The men's semifinals will take center stage Friday as the only singles action on the docket at the Miami Open. A pair of rising young talents face off with what would be a first career Masters 1000 final appearance on the line in the first semifinal, while the second semifinal features a familiar rivalry that has been decidedly one-sided of late.
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All men's singles matches at ATP Masters 1000 events such as the Miami Open are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Friday's men's semifinal matches.
Miami Open Tennis Picks: Fils vs. Lehecka
Arthur Fils (-163) vs. Jiri Lehecka (+133)
Fils has broken through to his first Masters 1000 semifinal, though it was always just a matter of time until the 21-year-old Frenchman got this far considering he has now made at least the quarterfinals in five of his last eight Masters 1000 events played. A multi-month absence due to a stress fracture in his back has depressed Fils' ranking, but he shouldn't take too long to climb back into the top 15 from his current No. 31 spot, and his result at this tournament will help Fils' cause regardless of Friday's outcome. He's back to pre-injury form and then some, with an 11-2 record in his last 13 matches. Fils' only losses during this strong stretch have come against Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev, and this recent run includes a 6-3, 6-3 win over Lehecka in Doha, which gave Fils a 2-1 head-to-head edge, all on hard courts. The 21st-seeded Lehecka will be the highest seed Fils has faced in this tournament, and Fils is coming off three-set battles against No. 24 seed Valentin Vacherot and No. 22 seed Tommy Paul, the latter of which featured three tiebreaks and was decided 8-6 in the third-set tiebreak.
Lehecka also dealt with some injuries over the past couple seasons, but he's healthy now and is a top-20 talent despite being ranked just outside of there for now at No. 22. His forehand isn't quite as big as Fils', but Lehecka doesn't lack power and has a well-rounded game as a strong mover with a sturdy backhand. The 24-year-old Czech has benefited from a relatively easy path to reach his second career Masters 1000 semifinal, as his only win over a seed in this tournament came against sixth-seeded American Taylor Fritz, who is battling knee tendinitis. Lehecka has 28 aces compared to just two double faults in seven sets across his last four matches, and taking care of his serve will be key for him against Fils, as the Frenchman has yet to get broken this tournament but still has room for improvement as a returner. Lehecka has the edge in freshness, Fils has been in better form recently, but at the end of the day, this match could hinge on which player handles the moment better with an opportunity to break through to a Masters 1000 final for the first time at stake.
Miami Open Men's Semifinal Prediction: Fils def. Lehecka 7-6, 4-6, 6-4
Miami Open Tennis Picks: Sinner vs. Zverev
Jannik Sinner (-800) vs. Alexander Zverev (+529)
Not much has changed since these two met two weeks ago in the semifinals of Indian Wells. Sinner once again hasn't dropped a set en route to the SF, and he's now riding an ATP-record streak of 30 consecutive sets won at Masters 1000 events. Zverev once again looks to be in pretty good form, having dropped only one set in this tournament, as was the case in Indian Wells prior to his matchup with Sinner. The second-ranked Italian defeated the fourth-ranked German 6-2, 6-4 in that match, extending Sinner's winning streak against Zverev to six consecutive matches after Zverev won four of their first five encounters. The gap between these two has been growing, with Sinner's last three wins all coming in straight sets.
Zverev can normally get away with measured aggression, hitting big targets on his serve to keep up his elite first-serve percentage while often taking a passive approach in rallies and relying on his consistency and movement more than power. That approach clearly doesn't work against Sinner, who is just as consistent and capable defensively while also possessing the best mix of power and placement on the ATP Tour. Zverev will need to redline his game to have a chance here, which means taking more risks by pushing for aces and winners earlier in rallies. The hard courts in Miami play noticeably faster than those at Indian Wells, so there is a higher reward to be gained from taking risks since there is less time to defend. With seven Masters 1000 titles, two ATP Finals titles and an Olympic gold medal under his belt, Zverev has repeatedly shown the ability to raise his level to the point needed to beat the world's best, especially in best-of-three set tennis. It's unlikely that Zverev can maintain the level needed to win two out of three sets here, but taking a set to end Sinner's streak here is definitely a realistic accomplishment.
Miami Open Men's Semifinal Prediction: Sinner def. Zverev 6-2, 6-7, 6-3
