Collette Calls: AL Closers in Waiting

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Updated on February 2, 2016 3:57PM EST

We mostly know the closers in the American League. We also know that closers lose their role 30-35 percent of the time year after year, so speculating on who might be next in line helps in-season, especially if you roster those guys in the end game or even the reserve rounds. Let's look at each American League bullpen (NL next week) to see who might next in line based on skills. We'll include the current closer in the numbers for context.

These were the league totals for relief pitchers in 2015 for the statistics below:

K-BB%	K%	BB%	FB%	HR/FB%	Z-Contact%	Swinging-Strike%	First-Pitch Strike%
14	22	9	34	11	85	11	60

ANGELS

PLAYER	TBF	K-BB%	K%	BB%	FB%	HR/FB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	F-Strike%
Jose Alvarez	283	13	21	8	30	9	87	11	69
Joe Smith	271	14	21	7	25	9	88	8	63
Al Alburquerque	271	9	21	12	28	8	86	11	57
Fernando Salas	269	23	28	5	43	11	82	13	66
Huston Street	255	15	22	8	45	9	82	13	56
Cam Bedrosian	156	10	22	12	34	9	90	7	56
Mike Morin	151	21	27	6	43	7	77	16	64
Rob Rasmussen	79	11	22	10	36	11	88	10	57
Cory Rasmus	76	17	32	15	54	10	70	14	53
Deolis Guerra	74	19	23	4	35	28	88	10	53

I did a blind study on Twitter using these numbers asking people to pick the pitcher

These were the league totals for relief pitchers in 2015 for the statistics below:

K-BB%	K%	BB%	FB%	HR/FB%	Z-Contact%	Swinging-Strike%	First-Pitch Strike%
14	22	9	34	11	85	11	60

ANGELS

PLAYER	TBF	K-BB%	K%	BB%	FB%	HR/FB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	F-Strike%
Jose Alvarez	283	13	21	8	30	9	87	11	69
Joe Smith	271	14	21	7	25	9	88	8	63
Al Alburquerque	271	9	21	12	28	8	86	11	57
Fernando Salas	269	23	28	5	43	11	82	13	66
Huston Street	255	15	22	8	45	9	82	13	56
Cam Bedrosian	156	10	22	12	34	9	90	7	56
Mike Morin	151	21	27	6	43	7	77	16	64
Rob Rasmussen	79	11	22	10	36	11	88	10	57
Cory Rasmus	76	17	32	15	54	10	70	14	53
Deolis Guerra	74	19	23	4	35	28	88	10	53

I did a blind study on Twitter using these numbers asking people to pick the pitcher they would want based only on numbers and the votes were overwhelmingly for Mike Morin, he of the 6.53 ERA last season. Morin struggled early last year, giving up 19 earned runs in 23 innings around an abdominal injury before he was sent down until rosters expanded. He came back in September to strike out 18 batters and walk two in 12 innings while holding batters to a .217 average. Salas was definitely the safer backup of the two last season, though he struggled to keep the ball in the yard as he allowed eight homers in 63 innings, which helped create his 4.24 ERA and low 65-percent LOB rate. The safe bet is Salas, but the best return on investment opportunity lies with Morin.

ASTROS

PLAYER	TBF	K-BB%	K%	BB%	FB%	HR/FB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	F-Strike%
Ken Giles	298	21	29	8	33	3	81	15	60
Will Harris	276	17	25	8	30	15	90	8	60
Luke Gregerson	239	21	25	4	23	13	86	15	67
Pat Neshek	223	18	23	5	46	11	89	10	69
Tony Sipp	216	22	29	7	44	9	82	14	65
Josh Fields	209	23	32	9	48	4	82	13	61

Not that any of us expect Giles to lose the job in-season, but if he did, there are enough qualified candidates to step up in his place. Gregerson did the job last season, but obviously not well enough to retain it for 2016. Josh Fields flashes some of the skills necessary to sneak into saves if he could just display a little more command to go with that lively arm.

ATHLETICS

PLAYER	TBF	K-BB%	K%	BB%	FB%	HR/FB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	F-Strike%
Liam Hendriks	261	23	27	4	31	6	85	11	69
John Axford	250	12	25	13	27	10	84	10	52
Ryan Madson	248	18	23	6	32	9	80	13	67
Fernando Rodriguez	242	17	27	10	43	6	81	13	60
Marc Rzepczynski	158	17	26	9	12	25	85	14	61
R.J. Alvarez	100	10	23	13	54	21	84	12	57
Ryan Dull	66	15	24	9	46	20	86	11	50
Sean Doolittle	57	18	26	9	49	6	82	10	65
Felix Doubront	55	11	13	2	34	6	81	11	53

Given that Oakland signed Madson to a multi-year and large (for them) deal, the job is very likely his. Should he falter, Doolittle has done the job in the past, and even his numbers last year in a shortened season hold up well. Hendriks was a shrewd pickup for Oakland and is a sleeper candidate to have some good value (think Tyler Clippard in his Nationals days) in this bullpen as he looks much better in relief than he did as a starter.

BLUE JAYS

PLAYER	TBF	K-BB%	K%	BB%	FB%	HR/FB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	F-Strike%
Roberto Osuna	271	22	28	6	46	9	77	15	63
Drew Storen	228	22	29	7	38	8	83	12	62
Brett Cecil	214	27	33	6	29	11	83	15	60
Aaron Loup	186	21	25	4	23	21	87	10	66
Bo Schultz	173	10	18	8	34	16	86	11	62
Steve Delabar	129	12	23	11	42	14	82	13	65
Ryan Tepera	128	13	17	5	38	22	88	10	64
Pat Venditte	119	9	19	10	51	7	91	9	62
Arnold Leon	115	9	17	8	34	10	87	9	53
Aaron Sanchez	99	12	19	7	18	8	91	7	54

Osuna did the job last season, but the Jays have even more options heading into 2016. Storen has done the job elsewhere and has the skills to do it again in Toronto as does Cecil, who has done it in Toronto. The Jays could go multiple routes here and Cecil may be the most profitable play. Cecil got off to a rough start last year with shoulder woes during Spring Training and a rough Fathers' Day weekend say his ERA balloon to 5.96 with a 1-4 record and 5 blown saves. The 8 earned runs he allowed that week were the last ones he allowed all season as he closed the 2015 regular season without allowing an earned run in his final 31.2 innings while allowing 17 hits, 4 walks, and striking out 44. Don't write off the lefty just yet.

INDIANS

PLAYER	TBF	K-BB%	K%	BB%	FB%	HR/FB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	F-Strike%
Cody Allen	286	26	35	9	41	3	84	13	60
Zach McAllister	274	21	29	8	36	10	83	10	58
Bryan Shaw	265	13	20	7	31	14	83	11	62
Dan Otero	204	11	14	3	28	15	93	7	73
Austin Adams	149	7	15	9	36	5	86	12	71
Jeff Manship	144	16	23	7	28	4	87	11	62
Kyle Crockett	74	11	20	10	22	9	89	7	66

Allen is the cream of the crop in the Cleveland bullpen, and there frankly isn't a clear-cut backup statistically if he were to go down. McAllister's stuff plays up in the pen, but the best plan would be for Allen to hold the job all season because the other options are a big step down from the work Allen put up last season.

MARINERS

PLAYER	TBF	K-BB%	K%	BB%	FB%	HR/FB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	F-Strike%
Justin De Fratus	362	10	19	9	36	10	86	10	55
Joaquin Benoit	254	16	25	9	36	12	80	17	54
Steve Cishek	243	9	20	11	32	8	87	9	65
Evan Scribner	238	25	27	2	38	23	77	13	71
Vidal Nuno	151	20	26	6	44	7	87	12	69
Mayckol Guaipe	121	7	18	11	30	21	88	11	66
David Rollins	118	11	18	7	31	12	83	11	59
Cody Martin	106	16	24	8	44	16	87	8	58
Charlie Furbush	82	15	21	6	36	10	87	10	62
Tony Zych	65	26	31	5	39	7	80	14	75
Ryan Cook	54	-2	11	13	32	31	94	7	50

Seattle traded for Cishek and anointed him the closer, so he has that going for him. That said, Benoit is an older but reliable insurance policy who has the skills to do the job as well. If Scribner could somehow overcome the recent big-fly woes, the other numbers are rather strong, but no manager is going to hand the ball over to a reliever in the ninth inning who is that charitable with home runs.

ORIOLES

PLAYER	TBF	K-BB%	K%	BB%	FB%	HR/FB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	F-Strike%
Brad Brach	324	16	28	12	36	10	80	14	58
Darren O'Day	257	27	32	6	45	7	79	15	66
Zach Britton	253	26	31	6	10	20	86	16	64
Brian Matusz	206	18	27	10	45	9	80	13	61
T.J. McFarland	188	4	14	10	17	17	90	7	61
Chaz Roe	177	12	22	10	28	12	86	9	62
Jason Garcia	132	4	17	13	35	9	86	9	55
Mychal Givens	117	27	33	5	31	5	79	12	63
Vance Worley	115	14	19	5	37	10	93	6	62
Oliver Drake	72	11	24	13	37	6	84	13	57
CJ Riefenhauser	62	0	11	11	49	13	88	9	73
Kevin Gausman	52	15	25	10	50	12	95	11	50

Britton has the job locked up solid, but Baltimore paid a hefty price to keep O'Day around as the bridge to get the ball to him as well as Britton's insurance policy. Those guys will get rostered on draft day, but don't sleep on Givens. Those skills line up rather well with the more well-known relievers in the pen and are a big step forward from his wilder days in 2013 and 2014 in the system. Between Double-A and the majors last season, Givens struck out 117 batters and walked 22 in 87.1 innings.

RANGERS

PLAYER	TBF	K-BB%	K%	BB%	FB%	HR/FB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	F-Strike%
Sam Dyson	309	16	23	7	14	13	87	12	60
Shawn Tolleson	298	20	26	6	37	12	82	10	66
Tom Wilhelmsen	267	12	23	11	37	5	84	11	53
Jake Diekman	260	15	27	12	28	11	85	12	59
Keone Kela	243	21	28	7	29	9	88	14	58
Tanner Scheppers	176	5	18	13	40	13	91	8	55
Sam Freeman	171	9	23	15	30	13	89	10	50
Alex Claudio	66	11	20	9	33	27	82	11	65

Tolleson's numbers hold up rather well, which is why it is surprising the Rangers were rumored to be shopping for a closer a few times during the offseason. If he were to falter in the role, there is no clear-cut favorite to step in as the other candidates all have flaws. Kela would be the safest speculation of the bunch.

RAYS

PLAYER	TBF	K-BB%	K%	BB%	FB%	HR/FB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	F-Strike%
Brad Boxberger	271	16	27	12	43	13	79	12	56
Steve Geltz	254	13	23	10	52	9	86	10	61
Danny Farquhar	219	14	22	8	40	15	84	10	59
Xavier Cedeno	189	18	25	7	26	13	82	14	54
Alex Colome	163	23	27	4	36	0	83	15	59
Enny Romero	140	13	22	9	32	3	81	11	51
Matt Andriese	133	13	20	7	33	13	91	8	61
Andrew Bellatti	95	8	19	11	44	14	82	12	61
Erasmo Ramirez	50	14	20	6	20	14	77	14	64

The recent trade of Jake McGee leaves a rather large hole in this bullpen and makes it very inexperienced. The team is counting on a bounce-back year from Farquhar, but Colome is the guy to watch. His overall 2015 numbers are clouded by a lot of bad innings as a starter, but he looked much better working out of the pen where his stuff played up. There isn't anything in the minors coming up to help, but the Rays may also not be done with their roster as they're heavy in the outfield and could move someone like Brandon Guyer or Desmond Jennings to get some more help in the pen.

RED SOX

PLAYER	TBF	K-BB%	K%	BB%	FB%	HR/FB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	F-Strike%
Carson Smith	284	25	32	8	18	7	87	13	59
Robbie Ross	259	13	21	8	26	15	87	9	61
Junichi Tazawa	247	17	23	5	40	7	84	12	64
Craig Kimbrel	239	27	36	9	34	14	75	16	61
Tom Layne	207	9	22	13	23	10	89	9	54
Koji Uehara	160	24	29	6	56	5	73	19	73
Matt Barnes	150	13	20	7	41	16	87	11	59
Heath Hembree	106	6	14	9	48	13	86	9	63
Steven Wright	89	2	14	11	37	12	81	8	54
Noe Ramirez	61	10	21	12	41	19	87	13	66

It would be rather surprising to see Kimbrel slip up as the closer with his stellar track record, but if he were to, Boston has other options. They could always go back to Uehara who has served them well in recent years or they could go to their new toy in Smith who dominated for Seattle in 2015 and gives Boston a diverse yet dominant 7-8-9 trio late in games.

ROYALS

PLAYER	TBF	K-BB%	K%	BB%	FB%	HR/FB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	F-Strike%
Kelvin Herrera	286	13	22	9	33	8	81	13	61
Joakim Soria	272	17	24	7	35	13	86	10	61
Wade Davis	251	23	31	8	41	5	83	12	61
Luke Hochevar	214	15	23	8	46	10	88	10	64
Chris Young	95	7	18	11	70	6	83	11	56
Kris Medlen	55	16	26	9	35	8	90	8	66

It would be an exercise in futility to look at other options for saves in Kansas City outside of Davis because he's clearly so much better than everyone else in the pen and most of the major leagues. Should something happen to Davis, Soria and Herrera are options with different results. Herrera misses more bats but doesn't have the same command while Soria has better command but also is more hittable. There is no reason to roster either as speculation.

TIGERS

PLAYER	TBF	K-BB%	K%	BB%	FB%	HR/FB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	F-Strike%
Blaine Hardy	265	13	21	8	37	3	83	11	68
Alex Wilson	264	10	14	4	34	7	93	7	62
Justin Wilson	244	19	27	8	29	7	81	12	60
Francisco Rodriguez	216	24	29	5	30	14	86	14	63
Mark Lowe	215	23	28	6	32	9	80	14	67
Bruce Rondon	145	12	25	13	34	10	89	12	54
Kyle Ryan	112	5	13	8	28	4	90	8	59
Drew VerHagen	106	-1	12	13	9	14	93	6	58
Angel Nesbitt	98	6	14	8	31	10	87	9	52
Buck Farmer	73	3	14	11	40	14	88	7	63
Jeff Ferrell	50	4	12	8	40	19	86	9	58

K-Rod has this job in spades, but the next option wouldn't be as clear-cut as it may seem. Lowe certainly had the skills in 2015 to get a crack at the closer role, but that straight fastball hasn't done very well in high-leverage situations in the past. Justin Wilson's stuff looks more like a closer by the eye test and the numbers, even if he is a lefty.

TWINS

PLAYER	TBF	K-BB%	K%	BB%	FB%	HR/FB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	F-Strike%
Kevin Jepsen	285	11	21	10	35	7	85	10	58
J.R. Graham	267	11	19	8	31	15	84	11	57
Casey Fien	257	13	16	3	43	7	87	9	68
Glen Perkins	238	19	23	4	45	12	87	11	64
Trevor May	132	22	28	6	39	9	80	14	71
Ryan Pressly	119	8	19	10	33	0	93	9	59
Michael Tonkin	99	10	19	9	31	18	93	7	66
Ryan O'Rourke	97	9	25	16	46	12	81	13	56

Perkins gets the job as the incumbent, but hello Trevor May. May's skills jump off the page, and he certainly looks closer-worthy with those numbers, but his ratios have been hit hard by a career .351 BABIP and a 68-percent LOB rate. Keep an eye on him as the speculative bid for Perkins insurance over the wily vet Jepsen.

WHITE SOX

PLAYER	TBF	K-BB%	K%	BB%	FB%	HR/FB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	F-Strike%
Zach Duke	255	13	26	13	25	24	86	11	55
David Robertson	250	29	34	5	34	14	82	14	68
Dan Jennings	244	9	19	10	19	9	91	9	57
Jake Petricka	220	7	15	8	17	7	87	9	65
Zach Putnam	212	19	30	11	35	18	83	17	58
Scott Carroll	162	9	17	8	25	7	89	9	64
Tommy Kahnle	155	7	25	18	21	17	77	14	51
Daniel Webb	150	0	15	15	28	10	91	11	57
Matt Albers	149	13	19	6	28	10	92	7	59
Nate Jones	72	29	38	8	41	33	81	15	60

Robertson's skills are indeed strong for the closer role except for the HR/FB rate, which is not helped by the friendliness of U.S. Cellular Field. There were times in the last six months where Robertson's name was included in trade rumors. If that were to happen, Nate Jones is the best bet as the insurance policy as he is now fully recovered from his Tommy John surgery. The numbers in limited time once he came back were quite strong, and Chicago just gave him a new deal to keep him around.

YANKEES

PLAYER	TBF	K-BB%	K%	BB%	FB%	HR/FB%	Z-Contact%	SwStr%	F-Strike%
Dellin Betances	332	27	40	12	32	12	79	15	59
Aroldis Chapman	278	30	42	12	41	6	66	19	56
Chasen Shreve	251	12	26	13	41	16	88	11	53
Andrew Miller	246	33	41	8	33	13	76	18	66
Branden Pinder	122	9	21	12	37	13	84	11	58
Bryan Mitchell	114	7	19	12	24	17	90	8	59
Kirby Yates	92	15	23	8	52	30	84	10	65
Nick Rumbelow	68	15	22	7	38	11	81	9	52
Tyler Olson	65	-3	12	15	35	13	86	7	68

We don't exactly know who will be the closer, but Betances, Chapman and Miller are going to go for $5 or more in AL-Only auctions on draft day because of their overall production. That trio is going to dominate a lot of late innings, and all are head and shoulders above other options in this bullpen.