Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The Baltimore Orioles have been one of the surprise teams in the big leagues in 2022, keeping pace with the rest of the pack behind the dominant New York Yankees. Baltimore has experienced something of a renaissance even with a rag-tag bunch of starters featuring has-beens, cast-offs and nobodies. While top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez (lat) is currently on the shelf and may not pitch again this season, DL Hall is making a bid to beat him to Baltimore. The hard-throwing lefty has punched out a staggering 22 batters in 10 innings in his last two starts at Triple-A. Hall fanned 14 batters in six innings his last time out in what was perhaps the best start of his professional career to date. The one knock on Hall has been his inability to consistently throw strikes, but if he keeps up this elite level of whiffs, the Orioles are going to be forced to deploy him in some capacity down the stretch as they make a surprising run at a Wild Card bid.

Who else is shaking up the prospect world? Here's a snapshot of some phenoms to take note of in this week's Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Brayan Rocchio, SS, CLE – Rocchio may be on the cusp of a true breakout, as he's hitting .424 with two home runs, six RBI and two steals in his last eight games at Double-A. The switch-hitter is one of the youngest players at this level but has displayed one of the best senses of the strike zone as evidenced by his 50:31 K:BB in 67 games. Rocchio will end up with double-digit home runs and stolen bases for the second straight season, barring injury. Steven Kwan has been a pleasant surprise for the Guardians and Nolan Jones just recently made his MLB debut, but the Guardians still have spots that could use an upgrade. It's not outside the realm of possibility that Rocchio hits the big leagues before the end of next season.

Adael Amador, SS, COL – Amador's 2022 season has been nothing short of sensational.  The switch-hitting teenager is slashing .303/.410/.458 with 10 home runs, 31 RBI and 13 steals through 71 games at Low-A and has more walks (47) than strikeouts (44).  The power and speed bumps are particularly notable, though Amador still may not end up hitting for much power when all is said and done. That said, his polish in the batter's box is advanced beyond his years, and Amador provides plenty of value with his approach at the dish alone.

Jonathan Aranda, 2B, TB – Yet another middle infield prospect will get a chance for the Rays, as Wander Franco was recently placed on the Injured List, giving rise to a promotion for Aranda.  The 24-year-old is slashing .330/.403/.546 with 13 home runs, 57 RBI four steals through 72 contests.  Aranda has shown his breakout 2021 campaign was no fluke, as he continues to flash excellent bat-to-ball skills, the ability to control the strike zone and even pop a few balls out of the yard. The fact that he now possesses double-digit home run power makes him an intriguing fantasy add as a middle infielder, especially with Vidal Brujan's recent demotion. In seven July games at Triple-A, Aranda hit .484 with two home runs and a staggering 16 RBI.

Colson Montgomery, 3B/SS, CHW – Montgomery has not disappointed in his first full season of professional ball. Just 20 years of age, his skill set proved too advanced for Low-A, as he slashed .324/.424/.476 with four home runs and 26 RBI in 45 games to begin the season. That resulted in a quick bump to High-A, where he's continued to shine. Through 13 contests, Montgomery is hitting .333/.456/.511 with two home runs and seven RBI. He also has more walks (10) than strikeouts (6) over that stretch. Montgomery's home run numbers are expected to climb as he matures. He's still at least a couple of years away from hitting primetime, though he appears to have few obstacles in his path at second and even third base when the time comes.

CHECK STATUS

Austin Wells, C, NYY – The New York Yankees have had a banner season, and one of the biggest surprises has been the play of recently-named All-Star Jose Trevino at catcher. However, it remains to be seen if the Yankees view Trevino as a long-term solution, especially with the way Wells has been swinging the bat in the minors. Though he did miss some time due to injury earlier this season, Wells has tormented opposing pitching when healthy at High-A, slashing .323/.429/.576 with six home runs, 16 RBI and nine stolen bases in 28 games. He's since been promoted to Double-A, where he'll likely spend the remainder of the 2022 campaign. Nevertheless, there's a very real chance that Wells sees the big leagues at some point next season.

Eguy Rosario, 2B, SD – It seems as though the Padres organization has an embarrassment of riches up the middle, and Esteury Ruiz has been the talk of the prospect world over the last month. However, Rosario is just 22 years of age and has been scorching of late. Since the start of July, Rosario is hitting .387 with three home runs, 13 RBI and three stolen bases. He's tallied more walks (10) than strikeouts (8) over that span. Overall, Rosario is slashing .269/.364/.490 with 14 home runs, 50 RBI and 14 steals in 79 games at Triple-A.  Rosario often gets overlooked due to his lack of size as well as his penchant for striking out a bit too much, but he should be getting more publicity.

Drew Waters, OF, KC – Once considered the top prospect for Atlanta, Waters has floundered at the Triple-A level. Perhaps a change of scenery is all that he needs, though, as Waters was shipped along with two other players to the Royals in exchange for a high draft pick Monday. Waters should have less competition than he did with his previous organization, and Kansas City also figures to give him a look at the big league level given their current place in the standings. Waters has lost some of his prospect luster, but opportunity could be knocking here following the trade.

Bryce Ball, 1B, CHC – Acquired from the Braves in exchange for Joc Pederson at the trade deadline in 2021, Ball appears to have turned a corner in terms of his plate coverage. After struggling to hit much more than .200 a season ago at High-A, Ball is batting a more than respectable .276 through 78 games at Double-A. Ball's power numbers still leave much to be desired, especially given his huge stature at 6-6, 240-lbs.  Nevertheless, he still has eight home runs and 50 RBI on the season thus far, and his penchant for working the count has led to a .376 on-base percentage. Ball just turned 24 years old and the Cubs are in full rebuilding mode with a huge hole at first base. He is worth keeping on the radar.

DOWNGRADE

Bryce Jarvis, P, AZ – A first round selection in the 2020 draft, Jarvis has had an abysmal 2022 campaign, posting a woeful 8.08 ERA through 14 starts at Double-A. Opposing batters are hitting an obscene .329 against him. While Jarvis does have 60 strikeouts in 57 innings, he has also issued 33 walks while surrendering 13 home runs. Jarvis breezed through High-A to start the 2021 campaign but has hit a wall since entering Double-A in the middle of last year. The former Duke Blue Devil will turn 25 years old in the offseason, so even though the Diamondbacks organization invested a lot in him in terms of draft capital, he may ultimately have a shorter leash given his age.

Jay Allen, OF, CIN – A minor downgrade for Allen, a toolsy outfielder who has shown better plate discipline than anticipated. Allen has a .368 On-Base Percentage through 60 games at Low-A. That has allowed the teenager the opportunity to swipe 27 bags. However, he's hitting just .230 and has clubbed just two home runs. In addition, Allen recently landed on the injured list with an oblique injury, something which could shut him down for the remainder of the season. Allen's physical tools along with his unexpectedly stellar eye at the dish give the Reds plenty of optimism, though he may have to wait until 2023 to continue his climb towards the big leagues.