and Caminero can continue this surge.
Bargain Bats
No fault at all in fading Burrows above given the overall bad body of work. If Buxton sits, the rest of the Twins lineup are all viable. Trevor Larnach ($2,800) has been a column mainstay of late, hitting .432 with 11 RBI in his last 10. Royce Lewis ($2,800) has hit safely in 10 of his last 11.
Manny Machado ($3,000) is 8-for-16 with four doubles off Matthew Boyd. If the wind is blowing out, a mini-stack with Fernando Tatis ($3,200) is in play.
Kyle Tucker ($3,200) and Mookie Betts ($3,200) could similarly be paired together. Tucker is hitting .375 over his last four, and Betts .370 with three homers in his last six.
Stacks to Consider
Cubs vs. JP Sears (Padres): Pete Crow-Armstrong ($3,900), Seiya Suzuki ($3,200), Alex Bregman ($2,800)
Sears wasn't great at Triple-A, and his start last week came against a slumping Atlanta squad, so I'll take it with a grain of salt. Pair that with the winds, and two of these three being affordable, and I like stacking Chicago rather than a one-off play. Bregman would be that one-off if that's of interest, as he's 7-for-20 with three homers off Sears. Suzuki has a .378 wOBA, 143 wRC+ and okay .194 ISO off lefties, while Crow-Armstrong sits at .370/137/.157. We're banking on one of these three going deep, with one or both of the others on base.
Red Sox vs. Cade Cavalli (Nationals): Willson Contreras ($3,700), Wilyer Abreu ($3,200), Masataka Yoshida ($2,300)
We're going to need to confirm the Red Sox lineup before penciling this in, but I think this is going to be an overlooked game with so many others expecting plenty of offense. Boston has a 5.2 run expectancy, and we've got some favorable winds working against Cavalli, even if he's allowing flyballs only a third of the time. Contreras is a fine singular option, hitting .292 with two homer and eight RBI in his last seven. I'm forcing the issue a bit with the other two, as we want to target lefties against Cavalli, who has surrendered a .379 wOBA to lefties on the road. Yoshida is super cheap and potentially hits leadoff, while Abreu gives a third top-of-the-order option.
