MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, June 17
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Key MLB Betting Trends, Insights, and Matchups Analysis
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(Odds, Starting Lineups, Batter v Pitcher, News, Weather, Bullpen Usage)
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FYI - This is ANOTHER awful MLB slate, proceed with caution.
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Best Bets and Predictions
The Pittsburgh Pirates and Athletics conclude their series Wednesday night in West Sacramento, and while the records suggest these teams are evenly matched, the betting market is giving a slight edge to Pittsburgh.
The Pirates enter as -124 favorites on the moneyline, while the Athletics are available around +104. The run line sits at Pirates -1.5 (+145), with the total listed at 8.5 runs.
Our Pirates vs Athletics prediction is backing Pittsburgh on the moneyline behind a favorable starting pitching matchup.
Why the Betting Market Favors Pittsburgh
At first glance, this line may seem surprising.
The Pirates enter Wednesday with a 37-37 record, while the Athletics sit just behind them at 36-37. These teams have performed similarly throughout much of the season, making Pittsburgh's favorite status appear modest on the surface. However, this line is being driven largely by the starting pitching matchup. Pittsburgh hands the ball to Braxton Ashcraft, who has quietly become one of the club's most reliable starters, while the Athletics counter with Aaron Civale, who is making his first start since returning from the injured list.
Team Records, Standings and Recent Performance
The Pirates have hovered around the .500 mark throughout the season and remain in the middle of the National League Wild Card race. Pittsburgh has received strong contributions from its young pitching staff and continues to play competitive baseball despite operating in one of the league's toughest divisions.
The Athletics have been one of the more surprising teams in the American League, entering Wednesday just one game below .500. However, consistency has been an issue, particularly against quality starting pitching. While neither team has separated itself in the standings, Pittsburgh enters this matchup with the stronger recent pitching profile.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Athletics: Aaron Civale
Civale enters Wednesday with a 5-2 record and 4.20 ERA across 55.2 innings this season.
While the veteran has generally kept Oakland competitive when healthy, this will be his first start since landing on the injured list with a shoulder issue. Anytime a pitcher is making his first appearance after an extended absence, questions about workload, command, and effectiveness become legitimate concerns. Civale's modest strikeout rate also limits his margin for error against opposing lineups.
Pirates: Braxton Ashcraft
Ashcraft has quietly put together an impressive season, entering this start with a 5-3 record, 3.30 ERA, and 90 strikeouts in 84.2 innings. The right-hander has been particularly effective away from home, allowing two earned runs or fewer in five of his six road starts this season. He is also coming off another solid outing against Miami and has consistently given Pittsburgh a chance to win every time he takes the mound. The combination of strikeout ability, recent form, and road success gives Ashcraft a meaningful edge in this matchup.
Weather Forecast
Wednesday's forecast in West Sacramento calls for temperatures in the mid-80s with light winds and clear skies. Weather should not be a major factor, creating favorable conditions for both offenses.
Pirates vs Athletics Pick and Best Bet
These teams are separated by just one game in the standings, which makes the betting line almost entirely about the starting pitching matchup.
Ashcraft enters in excellent form, owns a significantly better ERA than Civale, and has been dominant on the road this season. Civale's return from the injured list introduces additional uncertainty, particularly against a Pirates team that has played solid baseball over the past several weeks. At just -124, Pittsburgh doesn't need to dominate to provide value.
For bettors looking for a Pirates vs Athletics pick, backing the Pirates on the moneyline offers the strongest combination of pitching edge and price.
Projected Score: Pirates 5, Athletics 3
Best Bet: Pirates ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -124)
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Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Best Bets and Prediction
The Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies conclude their series at Wrigley Field on Wednesday afternoon, with Chicago looking to continue its push toward a National League Wild Card spot.
The Cubs enter as -190 favorites on the moneyline, while Colorado is available around +160. The run line sits at Cubs -1.5 (+110), and the total is 9.5 runs.
Chicago has drawn steady betting support throughout the day, but laying -190 on the moneyline doesn't offer much value. Instead, bettors can back the Cubs to win by multiple runs while receiving plus money on the run line.
Cubs vs Rockies Prediction
Our Cubs vs Rockies prediction centers around one of the largest experience gaps on Wednesday's slate. The Cubs will hand the ball to Javier Assad, who has recently become one of the most reliable arms in Chicago's rotation. Colorado counters with rookie Sean Sullivan, who enters the game with only three major-league innings under his belt. Combined with Chicago's advantages in lineup depth, bullpen reliability, and overall roster quality, the pitching matchup helps explain why the Cubs are significant favorites.
Team Records, Standings and Recent Performance
Chicago enters Wednesday with a 38-36 record, remaining firmly in the National League Wild Card race despite an inconsistent first half.
The Cubs have played improved baseball recently, winning six of their last nine games while continuing to receive solid production from their lineup. With the National League playoff picture tightening, every game carries increased importance.
Colorado enters at 28-46, last in the National League West. While the Rockies have been more competitive over the past few weeks than they were early in the season, they still own one of the worst road records in baseball and continue to struggle away from Coors Field.The Rockies deserve credit for playing better recently, but Chicago remains the more complete team entering Wednesday's matchup.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Colorado Rockies: Sean Sullivan
Sullivan enters Wednesday's start with just three innings of major-league experience. The rookie has generated excitement within the Rockies organization, but this is a difficult spot. Making a road start at Wrigley Field against a playoff contender is a major challenge for any young pitcher, especially one with such limited big-league experience.
The lack of a meaningful MLB sample creates considerable uncertainty, and Colorado will be asking Sullivan to navigate a Cubs lineup that has been productive at home throughout the season.
Chicago Cubs: Javier Assad
Assad enters the matchup with a 4-1 record, 3.99 ERA, and excellent 1.02 WHIP across 38.1 innings. The right-hander has quietly been one of Chicago's most dependable starters, consistently limiting traffic on the bases and keeping games under control. His 1.02 WHIP highlights his ability to avoid free passes and prevent opponents from generating big innings.
Assad may not be a household name, but he has provided quality innings all season and gives Chicago a clear advantage in this matchup.
Weather Forecast
Wednesday's forecast at Wrigley Field calls for temperatures in the mid-70s with light winds. Conditions should be favorable for offense, and weather is not expected to have a significant impact on the game.
Cubs vs Rockies Pick and Best Bet
The Rockies have shown signs of improvement recently, but this remains a favorable matchup for Chicago. The Cubs own the better record, stronger bullpen, deeper lineup, and significantly more proven starting pitcher. Most importantly, Colorado is asking a rookie with just three major-league innings to make a road start against a team fighting for playoff position.
Rather than laying -190 on the moneyline, the run line provides a much stronger return while still aligning with the most likely outcome. For bettors looking for a Cubs vs Rockies pick, backing Chicago to win by multiple runs offers the best value on the board.
Projected Score: Cubs 7, Rockies 3
Best Bet: Cubs -1.5 runs for 1 unit (The Score +110)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Best Bets and Predictions
The San Francisco Giants and Atlanta Braves continue their series Wednesday night at Truist Park, with Atlanta looking to maintain its hold atop the National League East. The Braves enter as -130 favorites on the moneyline, while the Giants are available around +110. The total is set at 9.5 runs, making this one of the more competitive betting markets on Wednesday's MLB slate.
While Atlanta isn't the overwhelming favorite many bettors might expect, the Braves still enter with advantages in overall team quality, recent performance, and home-field advantage.
Giants vs Braves Prediction
Our Giants vs Braves prediction starts with the overall profile of these two clubs.
Atlanta has been one of the best teams in baseball throughout the season, while San Francisco has struggled to gain momentum in a highly competitive National League West. The Braves continue to excel at home and enter Wednesday with one of the strongest records in Major League Baseball. At just -130, bettors aren't being asked to pay a premium price for one of the league's top teams.
Team Records, Standings and Recent Performance
The Braves enter Wednesday with a 46-25 record, good for first place in the National League East and one of the best marks in baseball. Atlanta has won seven of its last 10 games and continues to play outstanding baseball at Truist Park. The Braves have combined elite offensive production with a pitching staff that has consistently delivered quality innings, helping them establish themselves as legitimate World Series contenders.
San Francisco enters with a 29-43 record, sitting near the bottom of the National League West standings. The Giants have struggled to find consistency throughout the season and continue to battle issues both offensively and on the mound. Recent form heavily favors Atlanta, which has been one of baseball's hottest teams over the past month.
Giants vs Braves Pick and Best Bet
The betting market has adjusted this line lower than many would expect because of the pitching matchup, but Atlanta still enters with significant advantages. The Braves own the better record, stronger offense, superior bullpen, and home-field advantage. They have been one of baseball's most consistent teams all season and continue to play at a high level entering this matchup.
At only -130, bettors are getting a reasonable price on one of the league's elite clubs.
For bettors looking for a Giants vs Braves pick, backing Atlanta on the moneyline offers the best combination of value and win probability.
Projected Score: Braves 6, Giants 4
Best Bet: Braves ML for 1 unit (The Score -130)
Wednesday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Pirates ML for 1 unit (FanDuel -124)
- Cubs -1.5 runs for 1 unit (The Score +110)
- Braves ML for 1 unit (The Score -130)
