After a busy Wednesday card, we're back to a shorter Thursday slate. We have just 10 games in total, and all of them are at different times. The main slate is composed of the seven games during the day, so that's what we're going to discuss. With that in mind, let's start with one of the best pitchers in baseball.
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Pitching
Max Fried, NYY vs. LAA ($10,800)
I wasn't so sure Fried was worth all the money the Yankees gave him two years ago, but I was wrong. This lefty has developed into one of the best arms in baseball, tallying a 2.74 ERA and 1.06 WHIP since that signing. He's looked even better this year, amassing a 1.93 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Fried also finished with a 2.37 ERA and 1.08 WHIP at home last year, which puts him in a sensational spot against LA. The Angels are 27th in xwOBA while posting the worst K rate in baseball since last year. Not to mention, Fried is a -280 favorite in this fantastic matchup.
Foster Griffin, WAS at PIT ($8,000)
Griffin has been a journeyman throughout his career, but he found something while pitching in Japan last season. That had this lefty competing for a rotation spot during spring training, and he's shown why so far this season. He's faced daunting lineups like the Dodgers, Brewers and Phillies, but he's allowed two runs or fewer in all of those. Griffin also has a 1.76 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while scoring over 25 FanDuel points in all of those. That makes him an easy option against Pittsburgh, which was last in runs scored and xwOBA last season.
Top Targets
Aaron Judge, NYY (vs. Walbert Urena) $4,100
Judge goes on these stretches where he looks like prime Barry Bonds, and he's not being priced like it. There are somehow three players priced above Judge, and we only have seven games on this slate. That's a crime since Judge has four homers over his last three fixtures while posting a 1.478 OPS in that span. That absurd OPS is not even far off from his averages over recent years, posting a .436 OBP and 1.110 OPS since 2022. That's bad news for Urena, who's making his first career start after compiling a 4.64 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in the minors. A Yankees stack is expensive, but they're the highest-projected offense on this slate. Guys like Ben Rice ($4,300), Cody Bellinger ($3,100), Trent Grisham ($2,900) and Jazz Chisholm ($2,800) are all viable options next to this MVP.
William Contreras (vs. Patrick Corbin) $3,600
It's hard to believe Corbin is still trotting out there as a starter in MLB, but we're going to continue to stack against him. We'll talk about that more below, but Contreras is our favorite option against him. This has been one of the best catchers over recent years, registering a .358 career OBP and .807 OPS. He's backed that with a .406 OBP and .881 OPS this season while sporting even better splits against southpaws. Contreras has a .381 OBP against lefties since 2023 and comes into this matchup scoring at least 9.2 FanDuel points in 10 of 15 games this season.
Bargain Bats
Vinnie Pasquantino, KC (vs. Keider Montero) $2,600
Vinnie P has gotten off to a terrible start this season, but seeing him at $2,600 is wild. This guy was nearly $1,000 more last year, providing a .798 OPS in a career year. Most of that damage was against right-handers, with Pasquantino posting a .281 AVG and .846 OPS against them. That's the production you expect to see from a stud like this, and we're not worried about him facing a pitcher with a 4.57 career ERA and 1.36 WHIP coming into the year. KC is a cheap stack, with Salvador Perez ($2,600) and Jac Caglianone ($2,600) looking like great pairings with Pasquantino.
Wyatt Langford, TEX (vs. Jacob Lopez) $2,600
This is another case of a struggling stud seeing his salary drop way too far. Many smart baseball people actually project Langford to be a perennial All-Star, and we saw glimpses of that last season. Langford closed last year with a .401 OBP and .877 OPS across his final 50 games. He also showcased the ability to be a 20-20 player, so a turnaround should be right around the corner. We also love that Langford had a .390 OBP against left-handers last year and faces one here who has a 7.43 ERA and 2.18 WHIP. Jake Burger ($3,000) has homered three times over the last three games and also has the platoon advantage against Lopez.
Stacks to Consider
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Corbin): Brice Turang ($4,200), Gary Sanchez ($3,700), Contreras ($3,600), Luis Rengifo ($2,400)
It would've been easy to recommend the Yankees as our top stack, but let's avoid those high roster rates and use the Brewers. This is the second-highest projected lineup on this slate, and it's easy to see why. Milwaukee was top 10 in every offensive metric last season, and they're right there again this year. That's concerning for a gas can like Corbin, who's collected a 5.43 ERA and 1.51 WHIP across 904 innings since 2020. That's what we call consistency, but it's not the kind you're looking for.
We have to kickstart our Milwaukee stack with Turang. This speedster has the potential to be a 20-40 player and is leading all position players with 17.4 FanDuel points per game. Sanchez has been a sneaky option as the cleanup hitter, totaling a .395 OBP and 1.128 OPS in a bounce-back campaign. Rengifo is projected to be in the heart of this lineup, and he had a .397 OBP and .897 OPS in his last full season against southpaws.
