Collette Calls: Where Are the Wins Going?

There have been 613 games won across the league as play begins May 12, this despite the fact more than half the teams in the league are currently playing below .500 baseball. That is the beauty of baseball; every game results in a win and a loss being assigned to a player on each team. Sometimes those wins are earned, sometimes they are gifted, and the same can be said for losses. Yet things just feel a bit different this year because of the current state of affairs, particularly in the American League, where just four of the 15 teams have a .500 or better record. I wanted to dig into the numbers to see if there was anything to this disturbance, or whether it's just baseball, Suzyn, and things will normalize as the season progresses. 

This time last year, there were 618 wins in baseball shared amongst 160 starting pitchers and 314 pitchers overall. We currently have 613 wins being earned by 152 starting pitchers and 315 pitchers overall. Right out of the gate, the theory is having trouble holding any water because those differences are negligible. So, let's move down to the team level.

While wins are proliferating into bullpens more in recent years than they did in years past, most fantasy managers plan their draft strategy around wins by targeting starting pitchers. Relief wins are mostly gravy — great if you can get them — but incredibly tough to project or rely upon over the course of a season. Nobody had Adrian Morejon winning 13 games in relief last season or Edwin Uceta winning 10 out of the pen for a 77-win Tampa Bay club. The rotation is where wins are chased, even if some leak to the pen. 

Relievers garnered 39 percent of wins at this point in 2025, while bullpens are stealing slightly more this season at 41 percent. Again, I find these differences to be negligible, but it likely means a few more wins are sitting in free agent piles in your league, being pulled in by non-rosterable middle relievers. We also should take a moment to admire Aaron Ashby, as he's on pace for a 20-win season out of the bullpen with seven wins in 19 appearances, hoping to Mike Marshall his way to a Cy Young Award. 

The prevailing thought in my head as I wrote this article was that the wins must be rather concentrated around certain teams since there is such an inbalance in the current standings between the haves and the have-nots, but even that struggled to hold water. If we were to simply look at the teams whose starting pitchers have earned the highest percentage of team wins, the top three teams are currently last or second-last in their respective divisions:

I heard a stat while watching the Sunday broadcast between the Rays and Red Sox which said Boston is 6-0 when shutting down opponents, but 11-22 when allowing any amount of runs. That tracks, because they also have a 4.47 ERA as a rotation, so it's been feast or famine. Houston is in a similar situation, as they win games when their starters pitch well, but that 5.06 rotation ERA tells you they do not pitch well that often. San Francisco has the best ERA of this trio at 4.31, but they also have a dreadful offense and are tied with Boston for the second-lowest wRC+ as a team. 

In short, the best chances for a starting pitcher to get a win are with three teams bringing up the rear in the standings. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is a 22-16 club, yet their starters have won just 10 of those 22 games, with only the New York Mets starters having done worse:

Milwaukee and Tampa Bay are doing their thing and it is not surprising to see them as outliers in that their rotations are earning a lower percentage of the team wins than the league. Milwaukee has used an opener three times this season, with Ashby, DL Hall and Shane Drohan each pitching in front of another starter. Tampa Bay has used Griffin Jax, Jesse Scholtens, Cole Sulser and Mason Englert in front of another starter, but the season loss of Ryan Pepiot as well as injuries to Joe Boyle and Steven Matz have since evolved both Jax and Scholtens into regular starters. 

How is this actionable for your fantasy teams? If wins are currently running at a 59/41 split between rotations and bullpens, and you're struggling with wins in your league (who isn't?), you can use this chart to help you with tie-breakers in your FAAB or trade decision-making to see which acquisitions or lineup moves can put you in the best position for the probability of getting a win from your rotation. If you really want to have fun, you can lean into that MIlwaukee, Tampa Bay or San Diego pen and play reliever roulette in search of wins, but I don't advise it.