Closer Encounters: Kimbrel to the Dodgers

Big news Friday afternoon as the long-awaited and assumed Craig Kimbrel trade finally came to fruition. It's not an April Fool's Day joke either. The White Sox sent MLB's active saves leader (372) to the Dodgers for outfielder AJ Pollock. Out of all the potential landing spots for Kimbrel, Los Angeles was best for his fantasy value. The Dodgers tied with the Giants for the league lead with 56 saves last season and there should be plenty of save chances to go around again in 2022. Assuming Kimbrel performs to the Dodgers' expectations, I'd safely project him for 30 saves, with a ceiling of 40-plus. However, performing to expectations is the biggest concern surrounding the veteran closer.

In the first half of 2021 with the Cubs, Kimbrel was incredible. After he was traded to the White Sox and demoted to a setup role, his performance suffered greatly, as detailed in the table below:

Looking a bit further back to Kimbrel's output since 2019, 59 of his last 95.2 innings (62 percent) since 2019 have not been great, further illustrating the concern of degrading skills. He's also struggled this spring, serving up two walks and five runs (four earned) over two-thirds of an inning in his lone Cactus League outing on March 23 against the Rangers. Reportedly, his velocity topped out at 94 mph during the game, which Kimbrel said "was good for me" at that point of spring training. History shows us that to be effective, Kimbrel's fastball needs to be over 97 mph.

Despite his second-half struggles last season, there's still a lot to like to be excited about thanks to Kimbrel's Statcast page via Baseball Savant:

You'll notice via the graphic above that he was among the league leaders if whiff% thanks to his 59.3 percent whiff rate on his curveball that he throws 40 percent of the time. The pitch limited opposing hitters to a .111 batting average last season and he hasn't allowed a home run via the curve since 2019.

As for the rest of the Dodgers bullpen, the fantasy value for the closer-by-committee members that manager Dave Roberts previously hinted at suffers, notably Blake Treinen, Daniel Hudson and Brusdar Graterol. All should still pitch in and combine for 15 or so saves, with Treinen likely to receive the most opportunities out of the trio in his fireman role.

Those who have recently drafted Kimbrel at or after his NFBC Main Event ADP of 233.25 (through 16 drafts) may have just gotten a tremendous value. I anticipate he will now skyrocket up draft boards and be selected between picks 45-60 in this format — likely in the Emmanuel Clase, Edwin Diaz, Ryan Pressly and Kenley Jansen range of closers — given the favorable landing spot.

Velocity Concerns?

Speaking of closers with reduced velocities this spring, a few are worth monitoring over the next few days leading up to the start of the regular season April 7.

Liam Hendriks, RP, White Sox - Hendriks, who averaged a career-high 97.7 miles per hour on his fastball last season, has exhibited reduced velocity this spring. An early report noted he was throwing 94 miles per hour in his first spring game, and he did not show much of an improvement in a subsequent outing March 20 against Colorado. In that contest, he averaged 94.9 miles per hour on 22 fastballs thrown, a roughly a 2-mph drop from his average last season.

However, the same report noted Hendriks and pitching coach Ethan Katz weren't panicking. Hendriks himself indicated he threw a bullpen last year where he pitched 94, then pitched later that night and was 98. Keep in mind many pitchers, especially closers, aren't going all out and are simply ramping up for the long haul of the regular season. 

Ryan Pressly, RP, Astros - During a recent Grapefruit League outing against the Cardinals on March 28, Pressly's fastball averaged 92.6 miles per hour after averaging 95.4 (-2.8 mph) on the pitch last season.

However, it was an efficient and scoreless outing during which Pressly struck out one in his inning of work. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com interviewed the Astros closer after the outing and Pressly wasn't concerned about velocity:

Even still, I've been somewhat reluctant to draft Pressly without backing him up with Hector Neris later in the draft, if I'm able to do so based on the format I'm drafting in.

Sleepless in Seattle?

Mariners

Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reported Friday afternoon that Mariners reliever Ken Giles has been shut down from throwing due to a tendon issue in his finger. While it's unclear at this time how long he will be sidelined, it's certainly a tough blow for Giles, who missed the entirety of last season and was limited to 3.2 innings in 2020. Giles had been throwing 95 miles per hour in batting practice earlier this spring and struck out four while walking one over two spring innings. The Seattle bullpen has been reeling a bit on the injury front lately given this setback for Giles and the previous news that Casey Sadler is set to miss the 2022 season due to shoulder surgery.

Paul Sewald, who has been the consensus favorite among drafters for saves among Seattle relievers, has a 6.75 ERA with two home runs allowed in four spring innings. On the positive side, he's struck out eight while walking only one. Among the remaining options for saves, Diego Castillo has a 6.00 ERA over three spring innings, while Drew Steckenrider and Andres Munoz have yet to be scored upon this spring over six combined innings.

Let us know in the comments what you think about Kimbrel's new team, and whether you think Hendriks or Pressly's diminished spring velocity will give you any pause in clicking their names in the draft room. Who is your favorite Mariners pitcher to target for saves?