This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
There are all kinds of theories out there regarding how catching prospects should be valued in dynasty leagues. Some will argue that because reliable production at the position is so scarce, good catching prospects need to be highly valued. I would counter that "good catching prospects" often turn out to be less than stellar, so we should not assume this year's top catching prospects will be the cure to what ails us. Further complicating matters is the fact that anywhere from 10 to 30, or even more, catchers start in some dynasty leagues. I rank prospects with the assumption that 20 catchers start (the RotoWire Dynasty Invitational is a 20-team league where every team starts one catcher). If I were ranking catchers under the assumption that 30 catchers have to start, then I would rank the catching prospects a little higher. If I were ranking catchers under the assumption that only 12 or 15 catchers have to start, I might only have eight or 10 catchers ranked in my entire top 400.
Another factor that makes this position so tricky to evaluate is the unique way production at the position is measured by MLB teams. Most contending teams will not give significant playing time to a catcher who is a poor defender. Framing matters a lot, as does game calling and handling a pitching staff. Controlling the running game also matters, but not nearly as much as framing. So, when a catcher like Francisco Mejia gets poor grades on his
There are all kinds of theories out there regarding how catching prospects should be valued in dynasty leagues. Some will argue that because reliable production at the position is so scarce, good catching prospects need to be highly valued. I would counter that "good catching prospects" often turn out to be less than stellar, so we should not assume this year's top catching prospects will be the cure to what ails us. Further complicating matters is the fact that anywhere from 10 to 30, or even more, catchers start in some dynasty leagues. I rank prospects with the assumption that 20 catchers start (the RotoWire Dynasty Invitational is a 20-team league where every team starts one catcher). If I were ranking catchers under the assumption that 30 catchers have to start, then I would rank the catching prospects a little higher. If I were ranking catchers under the assumption that only 12 or 15 catchers have to start, I might only have eight or 10 catchers ranked in my entire top 400.
Another factor that makes this position so tricky to evaluate is the unique way production at the position is measured by MLB teams. Most contending teams will not give significant playing time to a catcher who is a poor defender. Framing matters a lot, as does game calling and handling a pitching staff. Controlling the running game also matters, but not nearly as much as framing. So, when a catcher like Francisco Mejia gets poor grades on his defense, and specifically his framing, this matters a lot for dynasty leagues. If we can't bank on Mejia getting 400-plus plate appearances in a full season, then he's just not that valuable. Similarly, if we know a guy is a good enough defender that he will stick at the position, that boosts his dynasty-league value.
Here are the 2019 catching prospect tiers:
TIER ONE
1. Keibert Ruiz, Dodgers
2. Joey Bart, Giants
3. MJ Melendez, Royals
The only three catching prospects inside the top 100, not only do these guys have significant offensive upside, but they are good enough defenders to make 70-85 percent of the starts behind the dish once they are up, which really matters. I get the sense that many people view Bart as the top prospect at the position, which makes sense, given his pedigree and success after signing. However, consider the fact that Bart finished the year as a 21-year-old mashing in the short-season Northwest League, while Ruiz was a league-average hitter in his age-19/20 season at Double-A and Melendez posted a 128 wRC+ as a 19-year-old at Low-A. Imagine what those two would have done against Northwest League pitching last season. I think Melendez and Bart are going to have very similar profiles when they reach the big leagues, the main difference is that Bart hasn't faced good enough pitching for him to display the swing-and-miss issues Melendez has shown. Ruiz is a different prospect than Bart and Melendez, as he is hit-over-power rather than power-over-hit, but all production matters. Ruiz may hit .285 with 15 homers while Bart/Melendez could hit .250 with 25 homers.
TIER TWO
4. Danny Jansen, Blue Jays
5. Francisco Mejia, Padres
6. Ronaldo Hernandez, Rays
7. Daulton Varsho, Diamondbacks
8. Andrew Knizner, Cardinals
9. William Contreras, Braves
There is not a common theme that ties these six catchers together. However, Jansen, Mejia, Hernandez, Varsho and Knizner are all seen as better hitters than defenders, while Contreras is more well-rounded. Every catcher in this tier has the upside to be a top-five fantasy catcher some day, but it is unclear how much playing time they will all receive. Contreras is the best defender of the group, but also has the lowest offensive ceiling.
TIER THREE
10. Anthony Seigler, Yankees
11. Bo Naylor, Indians
After Bart, these are the top catching prospects from the 2018 draft. It should be noted that prep catching prospects almost never pan out, but these two are still intriguing. I prefer Seigler because he is a cinch to stick behind the plate and has 80-grade makeup. He has a chance to hit for a high average, get on base at a strong clip and bang out 15 homers annually. Naylor has already seen time at third base, and may get starts there on days he is not catching. He may have the slightly higher ceiling of these two, but Seigler is the better bet to be a top-10 fantasy catcher some day.
TIER FOUR
12. Willians Astudillo, Twins
13. Sean Murphy, A's
14. Austin Allen, Padres
15. Diego Cartaya, Dodgers
16. Miguel Amaya, Cubs
17. Garrett Stubbs, Astros
Astudillo is not a traditional prospect (he is essentially a journeyman) and is already 27, but he is ready to help with batting average in 2019. Murphy is one of the best defensive catchers in the minors, and could provide some pop without a crippling batting average. Allen might have the highest offensive upside on this entire list, but he is also the worst defender. Most evaluators expect him to end up at first base or DH. Cartaya was one of the top prizes of the July 2 international signing period in 2018, and he could be the top catching prospect in the game some day. Amaya is far away but could be solid, while Stubbs is basically big-league ready but may not figure into the Astros' immediate plans.
Honorable Mentions: Tyler Stephenson (CIN), Heriberto Hernandez (TEX), Zack Collins (CWS), Will Smith (LAD), Ryan Jeffers (MIN), Francisco Alvarez (NYM), Mario Feliciano (MIL), Israel Pineda (WAS), Ivan Herrera (STL), Antonio Gomez (NYY), Rafael Marchan (PHI), Andy Yerzy (ARI), Logan O'Hoppe (PHI), Jake Rogers (DET), David Garcia (TEX), Alejandro Kirk (TOR), Rodolfo Duran (PHI), Hendrik Clementina (CIN), Scott Manea (HOU), Samuel Inoa (PIT), Will Banfield (MIA), Jacob Nottingham (MIL), Luis Campusano (SD), Ben Rortvedt (MIN), Deivi Grullon (PHI), Deon Stafford (PIT), Gabriel Moreno (TOR), Blake Hunt (SD), Cal Raleigh (SEA), Hagen Danner (TOR), Abrahan Gutierrez (PHI)
