Farm Futures: Hitter Predictions

Last season marked the third year of preseason prospect predictions here at RotoWire, and as with most prediction pieces, there were some that looked quite prophetic, and some (quite a few more than in past years) that I would like to permanently remove from the internet.

I got a little too cute with a lot of these in 2018, and before I get my shot at redemption, let's take a look at some notable hits and misses from last year's piece.

The Good

Luis Urias hits double-digit home runs across stops at Triple-A and the majors this season after hitting just nine home runs in his previous 1,306 professional at-bats.

Verdict: He did indeed get to double digits (10) and reached the majors before suffering a season-ending hamstring injury.

Royce Lewis will be at High-A when he turns 19 on June 5 and he will finish his first full season at Double-A. He will hit double-digit home runs and steal over 30 bases en route to entering 2019 as a top-five prospect for dynasty leagues.

Verdict: I was five weeks early on predicting his promotion to High-A, he did not finish the year at Double-A, and was two steals shy of 30, but prediction was pretty on point in a macro sense. He is a top-five prospect for dynasty leagues.

Francisco Mejia will not catch a game in the big leagues this season.

Verdict: He did not catch a game with the team he started the season with (Cleveland) but did catch 10 games after getting traded to San Diego. His ADP last year was around 350 and he was going as high as 253 in NFBC drafts. If you drafted him at all in a 2018 redraft league, it was a wasted pick.

Anthony Santander sticks in the big leagues all season and out-earns Willie Calhoun in 15-team mixed leagues.

Verdict: I knew I had a FADE WILLIE CALHOUN prediction in here, but it wasn't as good as I was hoping. Calhoun was worth -$16 while Santander was worth -$17. The point is, if you paid up for Calhoun, who went as high as 82 in an NFBC draft, it was a wasted pick. If you snagged Santander in the end game, you probably dropped him a week or two into the season.

Heliot Ramos hits under .240 with a strikeout rate over 35 percent in the first half at Low-A. He rebounds a bit in the second half, but his dynasty-league value takes a bit of a hit on the whole.

Verdict: He did not strike out as much as I expected, but hit .245 on the season and you were rewarded if you sold high on Ramos a year ago.

The Bad

Scott Kingery hits .270 with 15-plus home runs and 20-plus steals in the majors after a mid-April promotion from Triple-A.

Verdict: YIKES. In my defense, Kingery's own team was dead wrong about him too. Let this be a cautionary tale for those of you buying into SPRING STATS this year -- Kingery hit .411/.441/.786 last spring.

Jo Adell hits under .250 with a strikeout rate over 27 percent in his full-season debut. He still flashes his impressive power and speed, but enters 2019 outside the top-50.

Verdict: He did not display the characteristics I was expecting until he was playing with found money at Double-A at the end of the year. I am still a little worried about the hit tool, relative to the other prospects inside my top 15, but I was dead wrong on how Adell's first full season would go on the whole.

Austin Beck goes 20/20 as a 19-year-old in his first full season as a pro in the pitcher-friendly Midwest League. He enters 2019 as a top-20 prospect for dynasty leagues.

Verdict: The A's rightfully stressed the development of Beck's hit tool at Low-A, and his power numbers suffered as a result. The upside that led to that disastrous prediction is still there, but we're still waiting on the breakout.

Jhailyn Ortiz is headed to a famed pitcher's park at Low-A Lakewood. It won't matter, he'll still lead the Sally League in wRC+ and ISO before getting a taste of High-A in the second half.

Verdict: NOPE. I'm not preaching patience on this one. He's not in good shape and could be in worse shape by the time he's close to the big leagues. Guys like that need to hit at every stop. 

Sheldon Neuse puts up monster slash lines again in the upper levels of the minors and finishes the season in the middle of Oakland's lineup as the everyday designated hitter.

Verdict: I'm now going to turn off my Twitter notifications and throw my computer out the window.

20 Hitter Predictions for 2019

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits .315 with 26 HR and beats out Eloy Jimenez, who hits .292 with 27 HR, for AL Rookie of the Year.
2. Wander Franco, who just turned 18, finishes the year at Double-A and enters 2020 as the game's top prospect.
3. Bo Bichette out-earns Fernando Tatis Jr. in 15-team mixed leagues.
4. Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach each hit over .300 with 20-plus HR over multiple minor-league stops and we head into the offseason with long-term questions about how the Twins will find room for five talented outfielders.
5. Luis Garcia (WAS), who turns 19 in May, hits .300 at Double-A and finishes the year at Triple-A.
6. Kristian Robinson turns in a 20/20 season across stops at Low-A and High-A en route to entering 2020 as a top-five prospect.
7. Ke'Bryan Hayes, who has hit 15 total HR in 348 games since entering pro ball, hits 15 HR while hitting .300 and stealing double-digit bases at Triple-A. He enters 2020 as a top-12 prospect.
8. Taylor Trammell, who has a career .284 AVG in the minors, hits .255 with fewer than 10 HR at Double-A and sees his dynasty-league stock take a hit.
9. Brendan Rodgers logs a wRC+ under 100 at Triple-A (below league average).
10. Nolan Gorman strikes out over 32 percent of the time in a return to Low-A. He gets to his power, but his stock falls as even those highest on him start to doubt whether he can hit for a decent average against advanced pitching.
11. Jordan Groshans hits .290 with 20 HR as a 19-year-old at Low-A and gets a taste of High-A at the end of the season.
12. Luis Robert is solid in a return trip to High-A, but falls flat after an early-June promotion to Double-A. He enters 2020 outside the top 100.
13. Jorge Mateo, who is coming off a horrific 2018 season (62 wRC+), bounces back in a big way this season at Triple-A and logs five steals in September for the big-league club.
14. Jordyn Adams hits under .260 with fewer than five HR in his full-season debut.
15. Tirso Ornelas, who just turned 19, follows up an impressive, albeit injury-plagued 2018 season by hitting 20 HR with a .300 AVG in the California League before a late-season promotion to Double-A.
16. Jake Fraley, who has not played above High-A, surprisingly reaches the majors in late June. While he understandably goes through growing pains at times, he finishes with 10-plus HR and 10-plus SB across less than four months of MLB at-bats.
17. The word "bust" starts to be thrown out with regard to Alec Bohm, who logs a wRC+ under 100 at Low-A.
18. Noelvi Marte doesn't impress quite to the extent that Marco Luciano does in their respective pro debuts, but he emerges as the clear No. 2 prospect from last year's J-2 class, behind Luciano.
19. Antoni Flores flashes a plus hit tool with some power and speed in the New York-Penn League en route to a late-season promotion to Low-A and a landing spot in the top 100 in the offseason.
20. Israel Pineda is this year's breakout catching prospect, hitting for power and average at Low-A and entering 2020 as a top-125 prospect.

BONUS -- 10 short-season breakout picks from outside the top 200: Gabriel Rodriguez (CLE), Osleivis Basabe (TEX), Alexander Vargas (NYY), Johnathan Rodriguez (CLE), Luis Toribio (SFG), Angel Rojas (NYY), Juan Pie (PIT), Gilberto Jimenez (BOS), Alejandro Pie (TB), Randy Florentino (TEX)