Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

As the All-Star break approaches, it's already been a banner year for rookies and prospects promoted from the minors. Paul Skenes made the NL All-Star team just one year after being drafted. Ben Rice clubbed three homers on Sunday for the Yankees versus the Red Sox to become the first Bronx Bomber rookie to do that. Wyatt Langford has shaken off the injury bug and finally looks to have hit his stride for the Rangers while James Wood belted his first big-league home run for the Nationals. Jackson Holliday was the most talked about Orioles prospect coming into spring training, yet it has been Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad who have made their own respective splashes for first-place Baltimore in 2024.

Who's got next? Let's take a look at some other phenoms coming through the pipeline in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Emiliano Teodo, P, TEX – One of the biggest risers this season in the minors, Teodo has been lights out at Double-A notching a minuscule 1.71 ERA and 89:34 K:BB in 68.1 innings. He's managed to keep the ball down by either gaining swings and misses or inducing weak contact.  Teodo throws very hard while also featuring a breaking ball with an exceptional spin rate. Control will continue to be his focus, though he's managed to limit the overall damage overall. There's no question Teodo boasts an electric arm while mainly being able harness his command.

Samuel Aldegheri, P, PHI – The 22-year-old southpaw born in Italy has sparkled this season at High-A in the Phillies system with a 3.18 ERA and 95:28 K:BB across 68 innings while batters are hitting .182 against and only allowing three homers over 13 starts. Aldegheri's fastball has solid spin and carry while he can throw as many as four other off-speed pitches, with a slider the most notable offering. As long as the walks stay down and his fastball velocity stays up, he could be playing himself into the team's future plans.

Alex Mooney, SS, CLE – Mooney has swiped 30 bags through 65 games at High-A this year, but his sneaky power has also been a surprise to the Guardians front office as he's slashing .284/.357/.467 with 10 home runs while wreaking havoc on the basepaths. He just turned 22 with only 82 pro games under his belt, so he's still a ways away from making a big-league impact. That being said, Mooney's stock has definitely improved this season and Cleveland's far from set up at second base and shortstop despite plenty of current options.

Shane Smith, P, MIL – Smith has already exceeded expectations in the Brewers organization, yet is still flying under the radar. He signed a free agent contract with Milwaukee after only pitching 10.1 innings in college due to a combination of COVID-19 and injuries. Smith enjoyed a breakout 2023 with a 1.96 ERA and 86:21 K:BB across three levels while finishing the season at Double-A. While he pitched exclusively out of the bullpen last year, he's started the last nine appearances at Double-A and has posted a 2.77 ERA and 44:15 K:BB over 39 innings. Smith has proven to be a low-risk, high-reward signing and his success story could also lead straight to the starting rotation as early as next season, though he could still end up in relief when all is said and done.

CHECK STATUS

Shay Whitcomb, SS, HOU – Whitcomb is certainly benefitting from the hitter-friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League. The UC-San Diego product has always offered tremendous power and speed as he mashed 35 home runs in 133 games between two levels last year alongside 20 steals.  In fact, Whitcomb's slugged at least 19 homers and swiped at least 20 bags in every full season since being drafted. He also appears to have made strides in other areas as he's slashing .309/.393/.560 with 40 walks compared to 74 strikeouts. Has Whitcomb finally solved the puzzle or is this performance - at least in terms of making contact and exhibiting patience at the dish - a mirage? He'll turn 26 in September, though it's becoming increasingly more difficult to ignore his numbers as the season progresses.

Tink Hence, P, STL – The swing-and-miss stuff is evidence for Hence, yet durability remains the chief concern for the 21-year-old righty as he's already started 24 contests going back to last year at Double-A. He's experienced far more success to start 2024 with a 73:17 K:BB and 3.29 ERA from 54.2 innings with batters going .221 against. But Hence has only logged three frames the last month despite remaining on the active roster. He left a start on Jun. 5 due to what was called "cramping", but only lasted one inning Jun. 23 before exiting. Hence has yet to hit 100 innings in any individual season as a professional. He was included on the roster for the Futures Game and his ceiling remains high, though there are concerns as whether he'll ultimately be able to shoulder the load of a frontline rotation anchor.

Carson Ragsdale, P, SF – An imposing figure on the mound at 6-foot-8, Ragsdale battles command problems at times as other tall hurlers do. Nevertheless, he lists standout strikeout numbers and found his groove at Double-A with a 3.49 ERA and 90:31 K:BB in 67 innings while hitters are batting .197 against. Ragsdale was then promoted to Triple-A, where his wildness instantly returned by walking nine batters through 8.2 innings and two starts while serving up two homers. At 26, the leash is likely short for him as he's also battled several injuries. Ragsdale could eventually be ticketed for the bullpen, but still appears to be ready for a big-league debut.

Zach Messinger, P, NYY – Messinger holds a similar profile to Ragsdale as an older hurler who was used mostly as a reliever in college with plenty of size at 6-foot-6, 225. He's still 24 years and has shown much better command in 2024 with a 3.60 ERA and 92:29 K:BB across 85 innings.  Messinger offers a solid repertoire featuring a fastball/slider/curveball combination while arguably enjoying the best season of any Yankees pitching prospect. A couple of bigger names sit ahead of him on the organizational depth chart (Will Warren, Clayton Beeter and Chase Hampton), though Messinger's durability and production are worth noting.

DOWNGRADE

Brennen Davis, OF, CHC – The rollercoaster minor-league career of Davis continues as he was recently placed on the Injured List due to a back fracture. There's no timetable for his return, and it's possible he could be sidelined for the remainder of the campaign. Davis was once considered a "can't-miss" prospect, but he's battled injury and inconsistency since being drafted in 2018. He was enjoying a slight resurrection at Triple-A when healthy, yet he only played 36 games at the level and has never completed 100 total appearances in any year. Davis has power and patience at the dish, but it's unlikely he'll ever hit for much average as his .229 this season was his highest at Triple-A since 2021. He'll also be 25 during the upcoming offseason. And while the Cubs aren't ready to give up on Davis just yet, their farm system is stacked and he could find himself as the odd man out sooner rather than later.

Ty Madden, P, DET – Madden has struggled since being promoted to Triple-A compiling an ugly 7.95 ERA through 11 starts while conceding nine homers and opposing batters hitting .290 against. The free passes haven't helped his cause with 29 of them in 43 innings. Madden is also averaging more than a strikeout per inning, yet that is arguably where the positives end. The Tigers suddenly boast some depth at starter and Madden hasn't fared well in 2024, so he figures to either bide his time at Triple-A working out the kinks in the rotation or eventually end up in the bullpen - especially if his control issues continue.