Eight games are featured on FanDuel's main slate Saturday evening, getting underway at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Similar to Friday, we have three arms priced in five-figures. Dissimilar to Friday, there isn't a massive drop off, but rather this slate is incredibly deep with pay up arms as five more come in at $9,400 or more. That's 50 percent of the options, likely forcing your hand.
Twins-Rockies comes with a slate-high 9.5 runs, followed by Nations-Orioles at 9.0. Unsurprisingly, the Dodgers (-205) are the slate's biggest favorite followed by the Brewers (-164) before things narrow. Winds shift, so please confirm closer to first pitch, but as of early Saturday morning, they're calling for 17 MPH gusts out in San Francisco. I'm a little skeptical after not seeing the ball carry there last night. Minnesota looks like a spot to monitor as well.
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Pitching
Logan Gilbert, SEA at CLE ($10,000): Gilbert has reached at least 34 FanDuel points in six straight outings, topping 50 his last two. With no Jose Ramirez, the Guardians are a nightly target and come with a low 3.6 run expectancy. Even with Ramirez, they have a below average 93 wRC+ off righties, and while the sample isn't huge (48 plate appearances), current Guardians are hitting .208 with a .625 OPS against him, striking out a whopping 33.3 percent of the time. There are some pitch limit concerns with Emerson Hancock likely to work in tandem, but that should only push down roster percentages.
Logan Webb, SF vs. ATL ($9,400): Wind? What wind....Webb counters it with a 51.7 percent ground ball rate. He seems locked in, going eight innings in each of his last three starts. Know who's not locked in? The Braves. They snapped a four-game skid last night by scoring all of three runs and have now been held to three or fewer nine times in their last 15 games. They do have positive numbers against Webb (.345 in 119 at-bats), but I'll roll with both sides' form over that history. If you're fading Webb, Michael Harris ($3,300) is 7-for-14 with two homers.
Jack Perkins, ATH at LAA ($7,400): Perkins seems to have enough juice where he can provide a serviceable return for a discount. He's fanning 11.2 per inning, and his overall 6.26 ERA comes with a 3.82 xFIP, which is even more pronounced on the road (6.32 ERA, 2.94 xFIP). We're going to need the strikeouts to get the points we need, and the Angels figure to oblige, fanning 25.1 percent of the time against righties. He faced them in his last outing, allowing four runs but striking out eight in five innings, good for a 3.6x return. That's should be enough if your bats click.
Top Targets
David Peterson has allowed 13 runs and four homers in his last 10.2 innings. Jackson Chourio ($4,000) has a .392 wOBA off lefties and seems like a solid building block. He's homered four times in his last 12 but none in his last six; he's due.
Cardinals lefties appear to be in a good spot against Ryan Gusto, who is allowing a .378 wOBA to them against .284 to righties. A mini-stack atop their lineup, which has a 5.0 run expectancy, would work with JJ Wetherholt ($3,500) and Alec Burleson ($3,400).
Bargain Bats
Michael Lorenzen has actually been serviceable over his last three, allowing "just" six runs in 15.1 innings. So perhaps fade the obvious, and target some cheap secondary Twins. Lorenzen is still allowing a .473 wOBA to lefties. Trevor Larnach ($2,800) is my preference, hitting .429 in his last 10. But Josh Bell ($3,000) is 9-for-31 (.290) with two homers off him, and Kody Clemens ($3,100) is viable too despite poor recent results.
You can stay in Minnesota and consider Rockies' bats for further value. TJ Rumfield ($2,900) seems to be being ignored, but is hitting .409 in his last six and .354 with 13 RBI in his last 12.
If you want to go cheap against Peterson, Andrew Vaughn ($2,800) has a .567 wOBA and 1.364 OPS off southpaws.
Stacks to Consider
Dodgers vs. Randy Vasquez (Padres): Freddie Freeman ($3,400), Andy Pages ($3,400), Mookie Betts ($3,000)
Certainly an easy/obvious/popular call. Load up the offense with a high run expectancy and the slate's biggest favorite. How you choose to do so may be the only way to be different. Pages is 3-for-8 with two homers off him; Freeman is 3-for-7 with two doubles. The former is cold and not must use; the latter flirts with it, hitting .429 in his last six. Betts is hitless in seven at bats against the Padres' starter but is hitting .375 with four homers in his last 12. I can overlook the lack of BvP success if you assume the Dodgers chase Vasquez early.
Giants vs. Bryce Elder (Braves): Casey Schmitt ($3,300), Luis Arraez ($3,100), Willy Adames ($2,800)
The shine is off Elder, allowing 19 runs in 22.2 June innings. There aren't massive splits to target, so we'll simply take some bargain options as a sneaky and cheaper stacking option. Schmitt can anchor, and has four-position flexibility while hitting .395 in his last 11 games. Arraez doesn't bring tremendous upside but will hit leadoff, is hitting .333 in his last four and is 5-for-15 with a homer off Elder. Adames is my third piece because of price and BvP success, going 5-for-16 with two long balls off him.
