Baseball Draft Kit: Uncovering Value Plays in the SP Market

In 2019 we saw more more dominance from Jacob deGrom, the breakup of baseball's top 1-2 punch in Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander, and finally, the emergence of young starters such as Lucas Giolito, Shane Bieber and Jack Flaherty, all of whom look to be top-15 fantasy starters this year. In reading this website though, you're not looking for us to tell you who broke out last year, but more who will break out in 2020 and which players will outperform their March rankings. In this piece, I'll share what I do to put together my starting pitching list. I'll usually begin with RotoWire's rankings before putting my own spin on the list.

Here are five things I consider in setting my starting pitching draft board:

1 ADVANCED METRICS

Spin rate is an interesting metric, but I'm not entirely sold on its predictive value, though maybe I need to read up more on this one. Tyler Chatwood and Yimi Garcia ranked highly on the 2019 spin rate leaderboard, and I wouldn't touch either in fantasy. All else being equal, you're going to want to target pitchers who miss bats and avoid free passes. On occasion, however, perhaps due to factors outside their control (poor bullpen, bad luck on balls in play), some of those pitchers have high prior-year ERAs. FIP is a metric that incorporates strikeouts, walks and home runs while stripping out the semi-randomness of balls in play. Targeting pitchers with ERAs significantly higher than their FIP could uncover sleepers. Here are the top-10 largest positive ERA/FIP spreads from 2019:

In this space last year, I predicted a breakout for Jon Gray, who in 2018 posted a 5.02 ERA with a 4.08 FIP. Gray went on to record a similar FIP in 2019 (4.06), but his ERA dropped to 3.84. This season, a rebound campaign from Blake Snell seems obvious, but if Cal Quantrill is able to crack the San Diego rotation, he could surprise. Quantrill had a 0.93 ERA in his first five appearances of the second half last year, and though his 7.8 K/9 isn't special these days, he did average 94.5 mph with his fastball with good control.

On the flipside, a negative ERA-FIP indicates an element of luck and potential regression the following year. Here is that top-10:

This section last year told us to be wary of Blake Snell, Reynaldo Lopez and Aaron Nola. Sage advice in some cases. This year it looks as if we can expect regression from Clayton Kershaw and Dallas Keuchel. Kershaw should be solid again (at least until October), but the future HOFer saw his HR rate spike (who didn't) while his BB/9 exceeded 2.0 for the first time since 2012. Hudson appears likely to be overvalued, as despite last year's 16 wins and 3.35 ERA, his 7.0 K/9 and 4.4 BB/9 were rather ugly.

YOUTH AND UPSIDE OVER SAFETY

To win in fantasy, risks are required. Sure, it's nice to have "safe" pitchers along the lines of a Mike Leake, but those types aren't going to win you your league if you have too many of them. I want to take fliers on young pitchers with gaudy minor-league strikeout numbers. Last year I recommended Julio Urias, Josh James, Shane Bieber, Tyler Glasnow and Alex Reyes. A mixed bag, but the upside was worth it. This year, I'll be targeting these five young arms:

Griffin Canning, ANGELS
Canning wasn't overly impressive in his rookie year, starting strong, but finishing with a 5.43 ERA in his final 12 outings to wind up with a 4.58 mark. This year, if healthy, Canning should settle in as a solid No. 3 starter, and it certainly doesn't hurt to have Anthony Rendon fielding groundballs at third base.

Jose Urquidy, ASTROS
RH hitters batted .300 against him last year, but Urquidy appears to be a rotation lock for a team that should score a ton of runs. If he can come even close to his 2019 minor-league K:BB (134:21 in 103 innings), Urquidy should be at a minimum, a solid No. 3 starter.

Jesus Luzardo, ATHLETICS
A shoulder strain limited Luzardo to just 63.2 innings (playoffs included) last year, so workload is the big 2020 concern for this 22-year-old potential ace starter. We pegged Luzardo's innings at 122 this year, so that limits his value a bit, but when active, he could be good for a sub-3.00 ERA and upwards of 10.0 K/9.

Brendan McKay, RAYS
He'll have to earn a spot with a solid spring, but as of this writing, McKay projects as the team's No. 5 starter. McKay posted an elite 102:18 K:BB in 73.2 minor-league innings last season before struggling to a 5.14 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in the big leagues. The 2017 first-round pick's ceiling remains sky high nonetheless.

Dustin May, DODGERS
May isn't guaranteed anything at this point, but the talent is there. May put up a 3.63 ERA for the Dodgers last year, but with a 1.3 BB/9, his FIP landed at 2.89, so there's plenty of upside here for a guy who also averaged 96.1 mph with his fastball.

HOW GUYS FINISHED THE PREVIOUS YEAR 

Here we look at 2019 first half versus second half FIP to try and identify players that finished strong and could carry that "momentum" into 2020. Among the 44 pitchers with enough innings in both halves to qualify for the list, here are the top 10 hurlers, in terms of FIP, who improved the most over the second half:

This analysis last year led me to call Jakob Junis "intriguing" after he put up a 3.47 FIP in the second half of 2017. Junis went on to have an ugly 2019 (5.24 ERA, 1.43 WHIP), so choose wisely here. This year Reynaldo Lopez jumps out a bit to me as someone who could take a step forward along the lines of teammate Lucas Giolito. Lopez throws hard (95.5 average on his fastball), but with low spin rates and a propensity for the long ball (1.7 HR/9), he remains risky.

PITCHERS RETURNING FROM INJURY

These players come with different levels of risk, but that risk could drive their draft-day prices down to a point where they become nice buy lows. Just don't have too many of them on your roster at once.

Garrett Richards, PADRES
Richards managed just 8.2 innings last year in another injury-marred season, but he should be healthy and motivated by impending free agency. The 31-year-old has made just 31 starts over the past four seasons, but if he can somehow remain healthy, he's in a nice environment for a rebound campaign.

A.J. Puk, ATHLETICS
Puk will be two years removed from his Tommy John surgery in April 2020, though we probably should expect an innings cap. A top-10 draft pick in 2016, Puk boasts a 12.9 minor-league K/9, so the potential is sky high.

Michael Kopech, WHITE SOX
A boom or bust pick, Kopech flashed No. 1 starter stuff, but No. 5 starter control and command, before undergoing Tommy John surgery in September of 2018. If it all comes together though, look out. He likely will be limited to around 120 innings this year, but that could still net you 150-plus strikeouts.

Carlos Carrasco, INDIANS
If Carrasco can return close to 2018 form after dealing with leukemia, he'll be a fantasy steal. It's probably best to ignore last year's numbers and hope you can draft Carrasco in the 40 range among SPs, but get top-20 value in what we hope is a bounce-back 2020.

Johnny Cueto, GIANTS
Cueto returned in September with two solid and two ugly starts, but should be fully healthy after 2018 Tommy John surgery. It's tough to expect a huge rebound in 2020, but if Cueto can be a fraction of what he was in 2016, his fantasy owners will take it.

Brent Honeywell, RAYS
Honeywell has now missed two full years due to elbow issues, so even if he does return strong in 2020, it seems likely that a severe innings cap is in order. Still, I'll be watching for his name in box scores this spring, as he was once considered an elite pitching prospect.

FASTBALL VELOCITY

Velocity isn't directly correlated with success, but it's been shown to help, particularly related to missed bats. It seems as if everyone is throwing 95 mph these days, but identifying pitchers who have taken a step forward in velocity could be indicative of breakout/potential breakout. Here are all pitchers with at least 100 innings in each of 2018 and 2019 who showed year-over-year fastball velocity improvement of at least 1.0 mph:

CLEVINGER » A repeater in this section from last year's article, all signs continue to point up for Clevinger.

GRAY » If Gray ever gets out of Coors Field, his true talent may be that of a 3.30-3.50 ERA guy, perhaps on the lower end of the range.

DESCLAFANI » Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson seems to know what he's doing; Sonny Gray and Luis Castillo also showed improvement.

GIOLITO » A 5.21 ERA in his final three starts took Giolito's ERA from 3.20 to 3.41, but the breakout was real. A shortened delivery also likely contributed to improved control.

BOYD » The strikeout and walk rates are at or close to elite level, so if he can learn to work more in the bottom half of the zone, perhaps he can sustain a low-3.00s ERA, though it probably won't come on any of my teams.

This article appears in the 2020 RotoWire Fantasy Baseball Guide. You can order a copy here.