The 2026 MLB All-Star Game festivities are in full swing, and Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia will host the 2026 T-Mobile Home Run Derby on Monday, July 13 at 8 p.m. ET.
Here are the three betting favorites for the event, and I'll share my favorite pick at the end, as I'm targeting value relative to the consensus odds listed by bookmakers.
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2026 MLB Home Run Derby Odds
* All odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted.
Kyle Schwarber 
: +290
Schwarber is seen as the odds-on favorite to win the 2026 Home Run Derby, and for good reason. He'll be at home at Citizens Bank Park, so he's pretty familiar with the venue, and he's also leading the majors in long balls at the All-Star break with 32 homers across 93 games, including 19 home runs at The Vault.
Schwarber led the National League with 56 homers a season ago, and there's a clear case that no one in the field is better equipped to put on a show at this event than one of the game's best sluggers. Schwarber has a .560 slugging percentage and .306 ISO this season, so there's no question that his power is the real deal, even if he's never won the Home Run Derby in his career.
Junior Caminero 
: +400
If you're looking for real value among the favorites, keep close tabs on Caminero, who was runner-up in last season's event. The Rays' third baseman has been on an absolute tear in recent weeks, and he went through an 11-day stretch between June 23 and July 4 during which he launched 11 homers while also bringing elite bat speed to Citizens Bank Park.
Caminero has 28 homers on the season, just four fewer than Schwarber, and his raw power should play perfectly at this event, especially considering his pull-side power. Caminero's .555 slugging percentage and .276 ISO are elite as well, but when you consider he has five homers in 12 games since the beginning of June, and a massive .861 slugging and 1.247 OPS all the way back to June 23, it's hard not to like his chances even ahead of Schwarber's.
Munetaka Murakami 
: +550
How about a Japanese rookie winning the Home Run Derby? Murakami has turned heads with his power this season, and as one of the last true-three-outcome hitters in the game, his swing is made for this kind of event.
Murakami missed time in June due to a hamstring injury, but he's been a must-see slugger when healthy thanks to his 20 homers, .540 slugging percentage and .308 ISO. His hamstrings are a concern, but Murakami has enough power to thrive in these circumstances, and if he had been healthy all season long, he could easily have 25 to 30 homers. It's a matter of whether he can do a better job than the rest of his star-studded field.
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What are the other 2026 MLB Home Run Derby odds?
- Jac Caglianone
: +700 - Jordan Walker
: +700 - Bryce Harper : +950
- Ben Rice
: +1000 - Willson Contreras
: +1100
Out of this group, Harper and Rice represent the best value picks with the biggest upside. Harper plays his home games at Citizens Bank Park, just like Schwarber, and he's won the event before, but he's no longer the player he was in the prime of his career. The veteran first baseman has 20 homers, a .497 slugging percentage and a .237 ISO in 408 plate appearances this season.
As for Rice, he went through a rough patch in June but has bounced back admirably in July, and he enters the break slashing .359/.479/.872 with a 1.351 OPS and six homers across 48 plate appearances this month. Rice already surpassed his previous career-best mark in homers, established last season with 26 in 138 games. He's up to 29 dingers, a .599 slugging percentage and a monster .320 ISO so far in 390 plate appearances in 2026. If you're looking for real value past the field of favorites, Rice is your man.
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MLB Picks Recap
My pick: Junior Caminero, +400 @ FanDuel
Schwarber might be leading the majors in homers and be at home, but it's hard to find a hotter bat than Caminero's right now. He's smashed 15 homers with a .636 slugging percentage since the beginning of June, and he also has the youth advantage required to thrive in this kind of event, given the number of swings each player will have to make. Caminero might not be the odds-on favorite, but he's the top pick on my board. If he wins the Home Run Derby, he'd become the youngest player ever to do so in MLB history.
