This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Wednesday marks the end of May, so let's end the month on a high note. There are six MLB games starting at 7:07 p.m. ET or later. To try and take you into June with some DFS success, here are my lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Aaron Nola, PHI at NYM ($9,100): Nola is one of a few usually-reliable aces struggling, but he has a career 3.28 FIP, and he's been with the Phillies since 2013, so his track record with this team is clear. The problem is that he's striking out the fewest batters of his career, and his 7.86 K/9 rating should improve, perhaps considerably. The Mets have been mediocre offensively, with basically only Pete Alonso delivering as hoped for.
Alek Manoah, TOR vs. MIL ($6,900): Yes, Manoah has had a bad season, but he can't keep being this bad. He came into the year with a career 2.60 ERA. Manoah's groundball percentage is actually up. The problem is that his walks have soared, his BABIP is .312, and a guy who has never had an issue allowing home runs has allowed 1.51 per nine innings. Eventually, the burly Blue Jay should turn things around. The Brewers are in the bottom six in runs scored, so maybe this is the matchup he needs.
Top Targets
Kyle Tucker ($5,300) has racked up seven homers and seven stolen bases after having 30 of the former and 25 of the latter last year. His power is down, mostly against righties, but since 2021 he has an .867 OPS against right handers. Louis Varland has a career 4.86 FIP, mostly because he has a real issue allowing home runs. He's given up 1.96 homers per nine innings in MLB.
A couple of Toronto's big bats are scuffling, but not Bo Bichette ($5,000). He's slashed .331/.368/.525 this year with 11 home runs and 11 doubles. Julio Teheran earned a second start because he looked good in his Milwaukee debut, but there is a reason why it was only his second MLB start since the 2020 season. He has a career 4.28 FIP, after all.
Bargain Bats
There is no power in the game of J.P. Crawford ($4,000), but he does have a .359 OBP versus righties since 2021. This year, though, he has actually slugged .436 versus righties, which is notable for him. I really wanted a lefty against Clarke Schmidt, and not just because of his career 4.83 road ERA. No, it's the fact that southpaws have hit a whopping .330 in his MLB career.
After an unremarkable, brief run in the majors in 2022, Spencer Steer ($3,800) is showing promise in his rookie campaign. In particular, he has an affinity for facing a lefty, as he has a career .932 OPS in those matchups. James Paxton is healthy enough to be on the mound again, but his production just isn't there. Through three starts with the Red Sox he has a 5.57 FIP.
Stacks to Consider
Phillies at Mets (Carlos Carrasco): Bryce Harper ($5,800), Kyle Schwarber ($4,600), Nick Castellanos ($4,400)
Carrasco wasn't exactly an ace with Cleveland, but since joining the Mets he's been a flop. Over three seasons he has a 4.75 ERA, including a 6.75 ERA through five starts in 2023. The Phillies are certainly familiar with Carrasco by this point, and this stack looks good to me.
Harper isn't playing in the field yet, but he's absolutely hitting. He's still looking to get it going against his fellow lefties, but he's smashing righties and has an 1.062 OPS in those matchups since 2021. The homers are the only thing there for Schwarber so far. He has 13 of them after leading the NL with 46 last year. The southpaw has slugged .560 against righties since 2021, so this matchup will hopefully help. I'm not overlooking right-handed hitters, though. In fact, since joining the Mets, righties have hit .291 against Carrasco. Castellanos has rebounded to the tune of a .295/.344/.462 slash line, and while he's been much better at home this year, last season he was better on the road in his first campaign with the Phillies.
Red Sox vs. Reds (Luke Weaver): Rafael Devers ($6,100), Masataka Yoshida ($5,500), Justin Turner ($3,600)
From St. Louis to Arizona to, now, Cincinnati, Weaver has been a poor starting pitcher. He has a career 4.84 ERA, including a 5.45 ERA in 2023. That includes allowing 2.13 home runs per nine innings with Cincinnati, which brings me to this stack from the Sox.
When I can roster Devers against a righty at home, I do it. Since 2021 he has a .922 OPS versus right handers and an .897 OPS at Fenway Park. Yoshida's first season in MLB is going better than most imagined. He's slashed .313/.389/.486 with six homers and three stolen bases. Turner has a .353 OBP in his first season with Boston, in line with his career .365 number. He has taken reasonably well to Fenway Park as well, as he has an .811 OPS at home in 2023.
