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We're less than two weeks away from the 152nd Running of the Roses, with the Kentucky Derby slated to take place inside the hallowed grounds of Churchill Downs on May 2. With that in mind for the staple across sports betting, RotoWire's Claude simulation model ran 100 probabilistic iterations of the full 2026 Kentucky Derby field, weighted by morning line odds, Beyer Speed Figures, prep race performance, and trainer/jockey patterns.
Results reflect projected win likelihood and are not predictions of a single race outcome.
Churchill Downs — Saturday, May 2, 2026 — Probabilistic model weighted by morning line odds, Beyer Speed Figures & prep race form across all 20 projected starters.
Further Ado
Top Sim Winner (22%)
54
Renegade Top-3 Finishes
4
Horses With ≥10 Wins
20
Projected Field
Each bar reflects how many of the 100 probabilistic simulations each horse won. Further Ado emerged as the clear model favorite, winning 22% of runs — nearly double the next-closest contender.
1
Further Ado
22
2
Renegade
12
3
The Puma
11
4
Commandment
10
5
Chief Wallabee
7
6
So Happy
4
7
Potente
4
8
Incredibolt
4
9
Six Speed
4
10
Danon Bourbon
4
11
Emerging Market
3
12
Fulleffort
3
13
Silent Tactic
3
14
Albus
2
15
Golden Tempo
2
16
Right to Party
2
17
Wonder Dean
1
18
Pavlovian
1
19
Chip Honcho
1
20
Iron Honor
0
0510152025
WINS
Stacked bars show each horse's total top-3 finishes across 100 sims, split into win/place/show buckets. Renegade's 54 total top-3 finishes lead the field — even though he won only 12 sims, he finished in the money more than half the time.
Renegade
54
Further Ado
48
The Puma
36
Commandment
32
So Happy
22
Chief Wallabee
18
Potente
12
Emerging Market
11
Incredibolt
10
Wonder Dean
8
Six Speed
7
Fulleffort
7
Silent Tactic
7
Danon Bourbon
6
Albus
5
Golden Tempo
4
Right to Party
4
Pavlovian
4
Chip Honcho
3
Iron Honor
2
Win (1st)
Place (2nd)
Show (3rd)
#
Horse
Trainer
ML Odds
Beyer
Wins
Top 3
Win %
1
Further Ado
Brad Cox
5-1
106
22
48
22%
2
Renegade
Todd Pletcher
4-1
98
12
54
12%
3
The Puma
Gustavo Delgado Sr.
8-1
100
11
36
11%
4
Commandment
Brad Cox
5-1
100
10
32
10%
5
Chief Wallabee
Bill Mott
10-1
99
7
18
7%
6
So Happy
Mark Glatt
12-1
100
4
22
4%
7
Potente
Bob Baffert
20-1
89
4
12
4%
8
Incredibolt
Riley Mott
25-1
88
4
10
4%
9
Six Speed
Bhupat Seemar
65-1
N/A
4
7
4%
10
Danon Bourbon
Manabu Ikezoe
22-1
N/A
4
6
4%
11
Emerging Market
TBD
20-1
89
3
11
3%
12
Fulleffort
Brad Cox
20-1
91
3
7
3%
13
Silent Tactic
Mark Casse
30-1
91
3
7
3%
14
Albus
Riley Mott
40-1
83
2
5
2%
15
Golden Tempo
Cherie DeVaux
35-1
88
2
4
2%
16
Right to Party
Kenny McPeek
50-1
81
2
4
2%
17
Wonder Dean
Daisuke Takayanagi
40-1
N/A
1
8
1%
18
Pavlovian
Doug O'Neill
35-1
90
1
4
1%
19
Chip Honcho
TBD
100-1
82
1
3
1%
20
Iron Honor
TBD
90-1
87
0
2
0%
Further Ado: The Model's Clear Favorite
22 Wins
Brad Cox's Blue Grass Stakes winner ran away with the simulation — 22 wins in 100 iterations, nearly double runner-up Renegade's 12. Backed by the field's highest Beyer (106) and an 11-length Blue Grass romp, the model sees Further Ado as a tier above. At 5-1 morning line, he's priced fairly against his 17% model win probability but outperforms expectations in simulation.
Renegade: The Best Exotic Play
54 Top-3
Todd Pletcher's Arkansas Derby winner led the field in total top-3 finishes with 54 — meaning he hit the board more than half the time. His 12 wins tied for second, but his ceiling of consistency makes him the strongest horizontal-bet anchor in the field. Expect heavy action in trifecta and superfecta builds.
The Top-5 Tier: 62% of Wins
62 Sims
Further Ado, Renegade, The Puma, Commandment, and Chief Wallabee combined for 62 of 100 simulated wins. All five come from top-tier connections (Cox, Pletcher, Delgado, Mott) and all ran Beyers of 98+. If history holds, the winner almost certainly comes from this group — but that still leaves 38% upside for live longshots.
Best Longshot Value: So Happy
22 Top-3
At 12-1, the Santa Anita Derby winner racked up 22 top-3 finishes on just 4 sim wins — better in-the-money consistency than Chief Wallabee (18 top-3) despite sitting a tier below in raw wins. That profile — low ceiling, high floor — makes him a prime place/show play and an underrated exotics filler behind the top tier.
The Foreign Wildcards
Unknowns
Japan's Danon Bourbon (22-1) and Wonder Dean (40-1), plus UAE Derby runner-up Six Speed (65-1), all posted surprising sim totals despite lacking North American Beyer figures. Six Speed in particular stunned with 4 wins — all at longshot prices. These are the kinds of outcomes that historically deliver Rich Strike-style shocks at the biggest payoffs.
The Model vs. The ML
Value Watch
Horses whose sim win rate exceeds their ML implied probability represent model value: Further Ado (22% sim vs ~17% ML), The Puma (11% vs ~11%), and Six Speed (4% vs ~1.5%). Horses priced shorter than their model likelihood — like Renegade (4-1 ML vs 12% sim) — may be overbet come post time.
Which Horses Have The Best Shot At Winning?
Our top candidates to win the 152nd Kentucky Derby fall in line for the most part with the current race odds on TwinSpires, with current race favorite Renegade (9-2) projected to place second behind the horse that's directly behind him on the operator's race day odds board.
That's because our top pick for this year's Derby is Brad Cox's Further Ado, who is currently listed as the No. 2 horse, odds wise, at 5-1, with the three-year-old colt from Kentucky having the most wins (out of 100 simulations) with 22, as well as the second-most top three finishes (48, behind Renegade's 54) and the highest simulation win percentage, at 22%.
Cox's other horse in this year's field (Commandment) finished with the fourth most wins out of our 100 simulations, with 10, while Gustavo Delgado's The Puma was in between Renegade and Commandment, taking home 11 wins overall.
Like Cox, Renegade's trainer (Todd Pletcher) is no stranger to success at Churchill Downs, with the veteran trainer guiding two thoroughbreds (Super Saver in 2010 and Always Dreaming in 2017) to Derby victories, while also winning the Kentucky Oaks in 2021 with his horse, Donegal.
Delgado's lone Kentucky Derby victory came in 2023, when Mage won it all, which is a feat he'll try to double up on come May 2, while the trainer of our No. 5 horse (Bill Mott) has two Derby wins to his name, doing so in 2019 (via disqualification) with Country House before doubling up last year with Sovereignty.
This year, Mott's best Kentucky Derby suitor (Chief Wallabee) finished our simulations with the fifth-most victories (seven), which falls in line with his pre-race odds on TwinSpires, with the three-year-old bay colt holding 10-1 odds (alongside Delgado's The Puma) right now.
Which Horses Present The Best Longshot Potential?
While each of our top five horses, projections wise, largely fall at or near the top of TwinSpire's current Kentucky Derby odds board, the biggest mover overall was Manabu Ikezoe's Danon Bourbon, who finished tied for the sixth most victories overall (with four), despite currently holding the 19th best odds (50-1) on the in-house odds board at Churchill Downs.
While Danon Bourbon's long odds (50-1) would be quite the storyline, it would be far from the longest of longshot horses to finish atop the Fastest Two Minutes in Sports, as Rich Strike in 2022 (80-1) and Giacomo in 2005 (50-1) did so in similar betting position as Ikezoe's colt.
Regardless of who wins come May 2, we should have a wide-open field, with plenty of top-tier thoroughbreds making the rounds inside Churchill Downs in what should be an action-packed 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby.
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Christopher has covered the sports betting industry for more than seven years, and takes the lead on both sports analysis and legislative developments for GDC Group. His work has also appeared on ArizonaSports.com, the Tucson Weekly and the Green Valley News.
