Since the season is about one-sixth done, it's time to find some hitters who are taking a step forward in the power department. To do this, I found hitters who have a new Max Exit Velocity (maxEV) compared to their previous three seasons. A few years back, Rob Arthur determined when maxEV is important:
For every mile per hour above 108 [maxEV], a hitter is projected to gain about 6 points of OPS relative to their predicted number.
Here are the hitters with a maxEV over 108 mph who have raised that maxEV by at least 0.5 mph. Additionally, I found how much their projected OPS should be adjusted upward based on Rob's formula.
| Name | Prev 3-Year MaxEV | New MaxEV | Difference | OPS change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby Mayo | 109.8 | 114.2 | 4.4 | .035 |
| Kyle Karros | 107.5 | 111.8 | 4.3 | .030 |
| Jared Young | 109.4 | 113.5 | 4.1 | .033 |
| Nick Loftin | 107.1 | 110.8 | 3.7 | .022 |
| Nathan Church | 107.0 | 110.1 | 3.1 | .017 |
| Jose Tena | 109.4 | 112.5 | 3.1 | .025 |
| Angel Martinez | 107.4 | 110.1 | 2.7 | .017 |
| Brice Matthews | 108.7 | 111.1 | 2.4 | .019 |
| Brandon Lockridge | 108.1 | 110.4 | 2.3 | .018 |
| Ryan Kreidler | 106.9 | 108.9 | 2.0 | .007 |
| Jac Caglianone | 114.1 | 116.1 | 2.0 | .016 |
| Brady House | 111.5 | 113.4 | 1.9 | .015 |
| J.C. Escarra | 107.1 | 109.0 | 1.9 | .008 |
| Logan O'Hoppe | 112.4 | 114.3 | 1.9 | .015 |
| Davis Schneider | 109.3 | 111.1 | 1.8 | .014 |
| Otto Lopez | 111.2 | 112.8 | 1.6 | .013 |
| Jorbit Vivas | 106.9 | 108.5 | 1.6 | .004 |
| Nick Kurtz | 114.6 | 115.9 | 1.3 | .010 |
| Weston Wilson | 109.0 | 110.3 | 1.3 | .010 |
| Amed Rosario | 110.9 | 112.1 | 1.2 | .010 |
| David Hamilton | 108.8 | 109.9 | 1.1 | .009 |
Since the season is about one-sixth done, it's time to find some hitters who are taking a step forward in the power department. To do this, I found hitters who have a new Max Exit Velocity (maxEV) compared to their previous three seasons. A few years back, Rob Arthur determined when maxEV is important:
For every mile per hour above 108 [maxEV], a hitter is projected to gain about 6 points of OPS relative to their predicted number.
Here are the hitters with a maxEV over 108 mph who have raised that maxEV by at least 0.5 mph. Additionally, I found how much their projected OPS should be adjusted upward based on Rob's formula.
| Name | Prev 3-Year MaxEV | New MaxEV | Difference | OPS change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coby Mayo | 109.8 | 114.2 | 4.4 | .035 |
| Kyle Karros | 107.5 | 111.8 | 4.3 | .030 |
| Jared Young | 109.4 | 113.5 | 4.1 | .033 |
| Nick Loftin | 107.1 | 110.8 | 3.7 | .022 |
| Nathan Church | 107.0 | 110.1 | 3.1 | .017 |
| Jose Tena | 109.4 | 112.5 | 3.1 | .025 |
| Angel Martinez | 107.4 | 110.1 | 2.7 | .017 |
| Brice Matthews | 108.7 | 111.1 | 2.4 | .019 |
| Brandon Lockridge | 108.1 | 110.4 | 2.3 | .018 |
| Ryan Kreidler | 106.9 | 108.9 | 2.0 | .007 |
| Jac Caglianone | 114.1 | 116.1 | 2.0 | .016 |
| Brady House | 111.5 | 113.4 | 1.9 | .015 |
| J.C. Escarra | 107.1 | 109.0 | 1.9 | .008 |
| Logan O'Hoppe | 112.4 | 114.3 | 1.9 | .015 |
| Davis Schneider | 109.3 | 111.1 | 1.8 | .014 |
| Otto Lopez | 111.2 | 112.8 | 1.6 | .013 |
| Jorbit Vivas | 106.9 | 108.5 | 1.6 | .004 |
| Nick Kurtz | 114.6 | 115.9 | 1.3 | .010 |
| Weston Wilson | 109.0 | 110.3 | 1.3 | .010 |
| Amed Rosario | 110.9 | 112.1 | 1.2 | .010 |
| David Hamilton | 108.8 | 109.9 | 1.1 | .009 |
| Carter Jensen | 112.7 | 113.7 | 1.0 | .008 |
| Jahmai Jones | 110.8 | 111.7 | 0.9 | .007 |
| Miguel Vargas | 110.8 | 111.7 | 0.9 | .007 |
| Austin Hays | 111.0 | 111.9 | 0.9 | .007 |
| Tristan Gray | 110.6 | 111.3 | 0.7 | .006 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 109.6 | 110.3 | 0.7 | .006 |
| Henry Davis | 111.6 | 112.3 | 0.7 | .006 |
| Matt McLain | 109.9 | 110.5 | 0.6 | .005 |
| Carson Williams | 109.5 | 110.1 | 0.6 | .005 |
| Alec Burleson | 111.1 | 111.6 | 0.5 | .004 |
| Dansby Swanson | 109.8 | 110.3 | 0.5 | .004 |
| Nick Yorke | 113.0 | 113.5 | 0.5 | .004 |
Here are my thoughts on some of the hitters on the table above:
Coby Mayo: While Mayo is hitting for more power (three home runs), he's doing it with a .181 average. While a .217 BABIP should regress upward and help his batting average, his 29 percent strikeout rate isn't going anywhere. Another issue with him is playing time. He has only five starts in the last seven games. No breakout here.
Kyle Karros: Karros should be in the middle of a breakout, with added power, a six-point drop in strikeout rate and an eight-point increase in walk rate. He seems to be struggling. A .238 BABIP isn't helping, but his Isolated Power (ISO) is only up from .051 to .071. An .592 OPS is far from desirable. His team hasn't lost any faith in him, giving him 11 straight starts.
Nick Loftin: The 27-year-old Loftin has hit in AAA (.808 OPS) but struggled in the majors (.627 OPS). He's hitting a little better this season with a major-league OPS of .698, but with no home runs or steals, he remains fantasy-irrelevant. He has started in four straight games, though.
Nathan Church: The 25-year-old outfielder garnered some recent love with three homers over a two-game span. Right now, all arrows are up. His power is up, and so is his ability to make contact. He's improved his contact rate from 73 percent to 78 percent and cut his strikeouts rate from 28 percent to 23 percent. Finally, there are reports that he could take over in center field. Nice sleeper.
Angel Martinez: It's too late to roster Martinez in many leagues, who already has five homers, five steals and a .278 average. It's nice to see his barrel rate jump from 3.5 percent to 9.6 percent while his strikeout rate has dropped from 23 percent to 20 percent.
Brice Matthews: Even though the power seems legit, he is unrosterable thanks to his 39 percent strikeout rate and .188 batting average.
Brandon Lockridge: While he's hitting the ball harder, he is just making craters in the infield with a 68 percent groundball rate (third highest among hitters with at least 50 plate appearances). While he's not hitting any home runs, he does have five stolen bases on the season, making him a Chandler Simpson knockoff.
Jac Caglianone: There are times he makes loud, hard contact. His 116.1 maxEV is the eighth best in the league this season. The problem is that pitchers are feeding him a steady stream of non-fastballs. Just 38 percent of the pitches he's seen have been fastballs, the seventh lowest among qualified hitters. Without seeing fastballs, his contact rate has dropped from 75 percent to 68 percent and his strikeout rate has ballooned from 22 percent to 32 percent. His upside is limited until he figures out how to handle pitches that break.
Brady House: The power increase seems legit, with his barrel rate improving from four percent to 11 percent. He has a few other issues. First, he continues to strike out around 30 percent of the time. Second, he hits too many balls on the ground, with a 57 percent groundball rate. Finally, he sits regularly, with just seven starts in the last 10 games. Still, if 20 homers with a .235 average is useful in your league, then House should be added.
Davis Schneider: He's having a weird season, with a 22 percent walk rate and a 31 percent strikeout rate. His .130 average has been a killer, with the team sitting him for most of the season. That's changed recently, with starts in four straight games, but he has no hits over that stretch. He's been given a chance to succeed and has fallen right on his face.
Otto Lopez: The added power could turn him into a legit 20-homer, 20-steal guy with a .275 average.
Jorbit Vivas: For a while, the 25-year-old infielder wasn't playing, but he now has five starts in the last seven games. Besides the added power, he's going with a low-strikeout (11 percent), high-groundball (56 percent) approach. While the .288 average is a positive, he needs to get rid of the zeroes next to of his home run and stolen base totals.
Nick Kurtz: I'd like to see Kurtz go for a little more contact (67 percent contact rate) and get his strikeout rate under 30 percent. (He's currently striking out 32 percent of the time).
David Hamilton: As a source of steals (five), Hamilton is fine, but he's not getting to any of his power (.029 ISO) because of a 55 percent groundball rate. At least he helps in on-base leagues with his 13 percent walk rate and .358 OBP.
