This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The BNP Paribas Open continues on the outdoor hard courts of Indian Wells, California on Saturday with second-round action in both the men's and women's draws. This will be our first opportunity to get a look at the seeded players, some of whom should benefit from comfortable matchups while others face difficult draws at the first ATP Masters 1000 and second WTA 1000 tournament of 2022. Match odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting the first match for a player can be tricky, especially since the seeds had byes and will be facing opponents who have already had the opportunity to adapt to the conditions and court speed. Nonetheless, there are still some options that stand out, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Christopher Eubanks (+340) vs. Casper Ruud
Ruud's a top-10 player, but he undoubtedly prefers to play on clay, as the Norwegian has already bagged a clay-court title this year but is just 3-2 on hard courts. Meanwhile, Eubanks just logged a quality 5-7, 7-6 (8), 6-4 win over countryman Maxime Cressy, who recently made the fourth round at the Australian Open. All the pressure will be on Ruud, while Eubanks is playing with house money after escaping his first-round nail-biter, so the big-hitting American can swing freely in this one.
Marta Kostyuk (+130) vs. Elise Mertens
Mertens rarely loses to players she should definitely beat, but the 20th-seeded Belgian is just 3-5 against opponents ranked in the top 60 this year. The 19-year-old Kostyuk is already in the top 60 at No. 54 in the world, and she's notched a pair of wins over top-40 opponents in 2022. Kostyuk got all she could handle from Maryna Zanevska in a 6-7 (5), 7-6 (6), 7-5 first-round thriller, but winning a close match like that often helps settle you down in the next round as long as you recover physically, which shouldn't be an issue for the young Ukrainian.
Honorable Mention:
Leylah Fernandez (+130) vs. Amanda Anisimova
Lock It In
Rafael Nadal (-600) vs. Sebastian Korda
This isn't at all a knock on Korda, who's one of the most promising young players in the world. Nadal's simply on a different level right now. Not only is Nadal 15-0 in 2022 — all on hard courts — but the Australian Open champion hasn't even dropped a set against anyone outside the top 30. Nadal's easy money at -600.
Gael Monfils (-240) vs. Filip Krajinovic
Monfils has beaten Krajinovic in all three of their previous meetings, all of which came on hard courts. Krajinovic was just 1-5 against top-100 players this year until his first-round win against fellow Serb Dusan Lajovic, while the 26th-seeded Monfils is 7-3 against top-100 competition in 2022, so this should be a straightforward affair for the favored Frenchman.
Honorable Mention:
Naomi Osaka (-300) vs. Veronika Kudermetova
Value Bet
Petra Kvitova (-120) vs. Aliaksandra Sasnovich
To use a seasonally appropriate college basketball analogy, Sasnovich is like a team from a mid-major conference, while Kvitova's a battle-tested Power 5 blue blood. Sure, Sasnovich's 12-4 record this year is impressive at first glance, but she hadn't beaten a top-40 opponent until taking out Maria Camila Osorio Serrano in the first round, and Serrano didn't even finish the match. On the other hand, Kvitova's a two-time Grand Slam champion whose 5-6 record includes straight-sets wins over Camila Giorgi and Aryna Sabalenka. As long as Kvitova's over the wrist injury that knocked her out of Doha last month, she should be viewed as a comfortable favorite against Sasnovich.
Honorable Mention:
Jenson Brooksby (-125) vs. Karen Khachanov
