We're counting down the regular season now. Only one week left to go after this one. Some big time changes and movements will be made.
The slate is absolutely disgustingly loaded for Week 13. Let's lock in.
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Auburn Tigers (+114) at Mississippi State Bulldogs (-145) | Total: 11 (at DraftKings)
Every week I go on a local radio show in Louisiana. This week, when I went on, one of the questions I was asked pertained to this series. Personally, I felt the night to bet Mississippi State was Game 1 because the lockdown pitching of Tomas Valincius (a potential top-15 pick next summer). Of course, Tico absolutely shoved for 13 Ks over 6.2 IP allowing just a couple runs in a big 10-3 win.
But, given the question marks surrounding the rest of the rotation, Auburn felt like a great pick on Friday's bounce back. Auburn will be rolling with Andreas Alvarez and his 2.56 ERA. Outside of one subpar start at Florida a month ago, he's given his team a chance to win every single time he's taken the mound this year, which is why they've won nine of his 11 starts.
What's really jumped out about Alvarez in his breakout campaign is the ability to navigate lineups two and three times through the order. Going at least six innings in five of his last six turns, he's given Auburn length while also displaying an impressive 80 K: 18 BB ratio in 59.2 innings of work. Limiting base runners, while also being efficient is a huge plus for any starter, much less in the SEC.
Alvarez is seeing a Mississippi State team that's trying to solidify themselves as a top eight national seed for the postseason. From an offensive perspective, they've been a little hot and cold recently, but boast strong numbers this year. Hitting .313 with 89 bombs, the Dawgs got some big-time dudes like Ace Reese (.314 avg, 17 HR), Jacob Parkers (.342 avg, 11 HR), and Bryce Chance (.372 avg, .980 OPS) etc. When pitching against this offense, the key is to keep the ball inside the yard, something Alvarez has effectively accomplished (allowing 6 HR). After giving up three last week to A&M, I'd imagine that's a point of emphasis for him in this one.
Duke Stone is slated to get the rock for the Dawgs, sporting a 4.40 ERA and 78 K: 22 BB ratio across 57.1 frames. The thing with Stone is he can be effective one or two times through the order, but rarely gives his team the length, going six innings just once all season. Additionally, he's prone to blowup outings like he did against LSU two weeks ago (4.2 IP, 7 ER) and Tennessee a month ago (5.2 IP, 5 ER).
The interesting thing about Auburn's offense is almost every single starter is batting over .300. The depth and consistency of this lineup is why they're so dangerous in addition to having three players in double figure dingers. They don't need to rely on one guy for the big hit because they have nearly nine of them that can do it.
With the way Auburn has played, I doubt this series is decided in less than three games. We've seen some steam on Auburn from the opening line of +130. That's where the smart money is in this one.
