This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
While I love the NFL and MLB equally, it's frustrating to see these DFS sites throw baseball on the back burner. The prize pools get cut by about 75 percent whenever football starts, and it's unfair to us MLB DFSers. In any case, we'll still grind away profits and things should become a bit easier with such small player pools. We don't have many pitchers we love on this short card, but we have two cheap guys in enticing spots.
Pitching
Walker Buehler, LAD vs. CHC ($7,000)
It's been a rough season for Buehler in his return from Tommy John surgery, but we're seeing flashes of a resurgence. The righty has allowed just two runs in back-to-back starts. Even that small glimmer of hope is massive when evaluating a guy like this. We're talking about a former All-Star with a 3.22 ERA and 1.08 WHIP throughout his career. He's also got a 2.72 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 9.8 K/9 rate at home, entering this game as a -180 favorite. We also don't mind that Chicago sits 20th in on-base percentage (OBP).
Joey Cantillo, CLE at CWS ($6,200)
It feels cheap to recommend pitchers against Chicago every day, but this is one of the worst offenses of all time. The White Sox rank last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA and xwOBA. It's not just that because they're nearly 100 runs behind the Miami Marlins in 29th. We'd use any pitcher against them, and we're encouraged by some of Cantillo's minor-league averages. He had a 3.29 ERA at Triple-A while recording 51 strikeouts across 38.1 innings. You might be worried to see that he threw just 1.2 innings in his last appearance at this level, but he threw five innings and 85 pitches in his most recent outing at Triple-A last weekend. The oddsmakers agree with our assessment, making Cantillo a -230 favorite.
Top Targets
Shohei Ohtani, LAD (vs. Kyle Hendricks) $7,000
Ohtani facing a guy like Hendricks isn't ever fair. The veteran pitcher has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball, providing a 6.60 ERA and 1.51 WHIP. That's horrifying since Ohtani is up to 46 homers and 46 steals. He's also leading all position players with 12.1 DraftKings points per game while posting a .400 OBP, .693 slugging rate (SLG) and 1.093 OPS against righties this year. This is one of the few spots we can use him at $7,000 because the pitchers we recommended are cheap enough to fit in a stud like him. Stacking L.A. is expensive, but Freddie Freeman ($5,300) and Max Muncy ($4,800) are good pairings with Shohei.
Royce Lewis, MIN (vs. Reid Detmers) $5,100
We wanted some exposure against Detmers, so let's start there. The lefty has only thrown three quality starts all season, providing a 5.87 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. He also had a 5.54 ERA and 1.40 WHIP at Triple-A this season when he was demoted and currently has an 8.16 ERA and 1.64 WHIP across his last nine starts. That's rough against a stud like Lewis, who's tallied a .281 batting average (AVG), .340 OBP, .538 SLG and .877 OPS throughout his career. Royce also has the platoon advantage against Detmers, posting a .360 career OBP against southpaws. There aren't many great righty bats in this lineup, but Jose Miranda ($4,000) and Ryan Jeffers ($4,400) have the platoon advantage against Detmers.
Bargain Bats
Rob Refsnyder, BOS (vs. Cade Povich) $3,700
Whenever Boston matches up with a lefty, I always pivot to Refsnyder. This guy is strictly a platoon player for the Red Sox, but he always bats in the top half of their lineup in those circumstances. It's easy to see why, with Refsnyder amassing a .403 OBP, .472 SLG and .875 OPS against lefties over the last three years. That's all you can hope for from such a cheap player. We'll dive into Povich's pitiful numbers in the stacks section.
Jesse Winker, NYM (vs. Chris Bassitt) $3,500
It's hard to understand why Winker has been affordable all season. This guy had two rough years when he was injured but has been an All-Star talent outside of that. In the other six years of his career, Winker has a .380 OBP and .866 OPS, posting a .366 OBP and .791 OPS this year. That's why he bats in the heart of the Mets lineup and we love that he has a .400 OBP and 1.030 OPS across his last nine outings. Bassitt is usually a bad matchup, but the righty has a 4.30 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in the worst season of his career. Not to mention, Winker has a .374 OBP and .825 OPS against right-handers this season. Stacking against Bassitt could be profitable, with Francisco Lindor ($5,600) and Mark Vientos ($4,600) looking like the best options.
Stacks to Consider
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles (Cade Povich): Tyler O'Neill ($5,200), Trevor Story ($3,600), Rob Refsnyder ($3,700)
We foreshadowed we want to stack against Povich, so let's dive in. This rookie was remarkable in his most recent outing against the White Sox, but my grandma could throw a quality start against that team. Before that, he had a 6.58 ERA, 1.73 WHIP and 6.4 K/9 rate through his first 11 starts. That's terrifying against a bludgeoning Boston lineup, with the Red Sox sitting in the top 10 in nearly every offensive category since the All-Star break.
O'Neill has to be the first piece of our Sox stack because he's been slaughtering southpaws all season. The slugger has a .430 OBP, .690 SLG and 1.120 OPS against lefties this year and enters this matchup with a .903 OPS across his last 53 outings. Story also has the platoon advantage against Povich as well, providing a .298 AVG, .372 OBP, .599 SLG and .971 OPS against southpaws throughout his career. None of these guys are too expensive with Refsnyder, making them the most exciting stack of the day.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox (Nick Nastrini): Jose Ramirez ($6,200), Josh Naylor ($4,300), Kyle Manzardo ($2,700)
There is mixed news about who's starting here, but Nastrini will likely get the bulk of the pitching work. Nastrini is having a nightmarish rookie campaign, totaling a 7.79 ERA and 1.95 WHIP en route to a 0-7 record. Even if he's not the pitcher of choice, we don't trust anyone since Chicago sits 29th in ERA and WHIP. That won't bode well against the Guardians, ranked 13th in runs scored while scoring at least seven runs in three of their last four matchups with the White Sox.
If we stack the Guardians, Ramirez has to be the first player in our build. This guy is a perennial top-five player in DFS, averaging over 10 DraftKings points per game. Naylor is projected to bat cleanup for Cleveland, producing a .283 AVG, .503 SLG and .845 OPS against righties since 2022. We haven't seen much from Manzardo, but he's a sneaky power source in this stack, considering how cheap he is. The rookie had a .396 OBP and .941 OPS at Triple-A this season and hit two homers against righties just last week.
