Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, May 28
MLB 2026 betting record: 13-20-1, -8.14 units
The MLB slate for Thursday, May 28, features six games, including three this evening.
I have predictions on two of those later contests, including a pair of picks on the AL East series-opening game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles.
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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Predictions and Best Bets
Daulton Varsho over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (-105 BetMGM)
Both teams to score 3+ runs (-115 DraftKings)
Targetting a left-handed bat against Orioles starter Chris Bassitt is the approach I'm taking today. But the Blue Jays have several lefty bats that risk coming out for a defensive replacement, including Jesus Sanchez, Yohendrick Pinango and Nathan Lukes. That complicates how to play them on the prop market, especially well before lineups are out.
But one left-handed bat that doesn't face that situation and happens to be coming on hot is Daulton Varsho. Toronto's center fielder is batting .297 with a .366 on-base percentage in May. While the excellent power we saw from him last year (20 homers in 71 games) hasn't been there, he's dramatically cut down his strikeouts and is making contact at a career-best rate.
Varsho hasn't batted lower than the No. 5 spot in any of his last 13 games and has been either second or third in the lineup in eight straight. Surrounded by George Springer and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and likely some other lefties who will enjoy a platoon advantage, Varsho is in a prime position to contribute across multiple categories tonight.
Bassitt has been clobbered by left-handed hitters this season to the tune of a .322/.404/.513 batting line. He has had pronounced splits for the last several seasons and has generally walked a tightrope during his first season with the Orioles. Bassitt carries a 5.51 ERA into the outing, allowing four-plus runs in five of his eight starts.
While the forecast isn't calling for the most favorable hitting conditions due to semi-strong wind blowing in, Camden Yards is generally a great offensive environment. Toronto should get to Bassitt, and Baltimore has a great opportunity to produce as well.
Patrick Corbin (3.86 ERA) is coming off his best start as a Blue Jay and has been more than serviceable as a stopgap for Toronto's decimated rotation. But after years of being a punching bag, his run prevention remains hard to trust. Corbin doesn't miss bats and has a 14th percentile xERA (5.40) — the regression that is surely coming should start showing up in the box score sooner than later.
Baltimore has struggled vs. lefties but has a top-10 offense at home (per wRC+) and is 12th in MLB in runs per game. The Orioles have scored at least three runs in eight of their last 10 contests.
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Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Predictions and Best Bets
Astros vs. Rangers under 7.5 runs (-122 FanDuel)
Globe Life Field is an extreme pitcher's park and it will host two strong starting pitchers tonight in Spencer Arrighetti (1.32 ERA) and Nathan Eovaldi (3.65 ERA).
Both pitchers got this matchup earlier in the month in Houston and delivered. Eovaldi spun seven scoreless in an 8-0 win, while Arrighetti held Texas to no runs on one hit over 7.1 innings in a 2-0 victory.
While two of three games in this series have gone over this number, this is a tough park for hitters. Globe Life has been the worst offensive environment in baseball this season and the fourth-hardest stadium to leave the yard. With a below-average offense, it should come as no surprise that the Rangers cash unders at the second-highest rate in MLB, per Team Rankings.
The under on this total is 16-8 in Texas' 24 home games.
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Predictions and Best Bets
Braves to win (-135 BetMGM)
This is a small price to pay to back the best team in the majors with their best pitcher on the mound. Atlanta has 14 more wins than Boston, sports the game's No. 3 offense (per wRC+) and sends ace Chris Sale to the bump.
Sale enters with a 1.89 ERA, powered by the second-lowest opponent's batting average against. He has elite strikeout numbers and rarely hurts himself with walks or the long ball. And he does this while providing length, averaging 6.2 innings per start before flipping it over to a Braves bullpen that has the fifth-lowest ERA.
The Red Sox counter with their own lefty (Payton Tolle) and have comparable offensive numbers vs southpaws, but they've been devoid of power. Only one team has clubbed fewer homers and Boston ranks 27th in ISO. That lack of power is likely to reveal itself against Sale, who has led Atlanta to a 7-3 record in his 10 starts.
Tolle has been sharp and the Red Sox have an upper-tier bullpen to match Atlanta's, but they're eight games under .500 and last in the AL in runs scored. If they weren't on the road, the Braves wouldn't be playable on the moneyline. But Fenway Park is easy to look past as Atlanta has an MLB-best 20 road wins and the Red Sox are 9-18 at home.
MLB Picks Recap
- Daulton Varsho over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (-105 BetMGM)
- Jays/Orioles both to score 3+ runs (-115 DraftKings)
- Astros/Rangers under 7.5 runs (-122 FanDuel)
- Braves to win (-135 BetMGM)
