After a weekend of some amazing baseball, we're back with another Monday slate. We have eight games in action for this main card, and that's the perfect amount from a DFS standpoint. That's about half the teams in the league, and it helps limit the player pool. It still gives us plenty of players to dissect, though, so let's get started with one of the biggest signings in the offseason.
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Pitching
Dylan Cease, TOR at LAA ($9,800)
It's been a struggle for Toronto through the opening weeks, but their big offseason acquisition has been playing well. That's Cease, who's collected a 1.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 13.9 K/9 rate through four starts this season. That sensational strikeout rate is what's made Cease a stud in the past, and it wouldn't be surprising to see him strike out 10 batters here. We say that because the Angels had the worst K rate in baseball last season, while ranked 24th in that statistic this season. In their one matchup last year, Cease struck out 10 batters across 5.2 two-run innings.
Michael McGreevy, STL at MIA ($6,700)
McGreevy couldn't be more different from Cease because this guy lacks strikeout stuff. The good news is that he limits hard contact and eats up innings, amassing a 2.49 ERA and 0.83 WHIP this season. It's hard to believe we're seeing a $6,700 player with numbers like those, especially since he hasn't allowed more than three runs in any start while averaging 14 DraftKings points per game. Miami has also been one of the worst offenses over recent years, while LoanDepot Park has been one of the most pitcher-friendly environments. When they matched up last season, McGreevy scored 20 DK points!
Top Targets
Bryce Harper, PHI (at Colin Rea) $5,000
There seems to be some weird narrative that Harper is struggling because Philly is struggling, but that's simply not true. This perennial All-Star is having another amazing season, accruing a .419 OBP and 1.105 OPS across his last 15 fixtures. That's the superstar we've become accustomed to, with Harper totaling a .388 OBP and .935 OPS against righties this year. Those are actually below his ridiculous career statistics, and we don't mind that he's facing a pitcher with a 4.39 career ERA and 1.26 WHIP. It's an expensive stack, but Kyle Schwarber ($6,000) is always one of the best bets to homer against a weak right-hander.
Will Smith, LAD (at Jose Quintana) $4,900
There aren't many cheap options when picking Dodgers players in Coors Field, but seeing Smith below $5,000 is quite the steal. This guy has everything in his favor, batting third every day for a team projected to score seven runs. He's earned that spot with some sensational splits, posting a .372 OBP and .849 OPS against southpaws over the last three years. Smith also has a .890 career OPS against the Rockies and a .860 OPS in Coors Field. This catcher has a .386 OBP and .812 OPS so far this season as well, and we'll talk about the matchup with Quintana later on in the stacks section!
Bargain Bats
Josh Naylor, SEA (vs. J.T. Ginn) $3,500
Naylor has been one of the worst hitters in baseball this season, but seeing him at $3,500 in a favorable matchup makes him a fantastic punt play. He was one of the best players in DFS in the closing month with Seattle last season, providing a .432 OBP and 1.079 OPS over his final 19 games. Naylor also had a .368 OBP and .843 OPS against right-handers last year, so it's just a matter of time before he returns to that. Ginn is someone he could get rolling against, with the righty registering a 5.08 ERA and 1.36 WHIP last year. Seattle has been struggling alongside Naylor, but they make for a cheap stack with Cal Raleigh ($4,600), Julio Rodriguez ($4,100) and Luke Raley ($3,000) all looking like solid values.
Michael Harris, ATL (at Jake Irvin) $3,000
Harris has not played well through the opening weeks, but something looked different over the weekend. This former power-speed stud has six hits over the last two games while scoring 24 and 22 DraftKings points in both of those. That superb stretch makes Smith a stupendous value at just $3K, especially since he has an .887 OPS against righties this year. The BvP numbers for Harris are horrifying for Irvin, with Harris amassing a .450 OBP and .950 OPS in 18 at-bats against him. We'll discuss why Irvin is an incredible matchup in the stacks section!
Stacks to Consider
Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies (Quintana): Shohei Ohtani ($6,800), Teoscar Hernandez ($5,600), Andy Pages ($5,400), Smith ($4,900)
If you read a DFS article today, you'll see writers recommending Dodger bats in this spot. It's simply the best lineup in baseball facing the worst pitching staff in the highest-scoring ballpark. That's why LA is projected to score 6-7 runs, and they're one of the few teams that have the capability to score 10-plus runs. Quintana is unlikely to slow them down, with the lefty compiling a 5.63 ERA and 1.88 WHIP.
It's wild to see Ohtani at $6,800, but it's easy to understand. He was the leading scorer in DFS last season and should always flirt with $7K in Coors Field against this putrid pitching staff. As for Hernandez, he has the platoon advantage against Quintana and has homered in four of his last 11 outings. Pages also has the platoon advantage and is one of the league leaders with 10.7 DK points per game.
Atlanta at Washington Nationals (Irvin): Ronald Acuna ($5,400), Drake Baldwin ($4,800), Matt Olson ($4,500), Austin Riley ($3,800)
Atlanta has one of the best lineups in baseball, and they're always a safe option against a pitcher like Irvin. The Nationals starter has a 6.16 ERA and 1.47 WHIP so far this season. He also had a 5.70 ERA and 1.43 WHIP last season while allowing 19 baserunners and eight runs in two starts against ATL.
Acuna was the highest-scoring player in DFS just two years ago, and he's always a safe option as the leadoff hitter for Atlanta. Baldwin has been one of the best catchers, averaging over 10 DraftKings points per game. Olson has killed righties throughout his career as the cleanup hitter for ATL, averaging 10 DK points per game as well. Riley is turning his season around, totaling a .383 OBP and .988 OPS across his last 10 outings.
