Farm Futures: California League Roundup

With the 2017 MLB Draft coverage in the books and the overall top 400 prospect rankings and team top 20s updated, our tour of the minor leagues picks back up with a trip to the California League. This league carries the reputation of being one the most hitter-friendly leagues in the minors, but with Bakersfield and High Desert moving to the Carolina League this year, the Cal League is actually pretty neutral, with one big exception: Lancaster. So for every Rockies hitter mentioned below, there will undoubtedly be an obligatory Lancaster qualifier. In prior league roundups I focused just on hitters or pitchers, but there were so few hitters that were noteworthy in this league that I also touched on the noteworthy starting pitchers. As always, each player's rank in the Top 400 is noted.

Brendan Rodgers, SS/2B, Lancaster (Rockies): .400/.419/.700, 12 HR, three 3B, 21 2B, 2-for-3 on SB attempts, 31:6 K:BB in 210 ABs.
Rank: 11

Rodgers is such a complicated player to rank for dynasty leagues. On the one hand, he has a 1.406 OPS at Lancaster, compared to an .835 OPS and just one walk in 107 at-bats on the road. This would typically lead to him being one of the most overrated prospects in the game. However, he is ticketed to play his home games in extreme hitting environments for the foreseeable future, particularly at Albuquerque (Triple-A) and Coors Field, so does it really matter that he is taking advantage of a favorable home park at High-A? I think it matters, but it doesn't matter much. Similarly, does it matter that his 2.7 percent walk rate is the lowest rate among qualified Cal League hitters? Yes, it matters, but again, it doesn't matter as much as some may think. Why should a hitter who is hitting .400 and slugging .700 be trying to take a walk? These are all factors that dynasty league owners need to be aware of, and I like the idea of dangling him just to see what kind of haul is out there, but this is obviously a high-end fantasy prospect. He is expected to be promoted to Double-A Hartford in the coming days, and should remain there for the rest of the season. It will be interesting to see what he does while spending half his games in the most neutral home park he will have played in as a professional.

Yadier Alvarez, RHP, Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers): 5.32 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 47:19 K:BB in 45.2 IP.
Rank: 36

His season looks a little ugly on the surface, but this seems like a prime buy-low opportunity. Alvarez has allowed just one hit in three of his 11 outings, showing that he can still be borderline unhittable on the right night. His 3.82 FIP and 3.84 xFIP suggest he has been a bit unlucky, and the inflated ratios can actually be traced back to a few rough outings. If we remove his two outings against Lancaster and a May 28 start against Stockton, he has a 2.62 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 37 strikeouts in 34.1 innings over the remaining eight appearances. This is still an elite pitching prospect with the repertoire, frame, athleticism and command to profile near or at the top of a big-league rotation in time.

Cal Quantrill, RHP, Lake Elsinore (Padres): 3.69 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 65:21 K:BB in 61 IP.
Rank: 65

Now roughly 27 months removed from Tommy John surgery, his command should be all the way back. However, his 8.0 percent walk rate is a little underwhelming for a 22-year-old pitching prospect at High-A whose polish should be as evident as his stuff. Quantrill may end up being more No. 3 than No. 2 starter, which will still be fine, he just hasn't taken the type of leap many thought was possible entering the season.

Mitchell White, RHP, Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers): 3.72 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 49:16 K:BB in 38.2 IP.
Rank: 84

White, who is out until mid-July with a broken toe, held Cal League hitters to a .187 average prior to his injury and has emerged as a top-30 pitching prospect in the game. The reason for his ascension up prospect ranks is increased velocity on his fastball, which allows him to showcase a plus heater that can miss bats in and out of the zone, along with a hard slider/cutter that serves as a plus secondary pitch. His curveball is his third pitch, and if he can improve that offering, White has No. 2/3 starter ceiling. Once he returns, he could quickly force his way to Double-A and is a candidate to join the big-league rotation at some point in 2018.

Matt Thaiss, 1B, Inland Empire (Angels): .262/.351/.396, seven HR, two 3B, 10 2B, 3-for-6 on SB attempts, 44:33 K:BB in 260 ABs.
Rank: 144

The Cal League features a pair of very unique first basemen in Thaiss and Josh Naylor, who don't fit the prototype of what we are typically looking for in first base prospects. In the case of Thaiss, he has the elite approach that most quality first basemen have in the big leagues, but a 22-year-old first base prospect in the Cal League should probably be slugging over .400, and Thaiss is not. Thaiss was never a guy who projected to have plus power, so we really shouldn't be that surprised. His biggest supporters were betting on the hit tool and likely expecting an elite batting average that would lead to a slash line closer to .310/.400/.440. In that case it would have been easier to accept the fact that he may never be more than a 20-homer bat in his peak years. His .289 BABIP is a little low, so he is probably better than a .262 hitter at this level, but he really needs to be close to a .300 hitter to make the lack of power work, and so far we have not seen that against full-season pitching.

Yusniel Diaz, OF, Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers): .279/.349/.400, five HR, two 3B, 10 2B, 5-for-13 on SB attempts, 61:27 K:BB in 240 ABs.
Rank: 162

Diaz now has 13 home runs and is 12-for-28 on stolen-base attempts in 143 games in the Cal League. It must be pointed out that he was the second youngest player in the league last year and is still one of the youngest players in the league this year, but the production in his repeat tour of the league is probably not what the Dodgers or his dynasty league owners had in mind. He hits right-handed and may profile best in left field long term, which would put an awful lot of pressure on his bat, particularly against same-handed pitchers (.631 OPS against RHP this season), if he hopes to eventually make it as an everyday player.

Josh Naylor, 1B, Lake Elsinore (Padres): .299/.363/.463, seven HR, one 3B, 15 2B, 7-for-7 on SB attempts, 44:22 K:BB in 231 ABs.
Rank: 168

Of the 19 qualified big-league first basemen who have been at least league average hitters this year (100 wRC+ or better), only five of them have walk rates below 10 percent. Guys like Jose Abreu, Ryan Zimmerman and Eric Hosmer are the exception, not the rule, at first base. Typically players with nowhere else to go on the defensive spectrum bring excellent OBP skills to the table to make up for their defensive deficiencies. While Naylor's 8.6 percent walk rate is a career-best mark, he is still at High-A. There is reason to believe he would struggle quite a bit once he gets to a level like Double-A or Triple-A where he will not be able to get by on just bat-to-ball ability. He has plus-plus raw power, but is not great at getting to it in games. If Matt Thaiss had Naylor's power, or Naylor had Thaiss's approach, then we would have a high-end first base prospect to dream on. Youth is on Naylor's side, as he just turned 20, but he will face an uphill battle as he continues to climb the organizational ladder.

Bryan Reynolds, OF, San Jose (Giants): .295/.340/.418, three HR, five 3B, 11 2B, 0-for-3 on SB attempts, 56:15 K:BB in 244 ABs.
Rank: 182

If Reynolds got to play half his games at Lancaster, the hype around him in dynasty leagues would likely be quite a bit louder, but alas, he plays half his games in the pitcher-friendly ballpark in San Jose. He has just a .605 OPS at home, compared to an .898 OPS on the road. Speed seems to no longer be a part of his game, which isn't a huge surprise as he was just an average runner coming out of Vanderbilt, but there was some hope that he could steal 10-15 steals annually early in his career. His stock is trending in the wrong direction, but he has just 75 games at a full-season affiliate under his belt, so it's possible he heats up this summer as he gets better acclimated to the level.

Jacob Nix, RHP, Lake Elsinore (Padres): 3.00 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 18:2 K:BB in 24 IP.
Rank: 184

He missed the first six weeks of the season with a groin injury, but has been his normal self since returning. He has an above average fastball, a plus curveball and a potentially average changeup, but it's his above-average command/control that allows the whole package to play up. Nix is a likely No. 4 starter with the potential to be a No. 3 if his changeup improves.

DJ Peters, OF, Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers): .261/.381/.494, 12 HR, four 3B, 12 2B, 3-for-6 on SB attempts, 98:37 K:BB in 241 ABs.
Rank: 190

Peters' 33.9 percent strikeout rate (fifth worst in the Cal League) is tough to stomach, but considering he came out of a small school (Western Nevada), finished last season in the Pioneer League, then bypassed Low-A altogether and now has a 142 wRC+ at High-A, it has been quite an impressive start to his pro career. He has the fifth highest walk rate (12.8 percent) in the league and the highest slugging percentage among non-Rockies prospects in the league, despite being 1.6 years younger than league average. There are dozens of less flawed outfield prospects in the minors, but for owners in deep leagues, Peters is a worthwhile stash.

Eric Lauer, LHP, Lake Elsinore (Padres): 2.15 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 76:16 K:BB in 62.2 IP.
Rank: 247

Lauer should be promoted to Double-A any day now. He lacks a plus pitch, but the sum of the parts allows him to excel against High-A hitters. That could change in a hurry when he gets to Double-A or Triple-A, but for now his stock is trending up. He is one of a handful of Padres pitching prospects with a likely role as a No. 4 starter and a chance for a bit more.

Will Smith, C, Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers): .234/.371/.418, seven HR, three 3B, 10 2B, 6-for-8 on SB attempts, 58:34 K:BB in 201 ABs.
Rank: 250

Smith is a very unique catching prospect, in that he might be able to hit, or at least get on base at an above average clip, and also possesses useful speed on the bases. He projects to have the defensive chops to handle regular work behind the plate and is an average runner, which has led to his success on the bases thus far as a pro (9-for-12). His 13.7 percent walk rate ranks third in the Cal League. Smith was not expected to be much of a power threat in pro ball, but the early returns suggest he will at least chip in 8-to-12 homers annually. He is not in that top tier of dynasty league catching prospects (although he might be in OBP leagues), but he could reasonably be slotted in at or near the top of that next tier.

Michael Gettys, OF, Lake Elsinore (Padres): .259/.336/.436, nine HR, two 3B, 16 2B, 13-for-19 on SB attempts, 103:26 K:BB in 266 ABs.
Rank: 266

Gettys keeps hitting for just enough power and doing just enough on the bases to remain relevant in deeper dynasty leagues, despite mounting evidence that his hit tool won't play in the upper levels of the minors. He has the best pure tools in the Cal League, but also ranks fourth in the league with a 34.3 percent strikeout rate, despite this marking a repeat trip to the league for him.

Brian Mundell, 1B, Lancaster (Rockies): .299/.379/.504, 12 HR, one 3B, 16 2B, 44:35 K:BB in 264 ABs.
Rank: 289

Of all the Rockies hitting prospects at High-A, Mundell has the least distinguishable home/road splits (.900 home OPS, .863 road OPS). It is getting pretty hard to argue with the premise that Mundell is a pretty good hitter, but simply being a pretty good hitter does not guarantee a righty-hitting first baseman a big-league future. He will need to develop into a damn good hitter and catch a break or two to pull off that profile, especially when considering that he is 23 years old and hasn't reached Double-A yet.

Nick Neidert, RHP, Modesto (Mariners): 3.31 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 82:10 K:BB in 73.1 IP.
Rank: 297

Neidert's fastball is his third best pitch, which is typically not a great place to start. However, the curveball, changeup and command project as plus tools for the 6-foot-1 righty, so he might be able to serve as a high-end No. 4 starter even if his fastball only occasionally touches 91 mph. His 3.4 percent walk rate is the best mark among qualified Cal League starters, and his 28 percent strikeout rate ranks fifth.

Heath Quinn, OF, San Jose (Giants): .288/.352/.559, eight HR, six 2B, 29:9 K:BB in 111 ABs.
Rank: 303

He missed the first month of the season with a wrist injury, but so far his performance has not been affected by any lingering discomfort. Quinn, 22, faces the very difficult task of somehow proving that he could be an everyday corner outfielder despite hitting right-handed and having a questionable hit tool. We probably won't have a good read on his chances of getting on base at a high clip until he faces Double-A and Triple-A pitching. So far, so good.

Garrett Hampson, 2B/SS, Lancaster (Rockies): .318/.384/.433, three HR, four 3B, 13 2B, 19-for-23 on SB attempts, 43:29 K:BB in 261 ABs.
Rank: 321

Here is a prime example of the Lancaster effect. Hampson sports a .963 OPS at home and a .650 OPS on the road. With the aid of his home ballpark, he is a very intriguing middle-infield prospect, but on the road, he is essentially a non-prospect. The one thing that keeps him relevant is his plus speed, as he could be a serviceable fantasy middle infielder if he reaches Coors Field and somehow finds his way to semi-regular playing time.

Sam Hilliard, OF, Lancaster (Rockies): .302/.378/.516, 11 HR, five 3B, 11 2B, 19-for-24 on SB attempts, 69:31 K:BB in 252 ABs.
Rank: 331

All four of the JetHawks outfielders are 23 years old and hitting at least 10 percent better than league average, taking great advantage of the conditions in the league and specifically the home cooking at Lancaster. Mylz Jones (who plays third base and left field), Wes Rogers and Yonathan Daza all sport at least plus speed and solid contact skills, but Hilliard is the one with in-game power to go with that speed. All four players are unlikely to ever make it as everyday players in the majors, but Hilliard's production (144 wRC+), tools and handedness (LHH) makes him worthy of attention as he moves up the organizational ladder.

Joey Lucchesi, LHP, Lake Elsinore (Padres): 2.39 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 89:18 K:BB in 71.2 IP.
Rank: 400

Lucchesi is 24 and there are questions about the viability of his breaking ball, but his fastball/changeup combo and above average command have allowed him to post some of the most impressive numbers in the league. There is No. 3 starter potential if he can add an average or better breaking ball.

OTHERS OF NOTE

Braden Bishop, OF, Modesto (Mariners): .309/.411/.403, one HR, two 3B, 16 2B, 13-for-17 on SB attempts, 44:37 K:BB in 243 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Drew Jackson, SS/2B/3B/OF, Rancho Cucamonga (Dodgers): .242/.375/.424, five HR, one 3B, seven 2B, 6-for-11 on SB attempts, 38:21 K:BB in 132 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Austin Allen, C, Lake Elsinore (Padres): .247/.341/.394, five HR, 14 2B, 53:26 K:BB in 198 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked

Sergio Alcantara, SS, Visalia (Diamondbacks): .284/.346/.383, three HR, two 3B, 11 2B, 8-for-18 on SB attempts, 40:23 K:BB in 243 ABs.
Rank: Not ranked