MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Player Props for Thursday, May 21

MLB 2026 betting record: 11-19-1, -9.05 units

It's a rare Thursday, where the majority of the MLB slate takes place this evening. 

Four of the seven games today start after 6 p.m. ET, and I have recommendations on two of them, including the series finale between the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees.

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Best MLB Bets Today

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to score (+120 theScore Bet)
• Over 8 runs (-115 Caesars Sportsbook)

Guerrero has disappointed — particularly in the power department — after his legendary postseason performance, but he's still doing a few things really well. He hits for average (and has a 96th percentile expected batting average), walks at a well-above-average clip, and rarely strikes out (95th percentile). The 27-year-old star is a good bet to get on base tonight against Yankees starter LHP Carlos Rodon, who will make his third start of the season.

Rodon has been wild, walking five in his first outing and three in his last start. He surrendered three runs in both of those appearances. Guerrero has reached base in 12 of 17 games this month, scoring 10 times, and has a matchup he's excelled at in the past.

While the sample is small, Guerrero has never struck out in 23 career plate appearances vs. Rodon. That's the stat I like most in their head-to-head history, but the rest isn't bad either. He's walked five times and recorded 11 hits, leading to a staggering .611/.696/1.111 batting line.

Despite only three homers, Guerrero is a power threat who has done damage at Yankee Stadium (.974 career OPS). He can cash this with one swing or put himself in scoring position and set up others to bring him home. At +120, I'll gladly play this at a good hitter's park.

In general, I think we'll see some runs tonight. Toronto's offense has sputtered, but Rodon's swing-and-miss stuff is unlikely to show up as much against a team that strikes out at the lowest rate in MLB. Pair that with his difficulty finding the zone (something he's struggled with throughout his career), and the Jays should apply pressure while Rodon is out there.

As for the Yankees, they are one of five clubs averaging five-plus runs per game and no team has hit better than them at home (MLB-leading 139 wRC+ at Yankee Stadium). They'll see two righties to start (Braydon Fisher as the opener and Spencer Miles for bulk innings) before tapping deeper into Toronto's bullpen.

Fisher and Miles have thrown well, but it's a lot to ask for those two plus a collection of arms to hold down this lineup. And it's worth noting that closer Louis Varland and lefty specialist Mason Fluharty have pitched in consecutive days.

Atlanta Braves  vs. Miami Marlins

• Both teams to score 1+ runs, First Five Innings (-140 DraftKings)

Both starters, Spencer Strider and Sandy Alcantara, have been throwing relatively well and line up in a pitcher's park at Miami, leading to a 7.5 total that's slightly shaded to the Under.

But they've both walked a bit of a tightrope. Alcantara isn't missing many bats and has issued multiple free passes in seven of his 10 starts. Over his last seven, he has allowed more than five hits in five outings. Against the Braves, that combination can get you in trouble. Atlanta leads MLB in batting average (.267) and OPS (.784) vs. righties.

But, Alcantara is sporting a 2.95 ERA at home and holding opponents to a .189 average, significantly better results than what he's compiled on the road (4.50, .320). He can absolutely hold his own vs. this dangerous lineup, but asking any pitcher to keep Atlanta off the board for more than half a game is a stretch.

As for Alcantara's counterpart, the Ks have been there and the velocity is good enough even if it's not peak Strider, but he has issued 10 walks in three starts. He's going to pay for that when he's no longer striking out well more than a third of the batters he faces as he did during his dominant 2022-23 seasons.

The Marlins don't have an imposing lineup, but they don't strike out much and make contact at a top-10 rate. The club should be able to get runners on and put Strider in a position where he's forced to strand multiple times. I'm banking on that stress leading to at least one run.

This play provides cover on both the pitching and offense. It can cash even if both starters throw great — one run through five innings is a strong start. But if they struggle, it's not like I'm betting against offense disappearing tonight.

MLB Picks Recap

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 1+ Run Scored (+120 theScore Bet)
• Jays vs. Yankees: Over 8 runs (-115 Caesars Sportsbook)
• Marlins vs. Braves: Both Teams To Score 1+ runs, First Five Innings (-140 DraftKings)

All Plays - 1 Unit