This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Miami Open continues Thursday with second-round singles action for both the men and women. The top 32 seeds in both draws had first-round byes at this outdoor hard-court ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 event, so this will be the first action of the tournament for the seeded players against unseeded opponents who have already won a match. A pair of women who pulled off recent hard-court upsets will be looking for repeat results, while a possible title contender on the men's side is available at a discount, and there's value to be found in a clash between two American men. Match odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting the early rounds can be tricky, as this is our first look in these conditions at many of the players in action. Nonetheless, some enticing options stand out, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Shelby Rogers (+160) vs. Jelena Ostapenko
Ostapenko leads the head-to-head between these two 3-1, but Rogers won their most recent matchup in straight sets at Indian Wells less than two weeks ago. The two previous times they met before that were both three-setters, won 7-6 (4) in the third and 6-3 in the third by Ostapenko. In other words, the 48th-ranked Rogers tends to play the 12th-ranked Ostapenko tough. The crowd will be behind the American here, and Ostapenko's serving inconsistencies tend to lead to streaky results. In her previous seven tournaments, Ostapenko has made at least the semifinals three times but also lost her first match three times.
Qiang Wang (+180) vs. Coco Gauff
In another rematch of a recent upset, Wang will try to take out Gauff again after doing so in convincing 6-4, 6-2 fashion in the first round of the Australian Open. The 30-year-old veteran got through qualifying and already has three match wins under her belt at this tournament, while this will be Gauff's first match in these conditions. Gauff's a native of nearby Delray Beach, Florida and will get plenty of crowd support, but she's usually supported everywhere she goes. If anything, the 18-year-old sometimes struggles under the intense pressure on her, and Gauff will have to deal with that as the clear favorite in this match.
Honorable Mention:
Fabio Fognini (+135) vs. Taro Daniel
Lock It In
Jannik Sinner (-235) vs. Emil Ruusuvuori
Sinner pulling out of Indian Wells due to an illness last week seems to have driven his odds down a bit heading into his first match in Miami, but unlike an injury, Sinner's illness should have no lasting ill effects on his game as long as he's recovered enough to take the court. Just ask Rafael Nadal whether being sick before the Australian Open affected his on-court performance. Ruusuvuori actually has a win over Sinner, but that came at a challenger in January 2020 when Sinner was just 18 years old. Sinner has won both of their subsequent meetings in straight sets, and he's a far more accomplished player now as the world No. 11 at age 20.
Alexander Bublik (-230) vs. Daniel Elahi Galan
The 30th-seeded Bublik should overpower world No. 118 Galan. The 159-pound Colombian is your typical clay-court grinder – his first-round win over John Millman was the first hard-court main draw match he's played all year, falling in qualifying at both the Australian Open and Indian Wells. Millman didn't have the weapons to take control against Galan, but Bublik certainly does. The 6-foot-5 Bublik led the ATP in aces in 2021, and the big server has some impressive results under his belt in 2022. He beat Alexander Zverev en route to a hard-court title in Montpellier and added a quality win over Andy Murray at Indian Wells earlier this month.
Honorable Mention:
Petra Kvitova (-475) vs. Clara Burel
Value Bet
Frances Tiafoe (+100) vs. Brandon Nakashima
It's curious that Tiafoe's a slight underdog in this one. He has a substantial edge in ranking at No. 31 compared to No. 80 for Nakashima, and Tiafoe's 2-0 head-to-head record includes a convincing 6-4, 6-4 win when these two Americans faced off at Indian Wells less than two weeks ago. If anything, the faster court conditions in Miami compared to Indian Wells should play in Tiafoe's favor given his edge in firepower on the serve and forehand.
Diego Schwartzman (-130) vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis
Kokkinakis seems to be more focused on his doubles team with Nick Kyrgios than on singles these days. He got off to a hot start in his home country of Australia, but since the start of the Australian Open, Kokkinakis is just 2-4 in matches outside of qualifying, and both of his wins came against players ranked outside the top 80. While Kokkinakis has the weapons to trouble the 13th-seeded Schwartzman, the rock-solid Argentine will likely wear him down with his relentless attacking baseline game. Schwartzman's 9-4 against top-100 opponents in 2022, and the 97th-ranked Kokkinakis is barely in the top 100.
Honorable Mention:
Aslan Karatsev (-135) vs. Ugo Humbert
