Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The trade deadline is approaching fast.  The end of July will signal the close of business on the trading front.  Several starting pitchers could be on the move, including Marcus Stroman, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner and perhaps even Trevor Bauer.  The returns for these hurlers will vary, but all will likely involve prospects in some way, shape or form.  The Red Sox have already attempted to shore up their rotation, dealing a couple of lower-level teenaged prospects to the Orioles in exchange for Andrew Cashner.  It will likely take more than what the Red Sox gave up to secure any of the other arms listed above, so be prepared for a bevy of prospects changing organizations as we head into the last couple of months of the 2019 campaign.

In addition, here are some prospects making headlines in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Joey Cantillo, P, SD – The Padres are flush with pitching prospects right now, led by MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patino and Ryan Weathers.  Cantillo has burst onto the scene over the last two seasons, and should be slotted in right after those hurlers.  The 16th-round pick from Hawaii in 2017 has shown signifcant strikeout stuff.  He tormented the opposition in the Arizona (Rookie) League in 2018, and has been equally as dominant in his first taste of full-season ball.  The 6-foot-4, 220lb southpaw is only 19 but has compiled a 2.03 ERA and 105:21 K:BB in just 80 innings at Low-A this year.  Cantillo is athletic, driven and possesses a three-pitch repertoire that is overwhelming the competition at the lower levels.  If he can add a few ticks to his fastball, he'll become a highly sought-after pitching asset.

Sheldon Neuse, 3B, OAK – The A's own a couple of older prospects who are turning in spectacular seasons at Triple-A.  Jorge Mateo is one such phenom, as the 24-year old appears to have returned to form by hitting .300/.335/.519 with 13 home runs, 63 RBI and 18 steals through 86 games.  Neuse is also 24 and was selected in the second round in 2016 out of the University of Oklahoma.  He was the least talked about piece to come back to the A's in the Sean Doolittle trade, as Blake Treinen is currently the club's closer and Jesus Luzardo arguably the organization's top pitching prospect.  Still, Neuse has rewarded the Athletics with a banner season, hitting .317/.391/.543 with 17 home runs and 73 RBI through 89 contests.  Both Mateo and Neuse are blocked at the big-league level, so neither should be much more than a September call-up this season.  That being said, the duo gives the A's significant depth while also even possibly factoring into the club's future plans.

Jonathan Bowlan, P, KC – As frequently noted in this article this season, the Royals loaded up on early-round pitching prospects in the 2018 draft.  Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch, Brady Singer and Kris Bubic appear to form the core of the projected future rotation for the Royals.  However, it would be a mistake to sleep on Bowlan - a second-round selection in the same draft - who for some reason has not received nearly as much fanfare as the aforementioned hurlers.  He certainly has been no less effective in his first full year in the Kansas City organization, as he began the year at Low-A and posted a 3.36 ERA and 74:10 K:BB in 69.2 innings.  Bowlan quickly received a bump to High-A Wilmington, where he has improved with a 1.59 ERA and 38:2 K:BB in 34 innings and has been buoyed by a no-hitter in his most recent start Monday.  Only an error prevented a perfect game, as Bowlan fanned nine batters while failing to allow a run or issue a walk.  This performance should place him firmly on the prospect map, as his control and ability to miss bats should quiet the calls for him to eventually end up in the bullpen.  The development of a third pitch in addition to his fastball and slider will go a long way towards determining his future role.  For now, though, the 6-foot-6, 260lb righty looks at ease in the starting rotation.

Tim Cate, P, WAS – Cate was also a second round selection in the 2018 draft, but looks the complete opposite of the aforementioned Bowlan - at least in terms of body type.  Cate is a smaller, athletic southpaw who had Tommy John surgery in high school, and there has been some concern about his injury history.  However, he's quieted the doubters with a fantastic 2019 campaign thus far by notching a 2.82 ERA and 73:13 K:BB in 70.1 innings at Low-A.  That resulted in a promotion to High-A, where Cate's success has continued with a 2.57 ERA and 27:10 K:BB in 28 innings at this level - with the opposition hitting just .214 against.  Cate boasts a dynamic curveball and a fastball that can reach the mid-90's, and thus far has found little resistance as a starter during his brief time in the minors.

CHECK STATUS

Chris Vallimont, P, MIA – The Marlins have made a concerted effort to try to acquire, draft and/or develop as many high-quality starting pitchers as possible since Derek Jeter took over at the helm.  With arms like Caleb Smith, Zac Gallen, Jordan Yamamoto and Sandy Alcantara already paying dividends, and pitchers like Sixto Sanchez, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera still coming through the pipeline, it is clear Jeter has a plan.  Vallimont was a fifth-round pick in last year's draft out of Mercyhurst, but is enjoying a breakout season in 2019.  He has a classic starting pitcher's frame at 6-foot-5, 220lb, along with a fastball that approaches triple digits and an emerging curveball.  Opposing batters are hitting a putrid .202 against Vallimont this season between Low-A and High-A, and he currently has recorded a 2.52 ERA and 31:6 K:BB in 25 innings for High-A Jupiter.  The 22-year old's name should be added to any conversation about emerging pitching prospects coming out of the Miami organization.

Josh Green, P, ARI – Green is a ground ball extraordinaire who has also upped his strikeout numbers of late.  The 23-year-old righty has not allowed an earned run over his last three starts for Double-A Jackson.  During that time period - a span of 17 innings - Green has punched out 23 batters, including an 11-strikeout performance in his last outing.  He owns a minuscule 1.73 ERA on the season, and has allowed just one home run all year due to his penchant for keeping the ball down.  Initially pegged as a reliever, Green has three quality pitches, can reach the mid-90's with his fastball and has shown no difficulty adjusting to a starting role.  In a system starved for pitching prospects, he could be a fast riser.

Eric Pardinho, P, TOR – The hitting prospects for the Blue Jays have been getting all the publicity over the last year or two, but it would be a mistake to lose sight of some of the arms in the Toronto system just because they don't have famous last names.  Nate Pearson is having an exceptional bounce-back 2019 campaign, posting a 69:10 K:BB in 52 innings between High-A and Double-A.  Pardinho was arguably the top prospect in the 2017 international class, and dazzled in 11 starts in the Rookie League last season.  However, he missed almost three months to begin this year due to elbow soreness.  While Pardinho lacks the typical pitcher's frame, he possesses four pitches, polish and stellar control.  Through three starts at Low-A since being activated from the Injured List, he's registered a 1.93 ERA and 13:4 K:BB over 14 innings.  Pardinho must prove he can stay healthy, but his stuff is elite and this could be an excellent buy-low opportunity before his stock skyrockets.

Thomas Szapucki, P, NYM – Szapucki was one of the top pitching prospects for the Mets before missing all of the 2018 season due to Tommy John surgery.  The 23-year old southpaw has returned to health and does not appear to have missed a beat.  Though the Mets are being predictably cautious with Szapucki, he's managed a 2.40 ERA and 36:13 K:BB in 30 innings between Low-A and High-A.  Opposing batters are hitting a putrid .196 against, while he's averaged 12.1 strikeouts per nine innings during his brief professional career.  With the Mets possibly looking to deal Zack Wheeler and Noah Syndergaard, there could be a changing of the guard behind Jacob deGrom in the New York rotation, with hurlers like Anthony Kay, Simeon Woods Richardson and Szapucki ready to take over the mantle in the next couple of years.

DOWNGRADE

Wander Javier, SS, MIN – Javier's projections are all over the map.  Some pundits feel he is going to be a bust, while others see the 20-year old with superstar potential.  Injuries have largely kept Javier's intrigue alive, having missed all of last season due to a torn labrum and most of 2016 with a hamstring issue.  In between, he wowed scouts in the Appalachian League with his strength and ability to handle the bat.  However, Javier battled a quadriceps strain to begin the 2019 campaign, and as such has only played in 38 games. It's safe to say he has struggled so far this year.  Even with two home runs and six RBI Sunday, Javier is slashing just .161/.259/.266 and has fanned 55 times, stolen just one base and hit only four home runs.  The injuries, inability to hit for average and high strikeout totals dampen his outlook, but his raw tools are substantial - although he needs to stay on the field and start performing consistently.

Bobby Dalbec, 3B, BOS – On the plus side, Dalbec's strikeouts are down, his walks are up, and he remains a potent power prospect for the Red Sox.  An argument can be made he is a poster-prospect for the new generation focused on launch angle, exit velocity and OPS.  On the downside, he is batting a career-low .227 for Double-A Portland, is already 24, and is blocked by the likes of Rafael Devers and Michael Chavis at the big-league level - not to mention the presence of top prospect Triston Casas behind him at Low-A.  Dalbec has also suffered from a bit of a power outage of late, failing to homer in each of the last 10 games.  In a strange twist, he is hitting just .185 over that span, but has posted 11 walks compared to just four strikeouts during that time period.  Hard contact remains the chief concern for Dalbec, who might already be in the big leagues if he were in another organization.  Instead, he likely won't debut for the big club until he turns 25.

Cole Winn, P, TEX – This downgrade should be taken with a grain of salt, as the sample size is small.  Winn has been aggressively placed in full-season ball despite being drafted as a teenaged pitcher in the first round of the 2018 draft, and has looked better of late.  The 2018 Gatorade California High School Player of the Year's overall numbers are rather ugly thus far in 2019, with a 5.50 ERA and 33:19 K:BB in 34.1 innings for Low-A Hickory.  The strikeouts are there but so are the walks, and Winn has yet to pitch more than five innings in any outing this season.  His improvement should be noted, having allowed just three earned runs and impressed with a 14:5 K:BB over his past four starts - or a span of 17 innings.  The 19-year old is just getting his feet wet, and an adjustment clearly has taken place.  That being said, he is far away from making an impact in the big leagues.

Freudis Nova, OF, HOU – Nova represents a raw teenager who once again began the year in extended spring training.  The Astros were perhaps a tad bullish on him in 2018 after a standout year in the Gulf Coast League, and eventually sent him to Low-A Quad Cities to test his growth.  Nova hasn't been bad, per se, but some red flags remain.  He's shown a lack of patience at the dish by posting a 32:3 K:BB in 37 games, but his contact skills don't appear terrible.  Nova has also slashed .278/.302/.403 with two home runs and three steals over that timeframe.  He is projected to eventually have plus power and plus speed, but neither appears to have materialized just yet - at least not in 2019.  Nova remains a project; while the physical tools are apparent, he has plenty of work ahead.