This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The BNP Paribas Open continues on the hard courts of Indian Wells, California on Friday, as the men wrap up the first round while the seeded women take the court for the first time in the second round. A few players returning from extended absences coupled with a few rematches of recent clashes between familiar foes make for some interesting betting opportunities as the first ATP Masters 1000 and second WTA 1000 tournament of 2022 unfolds. Match odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting the opening round at any tournament can be tricky, as you can never be sure about how players will adapt to the conditions and court speed at any particular tournament, but there are still some options that stand out, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Aljaz Bedene (+300) vs. Kamil Majchrzak
The rankings don't tell the full story in this one, as Bedene's slipped to No. 133 in the world because he hasn't played since July due to the aftereffects of COVID-19. He was ranked in the top 60 prior to the extended absence, which is better than Majchrzak's current spot at No. 75. While Majchrzak has significantly more recent match experience, his confidence won't be high heading into this one, as he's dropped three matches in a row, most recently falling to 165th-ranked Nuno Borges.
Honorable Mention:
Beatriz Haddad Maia (+185) vs. Clara Tauson
Lock It In
Andy Murray (-310) vs. Taro Daniel
Daniel shocked Murray down under with a straight-sets upset at the Australian Open, but the greats are excellent at adjusting, and Murray got his revenge with a 6-2, 6-2 drubbing in Doha last month. This meeting should resemble the latter matchup, as Daniel's win at the Australian Open can be chalked up to Murray's inability to recover physically from a five-set marathon against Nikoloz Basilashvili in the previous round. There's no such mitigating factor for the 34-year-old Brit here, so Murray should take care of business handily against his 106th-ranked opponent.
Karolina Pliskova (-280) vs. Danka Kovinic
Pliskova would normally be an overwhelming favorite in a matchup like this one, but she's available at a discount because this is her first action since November due to a hand injury. The last time she took the court was in the WTA Finals, where she notched a pair of wins over top-eight opponents in three matches. If the No. 7 seed plays up to her capabilities, she should have no trouble navigating past world No. 71 Kovinic.
Honorable Mention:
Botic Van de Zandschulp (-300) vs. Tennys Sandgren
Value Bet
Emma Raducanu (-105) vs. Caroline Garcia
Raducanu's a great value as a slight underdog in this one. A blister and hip injury have derailed the early portion of her 2022 campaign, but the 19-year-old reigning US Open champion is a far superior player to Garcia when healthy. Garcia's coming off a semifinal run in Lyon and isn't an easy opponent, but listing her as a favorite against Raducanu is bold considering Raducanu's career singles record is a highly impressive 77-28.
Adrian Mannarino (+120) vs. Brandon Nakashima
Since the start of the Australian Open, Mannarino's 8-0 against players ranked outside the top 25 and a respectable 2-5 against top-25 opponents. The 66th-ranked Frenchman has been playing better than his ranking indicates, not to mention that one of the wins in the former category came against Nakashima last month in Delray Beach. Meanwhile, the 80th-ranked American doesn't quite seem ready to take the next step in his game at age 20, as Nakashima's 2-5 in his last seven matches, including a trio of losses to players ranked outside the top 50.
Honorable Mention:
Ugo Humbert (-135) vs. Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune
