Prediction markets stand at the center of the pitch for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Play begins on Thursday. The 2026 FIFA World Cup is projected to draw more than $2.37 billion in trading volume across US prediction markets, according to a study by RotoWire. Analysts at DeFiRate, meanwhile, project Kalshi to generate $1.47 billion in trades on its own.
Polymarket's World Cup winner market has booked $1.595 billion in trades since it opened last year. But that includes trades made worldwide. Polymarket's platform offers 58 markets related to the World Cup. However, Polymarket U.S. remains elusive for most traders and is currently offered on a limited, Beta basis. Polymarket operates as the official prediction market of MLS, in addition to La Liga, and Serie A (in the U.S.).
Kalshi's World Cup Winner market handled $87.5 million in trades as of Friday. Kalshi offers 424 World Cup related markets, including some that do not consider play outcome.
A survey by the fraud-monitoring company SEON released this week found that half of those planning on betting on the World Cup in the U.S. will do so at a prediction market. Anyone 18 or over can legally trade on prediction markets in all 50 states.
Prediction Markets Remain Entangled In Legal, Legislative Battles
Nearly 20 states are engaged in litigation against prediction markets, are considering legislation to limit/ban them, or have passed legislation banning them outright. The Trump Administration, through the Commodities Futures Trading Commission that regulates prediction markets, has filed or joined lawsuits in six states siding with the platforms and against state regulators or attorneys general.
Sports betting remains illegal in California and Texas. Los Angeles, San Francisco, Houston, and Dallas all play host to World Cup matches. The first World Cup match at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California, has Team USA facing Paraguay on Friday. Multiple attempts to legalize legal sports betting in both states have fallen short since the Supreme Court allowed sports betting to go nationwide in 2018.
Those states continue to serve as fertile ground for prediction market operators. Texas and California generated 43% of Kalshi's U.S. sports trading volume in the first quarter, according to data from gambling industry research firm Eilers & Krejcik Gaming. Kalshi does not release any state-by-state data. Meanwhile, those states combine for just 22% of the nation's population.
Florida remains the largest state where one can bet sports legally (through the Hard Rock Bet app) and legally trade on all major prediction market sites.
Competition Spreads Throughout Prediction Market Space
Kalshi and Polymarket have plenty of competition from other "Designated Contract Markets" – the legal term for prediction markets. These platforms are regulated by the federal government via the CFTC. Prediction markets operate outside of state regulations and do not pay any state taxes on their profits.
In the United States, DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics and Underdog – among others – offer prediction markets (DCMs) using their own trading platforms or through partners such as CME Group.
The offerings and interface on these sites mirror those on their sister sports books. Those operators have all worked toward creating so-called "super apps," where all their offerings are on one app.
They change depending on where the customer is located. DraftKings, Fanatics, and FanDuel do not offer prediction markets in states where they are currently licensed to offer sports betting. Nor do they report their prediction volumes on a live-real time basis.
Depending on the site, fans can trade on game outcomes, futures, group qualifiers, stage of elimination, furthest stage, player props, player goals, country goal leader and first-goal scorers.
"With DraftKings Sports, we're able to reach fans nationwide throughout the World Cup, including states like California and Texas with prediction markets. As one of the biggest global events in sports we expect strong engagement across all platforms, including DraftKings Predictions which continues to gain momentum," DraftKings Director of Sports Operations Johnny Avello told RotoWire.com.
Just this week, Fanatics Markets joined forces with ADI Predictstreet, FIFA's official prediction market partner and launched an interactive World Cup Hub. Robinhood, meanwhile, is shifting away from its prediction markets partner Kalshi Inc. and using the World Cup to test its own infrastructure through Rothera, a US-based derivatives exchange. The shift may lower trading volumes on Kalshi.
How Prediction Market Trades Operate
Trading on a prediction market differs - at least in teams of how those trades are processed - than betting on a traditional sportsbook. When you wager on a sports book or sports betting app, you bet using fixed odds set by the operator. And you cannot cash the bet until the event is over - unless the book chooses to offer you a live payout.
In a prediction market, you buy or sell shares whose price can change at any time, based on what someone else is willing to pay to carry the opposite outcome. If France carries a 16% chance to win the World Cup and wins it, you would win $1 for each share purchased at 16 cents. However, you could also trade out of your position at any time. So if Les Bleus advance out of their group, you'll get a return on your shares, but not necessarily the full $1 payout. The same works in the other direction. An early group-play loss will see the value of your share plummet.
Prediction markets boast that they offer peer-to-peer trading. However, many use well capitalized "market makers" who are able to facilitate trades to keep the markets viable.
For a full breakdown of how to trade contracts on this event, check out our World Cup Prediction Markets page.
Volume Of World Cup Trading Presents New Challenge For Prediction Markets
Like sports books, prediction markets must monitor both traders and suspicious trading activity. The potential volume of both trades and traders presents a new challenge.
"The 2026 World Cup will be the biggest stress test prediction markets have ever faced. Projections put total US prediction market volume at $2.5 billion across 104 matches, roughly 10 to 15 times the volume we saw across all of March Madness," Asaf Meir, Co-Founder & CEO at Solidus Labs, told Rotowire.
"What makes this different from any prior sports event isn't just scale, it's exposure. For the first time, these markets, which the CFTC has specifically flagged carry a 'heightened potential for manipulation,' are absorbing a truly global tournament. This means a dramatically larger surface for manipulation, insider trading on injuries, referee assignments, and match outcomes, with activity flowing across regulated and unregulated venues both on- and off-chain simultaneously," he added.
Meir's company works with Kalshi as a trade surveillance partner.
"At volumes like these, trade surveillance infrastructure, which helps detect and prevent manipulation, isn't optional, it's key to protecting users and cementing prediction markets' legitimacy," Meir said.
Prediction Markets Trading Volume Projection
To determine our projected World Cup prediction market trading volume, we used Super Bowl 60 trading volume as a baseline. Our projection sees $1.72 in handle for the 2026 World Cup for every $1 of sports book handle on Super Bowl 60.
Kalshi ($619.89 million) and Polymarket ($762 million) combined for $1.381 billion in Super Bowl game-related trades.
Our figures DO NOT include prediction market trades on outcomes such as "Who Will Appear During The Halftime Show?" or "Which Song Will Bad Bunny Sing First?"
To get our World Cup projections, thus, we multiplied the combined Super Bowl totals $1.381 billion by the same 172% percentage in difference between Super Bowl handle and World Cup that sports books expect.
Prediction market trading volume does not equate to sports book betting handle. Alex Kane, who founded the prediction market and peer-to-peer betting site Sporttrade said a good rule is that $1 in sports betting handle equates to $5 in trading volume in a prediction market. Often times, the same trader moves in and out of the same position on an incremental basis. So even if the price goes from 80 cents to 83 cents on two positions, the total of those two trades are factored into determining the volume.
