This article is part of our Offseason Deep Dives series.
The Orioles didn't do much last offseason to address what seemed like a glaring need in their rotation. They signed Kyle Gibson and traded for Cole Irvin, moves that indicated a plan to attack with quantity over quality.
What they were counting on/hoping for was Grayson Rodriguez becoming an instant-impact starter and Kyle Bradish taking a step forward. The former occurred, even though it took a little longer than expected. To say that the latter happened would be quite an understatement.
Bradish showed signs of turning the corner during the second half of the 2022 campaign. After collecting an ugly 7.38 ERA over 10 first-half starts, he posted a 3.28 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 65:28 K:BB over 71.1 innings covering 13 post-All-Star break outings.
The right-hander's 2023 season got off to an inauspicious start, as he was struck in the right foot by a comebacker in the second inning of his season debut. Bradish had to exit that outing and then required a short stint on the injured list. He spun six shutout frames in his first start back from the IL, but in the three subsequent outings Bradish was rocked for 13 runs over 12 innings of work.
It was at that point when Bradish took off.
From May 12 on, a stretch which covered 25 starts for the righty, Bradish put up a 2.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 150:35 K:BB over 149 innings. Only Blake Snell had a better ERA over that span, and no one had
The Orioles didn't do much last offseason to address what seemed like a glaring need in their rotation. They signed Kyle Gibson and traded for Cole Irvin, moves that indicated a plan to attack with quantity over quality.
What they were counting on/hoping for was Grayson Rodriguez becoming an instant-impact starter and Kyle Bradish taking a step forward. The former occurred, even though it took a little longer than expected. To say that the latter happened would be quite an understatement.
Bradish showed signs of turning the corner during the second half of the 2022 campaign. After collecting an ugly 7.38 ERA over 10 first-half starts, he posted a 3.28 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 65:28 K:BB over 71.1 innings covering 13 post-All-Star break outings.
The right-hander's 2023 season got off to an inauspicious start, as he was struck in the right foot by a comebacker in the second inning of his season debut. Bradish had to exit that outing and then required a short stint on the injured list. He spun six shutout frames in his first start back from the IL, but in the three subsequent outings Bradish was rocked for 13 runs over 12 innings of work.
It was at that point when Bradish took off.
From May 12 on, a stretch which covered 25 starts for the righty, Bradish put up a 2.42 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 150:35 K:BB over 149 innings. Only Blake Snell had a better ERA over that span, and no one had a better WHIP. Bradish ranked sixth among qualifiers with an fWAR of 3.8.
If you condense it down to the final two months of the season, Bradish was even better. The 27-year-old collected a 2.09 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 73:17 K:BB across 64.2 frames during his final 11 starts. Bradish's strikeout rate from August on rose to 29.6 percent, which was the sixth-best mark in baseball. He concluded his regular season on a 16-inning scoreless streak in which he permitted a mere five hits.
| Date | ERA | WHIP | IP | K% | BB% |
| Apr. 3-May 6 | 5.95 | 1.73 | 19.2 | 19.4 | 9.7 |
| May 12-July 26 | 2.67 | 1.01 | 84.1 | 23.3 | 5.4 |
| Aug. 1-Oct. 1 | 2.09 | 0.88 | 64.2 | 29.6 | 6.9 |
A dissection of Bradish's breakout has to start with his breaking balls. Simply put, the 27-year-old right-hander can spin it like few others in the game. Bradish's slider was his most-used pitch in 2023 at 31.2 percent and it earned a Run Value of 14, per Baseball Savant. That wasn't even his most effective pitch, though, as Bradish's curveball came in with a Run Value of 15. Only seven pitchers had two pitches with at least a plus-10 Run Value, and none of them had at least a plus-14 with two offerings. (Blake Snell did have a plus-22 with his curveball and a plus-13 with his changeup).
Only Clayton Kershaw (18) scored a higher Run Value with his slider and only Charlie Morton (25) and Blake Snell (22) scored a higher Run Value with their curveball. Among starters, Bradish's slider ranked 14th with an xwOBA of .264. His curveball ranked third with a .215 xwOBA, behind only Tyler Glasnow (.145) and Snell (.149).
Bradish's slider and curveball accounted for 48.6 percent of his repertoire in 2023. You can see below how absolutely devastating the two pitches were as a 1-2 breaking ball combo.
Bradish's breaking balls also graded out well in terms of Stuff+, via FanGraphs. It was the slider which came out on top there, with the pitch easily ranking tops in baseball among qualifiers. Both offerings ranked in the top five.
Also helping to spur Bradish's breakout, particularly in the final two months of the season, was the fact that the righty upped his sinker usage and dropped his four-seamer usage, particularly against right-handed batters.
Bradish's four-seamer wasn't a good pitch for him last season, producing an xwOBA of .427. The good news is he began to realize this, cutting its usage steadily as the year went along. In August, Bradish threw just 14 four-seamers to right-handed batters. In September, that number dropped to five. Meanwhile, the sinker had a much better xwOBA of .313 and its usage climbed up over 25 percent both in August and September. Bradish even threw his sinker (95 mph) a tick harder than his four-seamer (94.5 mph).
Not only was Bradish's sinker much better than his four-seamer in terms of results, it also represented a much better pitch to pair with his most-used offering, his slider. The two pitches head toward the batter on the same plane, but the slider broke an average of 12.5 inches away from righties, while the sinker broke an average of 11.1 inches in on righties. It's an incredibly difficult guessing game for opposing batters.
I'm not going to project a sub-3.00 ERA again for Bradish in 2024. He was pretty fortunate in that regard, as his xERA of 3.77 indicates. That said, I don't really envision anything that can trip him up next season. He has two legitimate plus pitches in his slider and curveball, as well as an emerging sinker. He keeps the ball in the strike zone (6.6 percent walk rate) and on the ground (49.2 percent). He pitches in what is now a pitcher-friendly home park in Camden Yards and he will have an excellent offense backing him. He'll have no workload restrictions after nearly reaching 180 innings in 2023. Bradish's ADP in NFBC drafts currently sits at 94, with a min pick of 70 and a max pick of 150. Considering he finished as the 47th overall player in terms of RotoWire's Earned Auction Values at $18.46, it's a cost that seems extremely reasonable.
