College Baseball Picks for 2026 Opening Day
We are SO BACK!
I would put College Baseball Opening Day up there with July 4th, my birthday, St. Patrick's Day, and Christmas as one of the single best days of the year. We've waited so long for this moment, and now that it's finally here, I don't know what to do with myself. But I have a good place to start.
If you don't remember from last year, the totals and run lines are usually very slow to make their way onto sportsbooks. The breakdowns are done before they come out most of the time, but we lucked out with all of the lines available for Opening Day.
Most of the season I will be giving out just one play, but because of this joyous day, you get a double-dip. LET'S GO!!!
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos (+140) @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles (-180) | Total: 10
I didn't touch on either team in the preseason articles, but you'll be hearing about them throughout the year. If you followed me last season, you should be familiar with some of the star power.
2025 was a down season for the UCSB Gauchos, missing the NCAA tournament. They lost their ace Tyler Bremner after he was drafted second overall to the Angels. But if you paid attention to them last season, you know they have a superstar ready to take his place in 2026. Jackson Flora was a guy I couldn't get enough of last season, and now that it's his draft year, it'll be even more amped up this time around. Projected to be a top pitcher off the board this summer, Flora has all the makings of an MLB ace. He's 6'5" with an electric arsenal headlined by a heater that hit 102 MPH last February. While that leaves opposing hitters uneasy, they really have a great time trying to hit his 80 MPH sweeper, along with the 88 MPH gyro slider. When he's locked in, he's virtually impossible to hit.
After a 2025 campaign that saw him punch out 86 hitters (17 BB) in 75 IP, the sky is the limit in 2026. In his debut, he'll face a USM offense that was pretty good a year ago, hitting 106 homers and batting .301. While the lineup is no slouch, it's notable their best player in Nick Monistere (21 HR, .323 avg) is gone, along with Carson Paetow (16 HR). Still, they retained Matthew Russo and his 18 bops, as well as Tucker Stockman (.332 avg, 6 homers) and Joey Urban (.333 avg, 9 HR). The Golden Eagles offense is definitely capable of scoring, though they likely won't face a pitcher of Flora's caliber all season.
Offensively, the Gauchos may be hard pressed to find some production throughout the year after losing their best hitter in LeTrey McCollum (.371 avg, 6 HR). Luckily, they do return a few of their top hitters in Rowan Kelly (.355 avg), Jonathan Mendez (.314 avg, 14 HR), and Nate Vargas (.306 avg, 10 HR). UCSB will see converted closer, Colby Allen, who was a menace in the bullpen last year. Allen racked up a 77 K/17 BB ratio in 67 IP, while recording a 3.63 ERA and 12 saves.
Allen did have a few extended outings in 2025,notching four innings four times. And given it's the first game of the year, especially with most key arms not going much further than five innings, it's up in the air with his duration. Still, USM always offers a good staff, so even after losing ace JB Middleton, they probably won't be in bad shape.
Overall, the roster is better for Southern Miss and given the homefield advantage I understand why they are favored. However, giving a Jackson Flora led team +140 is way too big. We may not get this chance again. I like UCSB on the upset here in a lower scoring affair. Tune into this one so you understand what I'm talking about and why there's so much hype.
The Pick: UCSB ML (+140 DraftKings)
Vanderbilt Commodores (-154) vs. TCU Horned Frogs (+120) | Total: 10
Three years ago in the exact same tournament the Vandy Boys took on TCU in the opening game of 2023. Aside from this great matchup in particular, we get our usual amazing tournaments at Globe Life Field for the Shriners Children Classic. This year's features Vandy, TCU, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Arkansas. Pure magic.
This contest features two teams I firmly expect to see again in the NCAA Tournament, possibly facing off again. The great thing about this one is the electric pitching duel we should see.
For Vandy, they lost a few key starters last year, but they return their now-promoted ace in Connor Fennell. Between starting and relieving, Fennell debuted his capabilities last season to the tune of a 2.53 ERA in 52.1 IP to go along with a stellar 84 K/11 BB ratio across seven starts (17 appearances). I actually witnessed his first start live against Texas A&M last March, so I've seen what he can do up close. This is definitely a name to circle for this summer's draft.
Despite topping out at 91 MPH, his funky arm slot and mix of strong secondaries (change-up, slider) give opposing hitters fits. The one bugaboo is the long ball with nine allowed a season ago. Fennell will see a TCU lineup that has three potential first-rounders, headlined by potential top-10 pick Sawyer Strosnider. Strosnider put in work as a freshman (.350 avg, 11 HR, 1.070 OPS). Additionally, Chase Brunson (12 HR, .317 avg), and Noah Franco (.313 avg, 11 HR) anchor the offense with several other contributors mixed in. Besides the long ball, it's seemingly balanced lineup that has the ability to score in bunches. For what it's worth, Globe Life Field is a large park, but TCU still has a few guys that can visit tater town.
On the Frogs side, they're trotting out an ace of their own in Big 12 Pitcher of the Year candidate, Tommy LaPour. LaPour was sensational in 2025, pitching to a 3.09 ERA and 88 K/27 BB ratio in 90.1 IP. TLP sits 95-98 and occasionally reaches 101 with heavy sink. He's got a dangerous slider that can be great - when he commands it for strikes - along with a solid change piece to complement the arsenal. LaPour, a sneaky '26 first-round candidate, has the ability to dominate a lot of opposing lineups when he's locked in. That's a tough test for a challenged Vandy offense to kick off the season.
There's potential in this Vandy Boys offense, but it needs to be proven. The productive returnees are only Brodie Johnston (15 HR) and Braden Holcomb (.275 avg, 9 HR). That's why Tim Corbin hopes some of his new transfers like Logan Johnstone (.337 avg, 9 HR), Carter Johnstone (.344 avg, 7 HR), and Mack Whitcomb (.360 avg, 15 HR) can fill the void. Long term, I think the Vandy offense will be fine, especially as the season progresses. But for the first game - against a pitcher of this caliber - I'm not banking on it.
On a neutral field, I think the wrong team is favored here. That makes +120 for TCU a little too enticing. I'm not sleeping on Vandy, which is why this could ultimately be the biggest sucker bet of opening day, but I'm still rolling with the more talented pitcher and team at a plus money banger.
The Pick: TCU ML (+120 DraftKings)
Don't forget to follow me all season long on my Breaking Bet podcast and discord for picks and breakdowns.
