Closer Encounters: Relief Market Primer

My apologies to those who have been missing this column over the past few weeks. The majority of my household came down with COVID and we're still feeling the after effects of fatigue and congestion. Fortunately, we're all on the upswing and I'm finally getting some of my energy back. For a while there, I couldn't even muster the strength to get off the couch and open my laptop.

As you can imagine, I've had a lot of catching up to do. Over the past two days, I've been busy updating our Closer Grid for all 30 teams. This includes fresh team blurbs, updated bullpen hierarchies and alignment with our depth charts.

With the MLB trade deadline rapidly approaching on August 2, now is the perfect time to review which teams are in need of bullpen help, look at which relievers might be on the move and speculate on potential landing spots. This article coincides with my updated closer in waiting rankings, which I'll be adjusting all throughout this week leading up to next Tuesday's deadline.

So what teams are most likely to acquire bullpen help over this next week?

Teams in Need of Relief Help

Yankees - Clay Holmes has been outstanding for the Yankees since New York acquired him via trade with the Pirates last summer. Since joining the team, he has a 1.39 ERA and 0.83 WHIP across 71 innings with 81 strikeouts against only 13 walks. He's only allowed two home runs in that span and has been the true anchor of a Yankees bullpen that currently ranks second in the league with a 2.94 ERA. His performance as the Yankees' closer when Aroldis Chapman missed over a month of action due to an Achilles injury is a big reason why New York has maintained the best record in baseball.

However, it's clear Chapman's best days are behind him, and the Yankees just lost a critical bullpen arm in versatile swingman Michael King (elbow) for the season after previously losing Chad Green (Tommy John surgery) back in May. Last year's breakout reliever Jonathan Loaisiga has not performed to expectations, and the team is counting on too many inexperienced pitchers to log important innings. Clarke Schmidt, Ron Marinaccio and Albert Abreu have performed well enough, but do the Yankees want to have to rely on them in the playoffs? Miguel Castro (shoulder) is out until mid-August at the earliest, and the team probably doesn't want to overwork southpaws Wily Peralta and Lucas Luetge, both of whom have performed well this season.

While the Yankees have been linked to starting pitching help, I think there's a clear need in the bullpen, especially after losing King for the remainder of this season.

Phillies - Philadelphia is 10 games back in the NL East, but only a half-game out of an NL Wild Card spot at the time of writing. I suppose they could be buyers or sellers at the deadline depending on what happens the remainder of this week at Pittsburgh, but Philadelphia sports the second-longest MLB postseason drought, last making the playoffs back in 2011. There is an urgency for President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski and company to compete right now, as evidenced by their managerial change a few months ago.

Aside from potentially acquiring rotation depth and a center fielder, the Phillies would be wise to upgrade their bullpen. This has been one of the team's biggest weaknesses for years, as the team's bullpen ERA perennially ranks in the bottom half of the league. Surprisingly, they're currently ranked 13th in this category through late-July, but Phillies relievers issue far too many baserunners, as their 1.34 WHIP is tied for eighth-worst in the league. There is also uncertainty in the ninth inning with Seranthony Dominguez, Brad Hand and Corey Knebel sharing the closer role right now.

Twins - Minnesota's bullpen is a nice blend of veteran talent (Emilio Pagan, Tyler Duffey, Joe Smith) and young pitchers with upside (Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, Jovani Moran and Jorge Alcala). Surprisingly, it has been the youngsters that have carried this bullpen so far. Duran has been electric, Jax has been reliable in a flexible role and Moran has showcased his strikeout upside in his limited exposure to big-league hitting thus far. That's all well and good, but the Twins are legitimate contenders in the American League and the trio's inexperience in the postseason could force the team to add depth. In fact, Dan Hayes of The Athletic suggests the Twins could use two relievers. A veteran or two like Daniel Bard, Dylan Floro or Steve Cishek would make a lot of sense for Minnesota.

Dodgers - This should come as no surprise as Daniel Hudson (knee) is out for the season, while Blake Treinen (shoulder), Tommy Kahnle (forearm), Jimmy Nelson (elbow) and Victor Gonzalez (elbow) aren't expected to return anytime soon. Brusdar Graterol also recently hit the IL with shoulder inflammation, but his MRI came back clean and he's expected to return in the coming week or two. Among the healthy relievers, Evan Phillips and Yency Almonte have been surprising contributors this season, but Craig Kimbrel, Alex Vesia and Phil Bickford have been inconsistent, while David Price has a 1.50 WHIP. It's pretty safe to assume the Dodgers will be pursuing bullpen upgrades prior to Tuesday's deadline.

Mets - The Mets only have one left-handed relief pitcher in Joely Rodriguez, who has allowed five runs (four earned) in two appearances covering a third of an inning since the All-Star break. Tanner Scott, Taylor Clarke, Matt Strahm and Matt Moore are a few southpaws that could be available this coming week.

Blue Jays - Toronto's greatest need may be in the starting rotation since Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi have underwhelmed while Hyun Jin Ryu (elbow) is out for the season. However, Toronto's bullpen ranks in the bottom half of the league by ERA. Their 4.01 ERA is worst among all 12 teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Jordan Romano has been a reliable closer, while Adam Cimber, David Phelps and Trevor Richards have been workhorses. Yimi Garcia leads Toronto with 14 holds and Tim Mayza is an underrated left-hander, but the Jays could use a bullpen upgrade.

Rays - We know the Rays will be active at the deadline. Last year, they traded Diego Castillo for JT Chargois and also acquired Shawn Armstrong from Baltimore. Who knows what they'll do this year to upgrade the 2022 unit? Your guess is as good as mine, but whomever they acquire would likely join Kevin Cash's expansive closer committee.

Guardians - Henry Palattella of MLB.com labels Cleveland as a deadline sleeper with the prospect capital to compete in any trade. Palattella further proposes a potential trade with the Pirates that would land the Guardians Bryan Reynolds and David Bednar. Cleveland's bullpen depth behind Emmanuel Clase was a question mark heading into 2022, but Eli Morgan, Trevor Stephan and Enyel De Los Santos have been surprising contributors through late July. Last year's co-closer, James Karinchak, was recently recalled and has flashed dominant form in recent appearances:

Despite these encouraging results, Karinchak is a true wild card for a team that is just 2.5 games back of Minnesota for the AL Central division lead and 2.5 games back of an AL Wild Card spot. Chris Antonetti and Mike Chernoff tend to make trades that set the team up for future success, so a deal for a reliever with years of team control remaining, like Bednar, makes sense.

Relievers on the Move?

David Robertson, Cubs - I previously covered Robertson as the most obvious relief pitcher to be traded due to his upcoming free agency next year. He's also a perfect fit for what most contending teams will be looking for as a veteran with extensive playoff experience and a World Series ring. A reunion with the Yankees would make sense, but it sounds like the Mets are interested in Robertson as well.

Prediction: A year after sending Anthony Rizzo to the Bronx, the Cubs trade Robertson and Ian Happ to the Yankees for Austin Wells, Estevan Florial and Joey Gallo. This would allow the Yankees to be more flexible with Holmes' usage given Robertson's experience in the ninth inning. Meanwhile, Scott Effross and Rowan Wick would stand to see more save chances over the final two months for the Cubs.

Author's Note: I'm no prospect expert, so please don't put too much stock in the potential return package. Try to pay more attention to the potential landing spot and subsequent impact to relief roles.

Daniel Bard & Carlos Estevez, Rockies - Both pitchers are free agents after this season. Alex Colome is too, but I'm not sure teams will be knocking down Colorado's door for his 1.47 WHIP or 16 percent strikeout rate. Bard will be coveted at the deadline after securing a career-high 21 saves in 23 chances with excellent ratios for Colorado. A change of scenery would benefit Estevez, who has a career 3.66 ERA away from Coors Field but a 5.90 ERA at home.

Prediction: The Rockies trade Daniel Bard to the Twins for one of their 15th-to-20th ranked prospects. His fantasy value may decline in a scenario like this if he's not guaranteed to close. The Rockies trade Carlos Estevez to the Guardians for a low-level prospect. The Guardians then sign Estevez to a one or two year extension. If these trades come to fruition, Lucas Gilbreath, Jake Bird or Justin Lawrence could see save chances over the final two months of the season, or the Rockies could simply slot Colome into the closer role if they can't find a suitor for him.

David Bednar & Chris Stratton, Pirates - Would Pittsburgh really trade their star closer, who won't even be eligible for arbitration until 2024? They'd have to be be blown away, but it's possible. No doubt big-market teams like the Yankees, Dodgers and Padres will be calling Ben Cherington to gauge Bednar's availability. Meanwhile, Stratton has another year of arbitration remaining before he becomes a free agent in 2024. The 31-year-old sports a 5.03 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and lowly 20 percent strikeout rate, but he's a former starter who can eat innings in a flexible, multi-inning role. Unfortunately, his value was never higher than it was last season. 

Prediction: The Pirates hold onto Bednar despite receiving several enticing offers for the 2022 All-Star. The Pennsylvania native stays home. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh sends Stratton to the Dodgers for a low-level prospect.

Joe Mantiply & Ian Kennedy, Diamondbacks - Mantiply is a 31-year-old journeyman who has finally found success at the big league level this season. The left-hander leads all qualified relievers with a 1.3 percent walk rate. His trade value may never be higher than it is right now, so Arizona might be wise to capitalize. Kennedy is a 37-year-old on a one-year deal, so moving him for literally anything is an obvious move for the D'Backs. He has struggled to a 1.40 WHIP this season, so his individual return might not be exciting, but including him in a potential package alongside Christian Walker might make sense.

Prediction: The Diamondbacks trade Joe Mantiply to the Mets for Dominic Smith and Khalil Lee. The Diamondbacks trade Ian Kennedy to the team he started his career with, the Yankees, for cash. Mark Melancon's security as Arizona's closer remains stable regardless of how he pitches over the remainder of the season.

Dylan Floro, Tanner Scott & Anthony Bass, Marlins - Floro, who makes $3 million this season, has one more year of arbitration remaining before he becomes a free agent in 2024. Scott has two more years of arbitration before he becomes a free agent in 2025, while Bass has a $3 million team option on his contract for 2023.

Prediction: The Marlins trade Dylan Floro to the Yankees for Luis Gil. Despite receiving interest in Tanner Scott from multiple clubs, the Marlins elect to hold onto him after just recently trading for him back in April. Miami trades Anthony Bass and Pablo Lopez to Toronto for Gabriel Moreno. In addition to Scott, Anthony Bender (back), Cole Sulser (lat) and Jeff Brigham would be closer candidates in Miami if they send away several relievers. I'll be speculating on Bender, who began a rehab assignment in mid-July and could rejoin the Marlins soon.

Jorge Lopez & Dillon Tate, Orioles - Lopez has two more years of arbitration, so Baltimore may look to capitalize on what could be a career season for the 29-year-old former starter. Tate has been rock solid in relief for the Orioles and could fill a middle-relief role for a contender.

Prediction: Lopez stays put as Baltimore continues to push for an AL Wild Card spot, but the Orioles trade from their surprising relief depth and send Dillon Tate to the Mets for J.D. Davis.

Scott Barlow & Taylor Clarke, Royals - It's unclear whether the Royals will trade either pitcher, who are under team control through 2024 and 2025, respectively. Both will be within their arbitration windows and are getting pricier, but the Royals may choose to keep both given they've been the anchors of their bullpen thus far. Clarke is in the midst of a career season, and as a left-hander, he may be highly coveted. 

Prediction: The Royals trade Barlow and Whit Merrifield to the Dodgers for Caleb Ferguson, Gavin Stone, Ryan Pepiot and Andy Pages. The Royals trade Clarke to the Phillies for Alec Bohm.

Editor's note: Benintendi has been traded to the Yankees between the time this article was written and published.

Matt Strahm, Red Sox - Boston might be the most polarizing team this week, as it's currently unclear as to whether they'll become buyers or sellers. They're currently in last place in the AL East at 49-49 but only 3.5 games out of the AL Wild Card. If they sell, trading Strahm, who is a free agent after this season, is an obvious move that may fly a bit under the radar given there are so few southpaws available on the market. Strahm is currently on the IL with a sore wrist, but the injury does not appear to be serious enough to detract any contenders from acquiring him.

Prediction: The Red Sox trade Strahm to the Astros for Niko Goodrum and Josh James.

Lou Trivino, Athletics - I covered Trivino and new slider about a month ago. It's an effective pitch that he started using more often to encouraging results, even if his surface stats don't show it. Trivino is arbitration-eligible for two more seasons and smart teams will look past his 6.68 ERA and focus more on his career-best strikeout and walk rates.

Prediction: The Athletics reunite Trivino with Bob Melvin and trade him to the Padres for a mid-level prospect.

Gregory Soto & Michael Fulmer, Tigers - Soto is under team control through the 2025 season, so it would probably take quite a haul to acquire him. Fulmer is a free agent after this season and may be one of the first dominos to fall on the relief market. Andrew Chafin, Alex Lange and Joe Jimenez may garner some interest as well, so relief roles in Detroit may change over the next few weeks.

Prediction: The Tigers don't get a trade package they like enough to deal Soto, but they trade Fulmer to the Phillies for Jeurys Familia and a low-level prospect.

Steve Cishek, Nationals - Washington has the worst winning percentage in the majors and has no reason to hold onto Cishek, who signed a one-year deal with the Nationals in March. He's a veteran who would benefit a playoff contender in the sixth or seventh innings. Cishek is currently in top form, as he's only allowed one earned run over his last 12 appearances. He has an impressive 0.50 WHIP and 15:0 K:BB over 12 innings during that span.

Prediction: The Nationals trade Steve Cishek to the Twins for Cody Stashak. Washington trades an expiring asset for someone who can contribute to their bullpen in future seasons. This opens the door for Kyle Finnegan, Carl Edwards or Victor Arano to finish out the season as the Nationals' closer, though Finnegan and Edwards could also be trade candidates.

Matt Moore, Rangers - Moore, once one of the top prospects in baseball while in the Rays' farm system, is on an inexpensive deal through the end of this season.

Prediction: The Rangers trade Matt Moore to the Cardinals for a low-level prospect.