This article is part of our Minor League Barometer series.
Despite the new Collective Bargaining Agreement attempting to limit service time manipulation, there remains little incentive for bottom-dwellers to promote top prospects to the big leagues after Opening Day. The new CBA incentivized teams for having rookies/prospects on their Major League roster to start the season, but not much else once it kicks off. In fact, a player is awarded a full year of service time only if he finishes in first or second in Rookie of the Year voting. The longer the season drags on without a promotion, the less likely a player is to accomplish that feat.
Despite strides made in the offseason, players like Vinnie Pasquantino will continue to toil in the minors. It's clear he should be with the big club in Kansas City as he's slashing .280/.380/.631 through 57 games at Triple-A while leading the International League in home runs, RBI and slugging percentage. The Royals have a huge hole at first base (and DH) and find themselves in last place and in no hurry to promote Pasquantino. Reading between the lines, the remote possibility of an extra draft pick if the player comes in first, second or third in the Rookie of the Year voting is not worth one less year of control, and not worth paying the player more money down the road - especially for a team that is 23rd in payroll and already paying current first baseman Carlos Santana an albatross of a contract. And remember, these are the same Royals who kept Bobby Witt down
Despite the new Collective Bargaining Agreement attempting to limit service time manipulation, there remains little incentive for bottom-dwellers to promote top prospects to the big leagues after Opening Day. The new CBA incentivized teams for having rookies/prospects on their Major League roster to start the season, but not much else once it kicks off. In fact, a player is awarded a full year of service time only if he finishes in first or second in Rookie of the Year voting. The longer the season drags on without a promotion, the less likely a player is to accomplish that feat.
Despite strides made in the offseason, players like Vinnie Pasquantino will continue to toil in the minors. It's clear he should be with the big club in Kansas City as he's slashing .280/.380/.631 through 57 games at Triple-A while leading the International League in home runs, RBI and slugging percentage. The Royals have a huge hole at first base (and DH) and find themselves in last place and in no hurry to promote Pasquantino. Reading between the lines, the remote possibility of an extra draft pick if the player comes in first, second or third in the Rookie of the Year voting is not worth one less year of control, and not worth paying the player more money down the road - especially for a team that is 23rd in payroll and already paying current first baseman Carlos Santana an albatross of a contract. And remember, these are the same Royals who kept Bobby Witt down in the minors for all of 2021.
Make no mistake about it; service time manipulation still remains very much alive and well.
Shifting gears, let's focus on some prospects making headlines for different reasons in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.
UPGRADE
Andy Pages, OF, LAD – Pages is slashing .313/.436/.781 with four homers and eight RBI in nine June games at Double-A. He's a prospect largely loyal to the three true outcomes: home run, walk, or strikeout. Pages cracked 31 home runs in 120 games at High-A in 2021, drew 77 walks and did not strike out a lot. His K rate has even improved through 53 games this year at a higher level. The Dodgers don't currently need Pages' help at the big league level, so expect the 21-year-old to spend the year at Double-A. That being said, he's enjoyed a resurgent stretch and should be considered among the NL's top 15-20 outfield prospects.
Logan T. Allen, P, CLE – The Double-A rotation for the Guardians has been straight fire, as Allen, Xzavion Curry, Hunter Gaddis and Joey Cantillo all currently find themselves in the top-10 for strikeouts in the Eastern League. And that doesn't include arguably the top prospect in the entire Cleveland organization, Daniel Espino, who's on the Injured List. Allen is considered the best prospect of the active group and leads the league with 82 strikeouts over 60 innings. The southpaw is polished and athletic with an easily repeatable delivery and a changeup as his most effective pitch that should work at any level. Allen seems to be flying under the radar due to his lack of ideal size and fastball that "only" hits 94 on the radar gun, but he's a feisty competitor who knows how to pitch and could see the big leagues as early as next season.
Lenyn Sosa, OF, CHW – Sosa has been aggressively pushed through the White Sox system and has rewarded the organization's faith with a breakout 2022. Signed at 16 out of Venezuela in 2016, Sosa is now at Double-A and is hitting .341/.394/.571 with 13 home runs and 45 RBI through 55 games. He's also on pace to set a career high in walks (currently at 18), and has never accumulated huge strikeout numbers (at 34) even though he's aggressive at the dish. Sosa has always boasted superior contact skills, but his ceiling could go to even greater heights if his newfound power stroke is legitimate.
Ky Bush, P, LAA – A second-round pick in 2021, Bush's upside may be slightly higher than initially expected. The 6-6 southpaw offers outstanding control while also displaying the ability to miss bats with 50 strikeouts in 52.1 innings at Double-A and the opposition hitting .209 against. The 22-year-old is at his best when inducing ground balls having notched a 1.64 GO:AO so far in 2022. Bush has the size, control and command of his fastball to make a big jump up the rankings by the time this year is completed.
CHECK STATUS
Hunter Brown, P, HOU – Brown is in the midst of his best season in the Astros organization having posted a 2.25 ERA and 73:25 K:BB across 52 innings at Triple-A while opposing batters are hitting a measly .188 against. He's also appeared out of the pen in one-third of his outings this season, so this may be a development to watch. Brown's control remains suspect despite his bevy of swings and misses, and could end up being ticketed for the bullpen. That being said, he's started 27 of his 36 appearances over the last two seasons, so a spot in the rotation certainly remains an option.
Ceddanne Rafaela, 3B, BOS – Looks can be deceiving. Rafaela stands at 5-8 and barely weighs 150 pounds, but he's a superb athlete with surprising pop from the right-hand side. He's destroyed High-A pitching to begin the season slashing .330/.368/.594 with nine home runs, 36 RBI and 14 steals in 45 games. He's since been promoted to Double-A, where he's kept his momentum by going 9-for-26 (.346) with two homers and five RBI through six outings. Rafaela's ultra-aggressiveness may ultimately come back to bite him, but he's on an absolute tear and with positional versatility to boot. Boston may end up having to find some place for him to play if he keeps raking.
Bryce Miller, P, SEA – Miller's control was supposed to be suspect coming out of Texas A&M last year, which may have caused him to fall to the fourth round in 2021. He's had little difficulty putting the ball where he wants in the minors thus far posting a 1.83 ERA and 71:17 K:BB in only 54 innings at High-A. Miller can approach triple-digits on the radar gun, but offers a four-pitch arsenal which makes him unpredictable. His slider has been his wipeout pitch, though his curveball and changeup can also be useful. As a former reliever, Miller will be tested at Double-A and his performance at that level may ultimately decide where he ends up. However, the Mariners organization is thrilled with what they've seen so far.
Kerry Carpenter, OF, DET – Carpenter is tied for the minor league lead in homers this season with 20. Already 24, he's repeating Double-A, but wasn't exactly terrible last year. However, Carpenter's numbers have taken a jump in 2022 having slashed .310/.366/.660. His patience at the dish remains a tad suspect, which is certainly a red flag for a power hitter. Carpenter's advanced age and the repeat of levels should also be noted. He's still mashing while the Tigers are devoid of impact outfield prospects after Riley Greene, and the big club is last in the Majors in both slugging and OPS. That makes Carpenter just a little more intriguing.
DOWNGRADE
Matt Canterino, P, MIN – Canterino has been placed on the IL with elbow tendinitis, a troubling development considering his 2021 campaign ended early due to a right elbow strain. When healthy, he's been lights out with a 1.42 ERA since entering the minors. In 2022, Canterino notched a 1.83 mark and a 50:22 K:BB in only 34.2 innings prior to injury. He's also given up just two home runs during his minor league career. However, since being drafted in 2019, Canterino has pitched just 82.1 total frames. Durability is clearly his chief concern, though the injury isn't initially considered serious.
Owen White, P, TEX – The Rangers organization hasn't had much luck developing pitching prospects in recent years, and White has had his trials and tribulations since signing with the franchise. He was drafted out of high school in 2018, but then needed Tommy John surgery in 2019. The pandemic slowed White's return to live game action even more. And in his first start back in May 2021, he fractured his pitching hand in frustration after committing an error. White has shown flashes of his former self in the Arizona Fall League, but the 2022 campaign has been something of a mixed bag with a 72:18 K:BB in 52.2 innings at High-A while also allowing seven home runs in nine starts en route to a 4.27 ERA. He'll turn 23 in August, as his timeline has clearly been delayed due to the above-referenced reasons. The Rangers will take solace in the fact White is taking the ball every fifth day, but he's still far from making an impact in the bigs.
